It’s the moment many of us have been waiting for. ITV has now posted the full week by week voting statistics for 2012 X Factor. You can find it here. As usual, we will provide a more thorough analysis in the near future when we do our review of the series. But for now these are our initial thoughts. Do let us know what you make of them in the comments section below.
1. YouGov were on the money in their final poll
The Saturday night percentages were James 51.7 followed by Jahmene on 31.5 and Chris on 16.8. (YouGov’s figures were James 50%, Jahmene 35%, Chris 15%). The contest had effectively been decided on the Saturday night. James was too far ahead at this point, barring a miracle for Jahmene on Sunday.
2. So was The Star with their leaks
Chris won the public vote every single live show up to and including week 7 with Jahmene in second place every single time up to this point. That’s exactly what The Star told us with leaks published on the Sundays after weeks 3, 6 and 8.
3. Chris only just made the final
In week 8 however, James Arthur streaked ahead with 40.7% after his breakout rendition of ‘Let’s Get It On’. That’s one heck of a sympathy bounce after his week 7 singoff. Chris’s trajectory continued to falter and he dropped from 2nd in week 8 to 3rd in the semi-final, only just scraping into the final by 0.6% ahead of Union J.
4. Ella’s trajectory was basically a gradual downward one
Third place in the first week was the best she managed. But given the thinning field, her share of the vote essentially became less and less impressive and she was 1.6% behind James in that week 7 singoff. Week 7 saw just over 5% cover the five acts behind Chris.
5. Union J would have won each deadlock had it happened
The boyband polled more than Jade, District 3 and Rylan. These were the only occasions when the judges didn’t take it to deadlock, choosing to save the boys by majority decision instead. The result would not have been affected had deadlock taken place.
UPDATE: We think it makes things clearer to look at each act’s vote as a proportion of the average, given the differing number of acts who were in each week.
So, for example:
- In week 1 there were 13 acts. The average vote was therefore 7.69% (because 100 divided by 13 is 7.69). Christopher got 28.8%. That’s 3.74 times as much as the average (or, to put it another way, 374% of the average).
- In week 7, there were 6 acts. The average vote was therefore 16.67% (because 100 divided by 6 is 16.67). Christopher topped the vote with 26.4%. That’s 1.58 times as much as the average (or, to put it another way, 158% of the average).
- So while on the face of it, Christopher’s week 1 and week 7 performances might look similar (28.8% and 26.4%), comparing them to the average vote shows a large drop-off, from 374% of the average to 158% of the average.
Here’s a pdf we’ve quickly done with these calculations for all the acts in all the weeks. (F1 is the final freeze. F2 is the votes cast between the final freeze and the lines closing – we can calculate these by working from Christopher’s total in the vote freeze and final vote count, assuming that Christopher ceased to accumulate votes after he was eliminated. It shows that 56% of the votes in the final were cast after Chris was eliminated on Saturday – and of those votes, James won 55%.) If you spot any errors on this, please let us know in the comments.
And here’s a graph of the trajectories of the first six. You can see clearly why producers must never have been too worried about Christopher – he was always coming gently back to the pack. And you can see what a huge bounce James got in week 8 after his week 7 singoff, riding that momentum all the way to the final.
Do please continue to share what you’ve spotted from these statistics in the comments below.