X Factor 2012: Richard Betsfactor’s Monster Hunch

The lovely team at Sofabet asked if I fancied writing a couple of bits and pieces this year for the site. Why not, let’s share the love.

As ever, a couple of disclaimers – I know nothing and this is just a half baked theory of an article. Feel free to rip it to pieces in the comments! I should also add that, on this occasion, I have put my money where my mouth is.

It’s just after 8pm. 20th December 2003, a new UK record has been broken. 10.26 million votes have been cast for the winner of Pop Idol. The most text votes a UK TV show has ever had in history. Interactivity records are being smashed.

Ant screams the name MICHELLE. A livid Pete Waterman can barely disguise his disgust on screen and quits shortly after. His incredulity was reasonable. In the months that followed, Michelle McManus had a huge number one single, her album went to number 3 and her second single limped in at #16 before she was dropped.

I was in Perthshire six years later and switched on a pretty ropey “This Morning” style show on STV at 5pm. Who was hosting it? She’s still a bit of a celeb up in Scotland, in the last fortnight Michelle’s attended the Scottish BAFTA’s, turned on Christmas Lights in Glasgow and performed at charity bashes. Number of top ten hits to date in any country…? One.

McManus’ win, with over 6.1 million votes, was the first warning bell for producers keen to make genuine recording stars out of the winners.

Before the planet’s greatest TV blogging sensation, Betsfactor (my noisy, hyperbolic, tongue in cheek X Factor betting blog), started last year, some friends asked me for a tip. Who’s going to win the X Factor 2011? Luckily Betsfactor hadn’t started; I was fairly convinced that a woman with a superb voice, Jade Richards, was going to win in 2011. “7-1 favourite that’s great value” I professed. She crashed out at judges houses, and failed to make it through bootcamp this year.

The last two years have seen some extremely strong girls get through, but the producers are normally keen to get people from regions of the UK into the mix, so why was Jade ditched, when they could have had a Scottish contestant?

It was all a bit “once bitten”, “Michelle McManus” to me. Don’t create a monster you can’t slay.

Last year, despite all the damage I believe they inflicted on the format, the producers appeared ruthless and very efficient with their kills. If you were marked, you were gone. I suspect this maybe made them a little over confident and willing to take more risks this year. As I said last time, I wonder if the X Factor judges screwed up by letting the viewers, hungry to get going with the interactivity, vote on contestants ranked by industry experts 13th – 16th best. Once punters start supporting their chosen “little rejected monster” they can’t emotionally switch their vote, until the monster disappears.

The producers probably felt they could easily label Christopher as cheesy, shove him in a red and black cocktail bar or a shiny suit and mow him down after a couple of weeks.

Oooops.

In the last six years, 50% of acts winning or coming runner up, have been from places with a very strong regional identity.

Let’s have a look at each 50%. If you were Syco, which portfolio would you pick?

Strong regional: Leon Jackson, Rhydian, Joe McElderry, Rebecca Ferguson, Marcus Collins, Ray Quinn.

Generic: Little Mix, Matt Cardle, Olly Murs, JLS, Alexandra Burke, Leona Lewis.

With a couple of exceptions, it’s quite staggering. You could argue that Londoners voted Leona/Alex and Essex Olly etc etc, but I’m talking about really strong regional identity here. In this case, Scousers, Geordies, The Scots and the Welsh.

Could it be argued that maybe some of these regional acts weren’t that great and were being voted through on something other than their superb musical talent? Can you name a Leon Jackson hit?

THE SENTIMENT

One of the UK’s most read regional papers is the Liverpool Echo, with a huge circulation for county the size of Merseyside. Clicking on the, albeit limited, comments on one of their stories about Maloney, you get “Learn a lesson tulisa ,,,,scousers get behind their own,,,,,,” another guy states he’s not a fan of the show, but all cowell suggests “the rest of the UK should vote in order that Maloney goes out then that will actually lead to me voting for him. I don’t like Snides”. A couple of comments on a newspaper website are far from proof that he’s going to win it, but this sentiment will be felt by some on Merseyside. A county that has had 3 contestants in the final two in the last six years.

In the last two weeks, the judges have made a complete dogs dinner of trying to nuke him. I’ve got some stuff on Betsfactor and plenty of remarks in the comments section here felt he looks bullied. Louis sniggering during his performance, Tulisa’s sulky face during his performances, the backgrounds looking ridiculous and crucially on two successive shows the judges have fallen over themselves to point out that the staging isn’t chosen by Christopher, nor themselves, but rather by shadowy people who never get mentioned. The producers try and help with appalling dancing, songs that aren’t that popular and plenty of drip dripping in VT’s that make him look slightly full of himself, but the judges screw it up and people get the impression that that nice lad Christopher needs their vote. When on stage, Christopher always looks humble and doesn’t react to the negativity which helps with the bullying feeling.

Christopher might even get lucky and a sort of “show Cowell who’s boss” social media campaign may emerge. Producers might not mind much, because JamJar will still get the record sales and they might get better viewing figures with a bit of controversy for the final. You don’t have to win it to make Cowell money. It damages the franchise to have all these winners that don’t go on to have success; but producers haven’t seemed to be too careful about protecting the brand recently.

THE LEAKS

Let’s turn to the Daily Star’s voting leaks. Traditionally they have been very accurate and the specific information from them suggests it’s likely to be correct. This isn’t some sort of story where they say “a source says”, or “Cowell’s worried”, this is a story where they make very specific points in very clear terms. The Sun also had stories suggesting that Christopher is topping the voting. Two different papers, both saying the same thing, and at no stage has he been in the bottom two.

THE CORE

This next half baked point is terrible for several reasons, firstly it’s just based on absolutely no knowledge or facts. Secondly, it’s unintentionally derogatory. I really, truly don’t mean it like that, but it’s something I’m just musing on. Thirdly, it’s quite similar to Daniel’s fantastic article on Monday, but who cares.

Maybe there’s a core and satellite of X Factor viewers. The CORE are people who stay in and watch TV often, people maybe on lower incomes who read the Daily Mirror, parents who stay in, OAPs who never do anything else on a Saturday apart from flick over to PricedropTV in the breaks, and Facebook obsessed single women who watch circa 40 hours a week of this stuff. There’s also a SATELLITE of more urbane, maybe 20-40’s, people with options on a Saturday night. They read the Sunday Times and the Mail Online app and are middle managers – they claim they started watching so they can “relate to the girls in the office”. The sort of people who have dinner parties and eat Harvest Crunch. These guys are only passive viewers and they LOVE James Arthur.

In a similar way, there are core and satellite voters. The core are the passionate fans who watch Olly on ITV2 and attend the X Factor tour each year. The satellite voters might vote occasionally, but for the novelty factor; almost so they have something to entertain their friends with on Monday – “I can’t believe I actually voted – but James Arthur was that good” sort of people.

Let’s make it even simpler. The Satellite are people who might have sex this weekend. The Core are people who almost certainly won’t.

This year, the ratings are down, say 2m. I reckon they’ve lost the satellite viewers and the satellite voters. James Arthur and Ella Henderson are more likely to appeal to satellite viewers and satellite voters. Christopher Maloney and Jahmene (the greyer vote as mentioned on Monday) appeal more to the core.

So, can the satellite voters save the X Factor from another embarrassing winner? I say embarrassing because history shows these sorts of regional winners tend to perform badly when it comes down to sales and second singles!

Last year, the satellites were forced to sit through four hours before we got to Jesy screaming. Half of them were confused to see Amelia Lily; they could have sworn she didn’t make it past judges houses. The audience figures, although good, were down and I suspect they will be down again this year, as the show’s peaked. The satellite viewers and voters, burnt last year from a very long winded, drawn out final, (with strange similarities to this article) might not turn out.

THE STAT FACTS

The key number for our monster hunch is 33.4%. To become a guaranteed finalist, Christopher needs 33.4% of the votes cast this weekend;  if we assume each act gets 15% of the vote, it’s just 28%.  If there’s no sing off, he needs just 25.1%.

Can he achieve this? Quite possibly. Will satellite voters turn out for the semi final? Probably not.

The leaks, the regional power, the support since the start, the core only watching and voting, the anti bullying sentiment and the fact that last week he must have polled a chunky enough number to steer clear of the bottom two, suggest to me the monster created and uncontrollable may roar into the final. If leaks are correct and he’s been top, he must have netted at the very very least 17% last week and 20% this week. The Sun claimed a few weeks back that one week he’d netted DOUBLE what other contestants had scored.

Let’s now look at the final. The problem for the producers is the way the final is run. They never reset the votes, they simply “freeze” them (maybe they will change this!). Once you have voted to win, your vote remains on the pile. No act, since figures were released, has ever managed to convert enough “second preference” votes after a third placed act is eliminated, to overturn a winner’s lead. This is only based on four years data, but if you start the show leading, you end the show winning. Indeed, other than 4% between Alex and JLS “Lead the semi and win the final” is also true.

To qualify for the final two, Christopher again needs 33.4% of the votes cast before the vote freeze. Can he do that…? Will the satellite voters be knocking around to shake things up a bit by this point?

Commenter EM mentioned Nate Silver the other day, Nate feels those who make predictions would do better when they nuance them and make people aware that they are talking in probabilities.

At the time of writing Christopher is 6-1 to win. A lot of us are comfortable taking a price and then hedging later to lock in profits.

Is Christopher going to win? Not sure.

Is there really only a 14% chance of Christopher winning the show?

BUY.

P.S. In 2013 I’ll be writing on all sorts of other topics – You can follow me on twitter @straffon and betsfactor.com for the usual nonsense.

41 comments to X Factor 2012: Richard Betsfactor’s Monster Hunch

  • eurovicious

    It goes without saying that I completely agree with you and have also put my dinars where my mouth is.

  • Boki

    Is Christopher going to win? Not sure and I don’t care.
    But for all reasons you mention I took him @40,20,10 and also few days ago @7 hoping he will reach top2, than it’s easy to divide between them. If he lands in the sing-off on Sunday there will be plenty of time for payout. My only worry at the moment is first day of the final if he can get from top3 to top2 but that’s another story…

  • R

    As much as I like the Betsfactor site, I have so many points to disagree with.

    There seems to be a presumption that TPTB are desperate to get rid of Maloney.
    For me the whole thing has been a piece of well engineered reverse psychology.
    As I’m mentioned several times, previous acts have not been afforded the same level of publicity about being bullied as Chris has received.
    Compare Janet last year to Chris this.
    They point out the big laser eyes for Chris, they openly sneer at him, they make it clear that they don’t like him and want him out, he gets the chance to defend himself and look upset on screen. He is even allowed to do major newspaper interviews saying how much he’s being bullied. Was Janet afforded any of these options? No, because then she would have had an army of viewers disgusted at the way she been treated. And bullying a “sweet 16yr old girl from the middle of nowhere” would have brought on a massive backlash from younger, more proactive, viewers.

    What happens when Chris points out the show is bullying him? The older viewers pick up the phone to show their support, but they don’t switch off because it’s how they spend their weekend evenings.
    So the shows meets its income target through the additional phone votes, not just for Chris, but for James who the younger voters are now backing with multiple calls to stop Chris from winning.

    I believe the articles in the Sun & Mirror saying the show has been told not to bully him to stop the sympathy vote will actually propel Chris into the final.
    Between the othe three acts, Union J will struggle to garner any additional voters, James may come down off a bounce and I have a feeling that Jahmene might be closer to the bottom than people think.

    • Jake Kl

      1) They are less professional this year than any other year.
      2) Chris is older than Janet and may have more freedom from producers as to what he can or cant do. (interviews for example)
      3) Their strategy has been backfiring week on week due to low ratings.
      4)Big antivote this year as well

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        The weekly voting figures (as reported by the Star) have continued to shock TPTB, which has triggered them into going nuclear. They have thought they don’t have time for subtlety.
        Plus they have had their successes through the series. Widely predicted kills on MK1, Kye, DS3 will have reassured them they still “have it”.
        In particular, the one-shot take-down of the sublime and beautiful Jade, as early as week 4 (they kept Rylan in for twice that length) will have sealed over any looming cracks in their confidence.

        I wonder if they have teams of private investigators (or Daily Mirror journalists!) delving into Chris’s private life, desperate to discover/create more Sunday morning shockers on him.
        I imagine their wet dream would be to find an elderly Liverpool lady who will allege that, in some dastardly way, Chris has wronged her.

        • TommySauce

          Regarding investigating contestants, I suspect they don’t need to go to that sort of trouble – instead they’ll take the approach parliamentary whips allegedly take when new MPs come into office: sit them down on day one and tell them that they can only “protect” them from the press if they know the full details of all the skeletons in the closet that will eventually come out.

          (There might even be a scary clause in the XFactor contract which demands full disclosure of all potential stories the press may get hold off and the contestants risk being in breach if a front page appears about something they’ve not previously ‘fessed up to TPTB earlier.)

          They can then leak these stories to the press when it suits them, or hold the threat of leaking them over the contestants to make sure they play ball.

  • EM

    I’ll stick with my original thoughts that the producers are quite happy for Chris to stick around for a bit, he’s good for ratings and press coverage. I’ve also long said that they don’t really care who wins as long as there is marketable talent in the top 4. So Richard’s point about Christopher being a decent bet is a good one.

    Producers can’t fail to have noticed the power of the Liverpool vote with the experience of Ray, Rebecca and Marcus too. If they know what they’re doing then they must be aware he can go almost all the way.

  • Jake Kl

    Theres also a chance UnionJ will bounce higher than James this weekend which might introduce a sing off in the semis (with 4 acts in the semis that is)

  • R

    Hi Jake,

    1) If they are being less professional, they wouldn’t keep making the same mistakes. SC wouldn’t allow it and heads would roll pretty quickly.
    Louis & Tulisa, who were expert in their behaviour last year, don’t suddenly become openly sneering without permission.

    2) I would presume that something in the contract prevents contestants from openly discussing what happens behind the scenes or else we would have heard more mention it before. I believe Chris could only be talking about bullying with the shows permission & guidance.

    3&4)The strategy is to make as much money from voters. Therefore the strategy is a success. The most successful part of the strategy has been to garner more votes from lower viewers by creating a big antivote from the viewers who might not usually vote.

    This doesn’t mean I think Chris will win, just that there has been a reason for the show keeping him in for so long.

    We may need to agree to disagree on this one.

    • Rave

      Simon Cowell is way too busy with X Factor USA to oversee X Factor UK.

    • TommySauce

      I tend to agree with you R – it seems difficult to believe that TPTB have lost control so spectacularly and Cowell hasn’t even picked up the phone over the last six or so weeks to read the riot act to someone. As many, many people have already suggested, if he *really* was against Chris progressing, he’d have just sent an email instructing them to use a few inappropriate song choices.

      It seems clear the contract with all contestants contains some sort of gagging clause – and regardless of Producer incompetence or not this series, it’s unlikely they’ve been so lax they’ve stopped getting contestants to sign up to a contract and are not enforcing its clauses…so I completely agree that if anyone (contestant or judge) says something on the show, or in the press, it is very much “on message” regardless of how “off message” it might appear.

      And yes, I’ll agree a third time, the XFactor machine is very aware of the profitability of causing controversy and motivating people to vote when they might not have done, and for reasons other than liking the act they vote for: the “FYIWVHYTM” (fuck you I won’t vote how you tell me – granted, it’s an acronym which needs work); the “CWBFIXW” (Cowell will be furious if X wins – these aren’t working are they?) vote; the “IHXFAWIDTMSIBIDBVS” (I hate X Factor and what it’s done to music, so I’ll bring it down by voting subversively – no…really not working).

  • Shoulders

    Until the show makes Christopher sing a couple of crap songs they want him back the following week, X Factor is another Christmas pantomime and Christopher was cast accordingly, they should have him dressed as Widow Twanky with full face paint

  • Just a quick one, think someone pointed out YouTube views earlier.

    James 1.2mil and 300k for his performances this weekend
    Everyone else less than 200k for either performance.

    Make of that what you will.

    Also I have seen nothing but links to gossip columns and papers this week, with stories surrounding primarily only two acts

    James and Christopher

    Make of that what you wish

  • Phil

    Imagine Christopher’s reaction if he wins.

    IMAGINE IT.

    It will be horrendous. It can not happen. It will be like the wildcard vote result x1000.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Yes, he will be free and sought after to talk extensively, give interviews that provide insights into the the full array of production manipulations, machinations and dirty tricks.
      And with Chris as the X Factor winner, trying to dismiss his claims as sour grapes, out of jealousy, out of bitterness etc is a non-starter.
      He could even collaborate with Sofabet on a book: A Spotter’s Guide to X Factor Dirty Tricks – know, see and name the bulls**t!

    • Lia

      Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeek!!!
      Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!
      Sorry, I know it’s a possibility but I really don’t want to imagine that.

  • Please, noooo Phil. I’m having enough problems imagining the missus’ reaction when she finds the holiday money gone from the biscuit tin (on betting against that), lol.

    • Donald

      More on views here, pays to check the video statistics, figures along way off! Was that James the band or James mentioned with Noel and Artics is post earlier this week. James YouTube is strange. See the big mobile number, remember what I posted few weeks ago?

      Views and discovery

      1,293,710
      Views
      Key discovery events
      A
      First referral from YouTube search: james arthur week 8
      24 Nov 2012 – 14,009 views
      B
      First referral from related video: Rylan Clark sings a Supremes Medley – Live Week 8 – The X Factor UK 2012
      24 Nov 2012 – 17,687 views
      C
      First referral from related video: James Arthur sing Abba’s SOS – Live Week 8 – The X Factor UK 2012
      24 Nov 2012 – 21,994 views
      D
      First embedded on: facebook.com
      24 Nov 2012 – 23,442 views
      E
      First referral from YouTube search: james arthur
      24 Nov 2012 – 32,350 views
      F
      First referral from YouTube search: james arthur let’s get it on
      24 Nov 2012 – 43,618 views
      G
      First referral from a subscriber module
      24 Nov 2012 – 111,890 views
      H
      First view from a mobile device
      24 Nov 2012 – 441,697 views

  • R

    Last year he kept on regular contact via video conferencing. One of the contestants mentioned him shouting at them for not stepping up to the mark.
    If he’s got time to speak to the contestants he will have time for discussions with the execs.

  • EM

    Some really good points in this post and the previous Grey post that point to Christopher being here to stay… Well until the final.

    X Factor has never really been cool or credible in its acts. Steve, Shayne, Leona, Leon, Alexandra, Joe, Matt, Little Mix. You could take them all home to meet your gran. And she’d probably tell them she’d voted for them.

    Christopher is in many ways Steve Brookstien dug back up and reheated. With an added regional vote.

    Shayne, Leona, JLS, Alexandra and One Direction have given the show a sense of relevance rather than being a karaoke contest but only a sense of it. It’s always been a safe show full of ballads, crooner numbers and slowed down versions of the hits.

    There is a sense they use the show to get younger more credible acts as far as they can to launch a career, see Cher Lloyd, but otherwise it’s very safe, very traditional and won’t scare anyone. Hence why the more mainstream and middle of the road you are (hi Marcus, Joe, Ray, Stacey, etc etc) the better you do.

    One other story comes to mind. Talking to an advertiser in the early series. He’d got a big product that hadn’t aged well, it was traditional and used by kids because it was mainstream and older folks because it was traditional. There was a major new player in the market that was cool, 20 somethings loved it and he wanted people to think of his product like that. So he advertised on the show wanting to attach his product to music and pop culture. Low and behold the perceptions of his product improved, with teenagers and older people, the people he didn’t need but the people who saw his ads on X Factor and bought into them.

    It’s a square show, an older bloke singing well known songs fairly well is going to chime with the audience and stay… Will he win?

  • Chatterbox5200

    I agree with a lot of what has been said on here (and Andrew’s article) and have an additional name to throw into the melting pot… Jai MacDowall. It was widely expected in 2011 that the very highly pimped Ronan Parke would win Britain’s Got Talent, only to be beaten into second place by the much more unfancied MacDowell, who had a very strong regional vote.

    It’s been mentioned several times, that NOT winning X Factor (One Direction, JLS, Olly Murs, etc.) can be more beneficial to an act’s career than actually winning the show. The British public like an underdog, and there is a stigma attached to an X Factor winner, that a hard working runner up does not suffer from. The Cowell machine knows this, and usually will have already signed contracts with acts, before the winner is announced.

    With the later start/end times of the main show on a Saturday night, the perceived audience of X Factor, are often out doing something a little more interesting. Speaking to friends and colleagues, very few free openly admit to watching the show and those that do, tend not to vote. S

    This could also explain why the amount of YouTube views does not always correlate with the number of votes received by an act, as people are only viewing the acts they are interested in to see what the fuss is about, or even after the voting lines have closed. It would also be interesting to see how many of the YouTube views are attributed to people that are not in the UK and therefore not in a position to readily vote.

  • Donald

    Hi Richard, great to see a post, logic there but I still think they will engineer something or they will go well out of their way to, if they don’t he is Houdini not John Wayne and deserves to win.

    Boki has made good point re Top 3 as opposed to Top 2, I am must admit I have no win bet on yet, that what has happened with waiting this year, not over yet though, at the price worth something at the minute but I not 100% convinced just yet.

    I visit here, Betsfactor , and for the amazing scripture,attitude and laugh read The Bitch Factor, wonder if Daniel could get The Bitch Factor to write a piece about Sofabet and Betsfactor and all the that goes on. That would be a best seller and could be fun, Daniel?

    • Thanks for posting this, EM. Bitchy as usual from Peter Robinson but the general thrust stands.

      “This is the uneasy tension at the heart of The X Factor in 2012: it wants to be credible, but it is still on ITV1 on Saturday and Sunday nights. As the Maloney problem shows, you cannot invent a show that any old fool can enter, then complain when any old fool succeeds, and you cannot run the show with a public vote, then undermine and complain about that public vote every week. The tail is wagging the dog. The X Factor is supposed to dictate what Syco releases, not vice versa. For The X Factor’s attempts to impose pretentious notions of credibility on Saturday night telly, a win for Maloney might actually be a fitting punishment.”

      I think Peter Robinson has been reading me…

  • Jake Kl

    For any1 who watched XF in the US, can u tell me what the producers are trying to do with 5th Harmony? VT was very positive imo but the staging was so off-putting (all 5 girls in flames)

    • lolhart

      Hi Jake KI, I’ve been a bit confused by Fifth Harmony’s treatment so far. I think Simon would actually prefer them to go the distance over Emblem 3, but the latter have proved more popular to date. I don’t think the manipulation on the US version mirrors the UK show exactly. Some of the staging which would be designed to deramp acts in the UK seems an attempt to be more flashy to differentiate the show from The Voice and American Idol. As you pointed out the VT was very positive and I think the flames were meant to invoke a fiery strong image rather than Fifth Harmony being up in flames.

  • AlisonR

    Heard a report today that the winner’s single would be a charity single, with all profits going to charity. Call me cynical, but I couldn’t help feeling that if this ends up being Chris, he would then be dropped immediately afterwards and not make anything from the experience at all (otherwise he would have got £150K+ for the winner’s single). Whereas some of the others would be more likely to kick start a career afterwards. Not that I have a problem with a charity single or anything, more that I almost hear Cowell saying “I’d rather give it to charity than him”.

  • Hi Donald. I meant James from XF in that other thread entry, not James the original ‘sit down’ artist/band. If only Youtube stats were the definitive guide to predict the outcome, then we would all be rich eh?. That said, it is still a good indication of popularity with James racing ahead at over 1.25 million views for his Motown song and Chris still ‘stuck to the ceiling’ barely moving at around 90,000. The still 1,2,3 views positions are still proportionally steady with James, UJ and Jahmene though (with UJ 211,00 and Jahmene 189,00 for Motown songs).

    Looks like XF are also jumping heavily on YT fan posts of songs this year and are having them banned for copyright infringement, thus it is making my own analysis harder. Last year I got good indication of the voting trends/intentions for hardcore Little Mix and Amelia fans from the comments underneath (combined with views). XF do not allow comments on their own channel vids.

    Teenies were indicating ‘power voting’ up to 40+ times each just for the semi and final to get them through and I am hoping that same ‘teen vote power’ will happen again this year for UJ as their fanbase snowball rapidly gathers speed and size.

    That total teenie effort last year topped out Marcus’ Liverpool vote + AOV (Adult Orientated Vote) total by around 8%. LM also had the ‘old Spice Girl fan’ girl-power nostalgia vote too from the 30+ Mums along with their daughters teenie votes (whereas UJ will lack that unless they capture the Westlife nostalgia one too here). I feel that Louis is steering them that way now for that very reason (to be more WL that 1D) for the gap they left in the market. We can’t deny that their harmonies have come on a treat. They are all ‘the loveable boy next door’ and even have a gay member too now as a roll model for other lads who are struggling with their identity. There is much positive stuff appearing on the net about that this week from those who identify with Jaymi. It certainly hasn’t done them any harm…just the opposite in fact

    At this stage, I feel that the AOV is split between Maloney and Jahmene (where if one goes now, the other becomes more powerful) and only some of both the older teen vote and ‘younger AOV’ is with the cool, modern dub-step James attraction. Do young adult cool 20-somethings bother to vote though ? Hence James seems to be floating in an unsolid ‘no man’s land’ of voting types and it wouldn’t surprise me if he (or even Jahmene) goes this week as neither have the added luxury of a huge Liverpool vote behind them as a bonus like Maloney obviously has.

    I’m still undecided about where UJ could ‘really’ be right now as more kids (sheep) latch on to them (or not) as possibly the next (fashionable) big boy band thing, as there is not much time left. But as even 1D are behind them now (from new articles I have googled), this could also influence their own floating ‘undecided’ loyal fans now that they have the ‘go ahead’ from them to vote for fellow boy band UJ.

    Hence I may now also take a forecast on UJ/Maloney too if voting trend/type imitates last years, Teen vote over AOV+Liverpool vote. Baloney is an undeserving and annoying ‘Klingon’ (and I don’t mean the Star Trek type).
    I totally rate James’ talent over everybody’s, but when it comes to betting I have put this aside to think who is voting for who (or not in James’ ‘piggy in the middle’ case and after once being in b2 with the great Ella).

  • Donald

    YT technology much better now so much easier for them to ID music etc. Surprising they not just monetising and leaving up, probably need the views themselves! There are EDM channels now with more views than XF Channel overall and they not going as long.

    Has anyone seen promoted videos from XFactor on YouTube? I haven’t but they might be doing it or someone else, those views seem very out of sync with general trend for the others. We can at least have some idea why the mobile views might be high % wise.

    Time will tell,it is only minor part of the equation but it was enough to get James into the “why” category in my books before he finished up in the bottom two couple of weeks ago so all these signs have to be considered even more closely now, we missed the punt on it last time but the indicator that we had noticed was there so maybe it there again.

  • Rave

    How often have they cut to commercial break after a VT like they did to Vino in the US version?

    It was kind of strange.

    He had a very bad diva VT edit, a sudden cut to commercial – then a poor song that he performed immediately on return.

    Is this some kind of tactic now?

    • Jake Kl

      And an early slot. Just checked ans saw that the first 3 acts who performed were the ones in bottom3.
      Whats strange is how Vino, who always came 3rd in the votings, sudddenly fell to 7th or 6th place.
      Simons groups on the other hand are always pimped massively so Id say we can expect at least one of them in the finals

  • tpfkar

    Sounds like they are accepting that Chris is out of range, and choosing not to have a damaged act in the final who was shown to be in the bottom 2 just last week. lay Chris to go this weekend?

  • I think a few people are still of the assumtion that they actually DONT want chris to the final, I am of the opposite, so want to copy and paste what I wrote in the “Clarke Went” article, before the next one was created, for anyone who hasnt red it

    I really think we need to reconsider what he producers really “want” here, majority including myself have always thought they want rid early as possible, hence the constant critism, bad press stories and awful stage productions etc.

    Before I go on, I want to point out a comment made above, this time last year sofa bet was getting less comments, suggesting this type of website highlighting producer manipulation etc wasn’t as popular? Is it now a case that the audience are a lot more aware of the manipulative side of things, with this in mind I will continue on…

    Now everyone is saying its too obvious, too obvious to the general public too. Meaning he is looking more like a victim than a villian. Is that exactly what they have wanted, I am not saying that this was the plan from te beginning but perhaps half way they decided. “How do you solve a problems me Chris” you don’t you carry on with negative tactics and let him go as far as whatever if he gets to the final, he will bring lots of press and ratings for the show, aswell as most likely be outclassed v anyone else in the final, and certainly not win more than 50% in a head to head.

    I just bring this question because I believe if they wanted to get rid they could have done this easier by giving him a song that doesn’t delight the demo.

    Without checking too much but off my head I think it all changed from the time he did “all by myself” it was like e looked totally alone like a victim and from then on its got worse. If someone can remind me of the songs he has sing since they have delighted the demo, right? If they wanted him gone they could have just gave him a song not for his audience, aswell as lukewarm comments, instead of laughter at him and critism.

    Louis the right hand man to The producers when it comes to judges comments etc, he is perhaps the most critical in a nasty way, perhaps as instructed. Also during the vt of the highlights from the night before, aired Sunday, once again it focused on Louis mocking Chris during his comments and backstage with Gary. Enticing his fans (which they know he has) to retaliate and vote for him, as they have done for the past 3 weeks, why continue with this strategy unless they are getting what they want?

    I admit I’m undecided on this, but want to bring the comments to be brought to discussion, rather than we assume the producers are failing.

    (Only thing I think they failed on was Rylan being safe last week, when it was meant to be Ella v rylan not James, saved by unscripted banter that was unexpected from rylan, cleverly avoided this week by not allowing dermot to interview rylan after his second performance)

 Leave a reply...