X Factor Week 6 Post Mortem: End of the line for District 3

We have an admission to make at Sofabet. We sometimes (though by no means always) write a draft for this Sunday night article before the result is announced. That’s because we sometimes feel like we have a good idea who will be involved.

Given the open nature of this week’s bottom two possibilities, we didn’t write any draft. With only seven contestants left that’s quite something. It’s in stark contrast to this stage in 2011, when Kitty Brucknell rode off into the twilight the day after performing a chariot-themed rendition of ‘Don’t Stop Me Now’ in the death slot.

And for the first time I can remember, we had to wait till after the final commercial break too, as they left Chris to shake and the boybands to quake. Ultimately we did indeed have a battle of the boybands, as quite a few of our commenters had speculated would be the case.

This was another singoff no-brainer for me, and I built up five-figure liabilities betting that Union J were indeed the alpha boyband and would be saved. Odds hovered at around 1.1 – 1.15. Louis declined to choose between his two acts, but once Gary had damned District 3’s singoff performance, there wasn’t much doubt. How did you get on this week? Let us know and your reaction to the boyband bottom two below.

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59 comments to X Factor Week 6 Post Mortem: End of the line for District 3

  • Curtis

    The sing-off was a forgone conclusion, I actually think the more interesting point of discussion is Skakey Maloney. Is he winning the vote? I still am sceptical, but as each week goes by where Chris isn’t in the bottom two it does give some amount of credibility to the Star’s reports, particularly as they said this was happening week ago. I think a Sofabet article on this topic is necessary!

    • Daniel

      Hi Curtis, due to popular demand we plan to have such an article written and posted some time tomorrow.

      • Curtis

        Great stuff, I look forward to it!

        I do quite like the idea of Chris topping the votes against the producer’s greater wishes, being as Chris wouldn’t even be in the competition if they didn’t put in their pointless twist. I just don’t really believe that that’s what’s really going on.

  • jake Kl

    Whats more UnionJ were the favoured group. Judges couldnt have sent it to deadlock, knowing UnionJ would go home, giving a majority verdict for the 2nd time this season

  • PG

    The 2/1 on Rylan to be next eliminated looks big , coming down from a bounce and Union J due one, and with no sign of Shaky hitting the bottom Two yet that looks a big price to me.

  • Delicatessen

    Taxi for PigSick3 – about time, too.

    The Rylan thing though, still continues to astound me.

  • eurovicious

    Overall profit €7! BACK OF THE NET

  • annie

    Rylan will have to leave next week. Otherwise Nicole will have more acts left than the other judges together. And that would be just wrong. Although the prospect of Shaky being top5 is a bit sad too.Usually by top 5 they clean up the lot and are in the ‘credible competition’ phase.

  • eurovicious

    Actually I won on the elimination, the combo, and Union J top group. Once I’d laid off my bets from Friday and Saturday (UJ not to be B2, Maloney to go etc), I backed D3 to go at 8pm then stuck another €500 on them during the singoff. I partly regret backing out of my large lay of Rylan B2, as it’d have netted me a couple hundred, but I thought Union J would poll higher. Their voting number was even trending at one point before the show. Lesson of the evening: trending is overrated.

    The problem with betting during one-sided singoffs like this is it’s barely worthwhile if you’re a small fish not a shark. I much prefer the Rylan vs. X style singoff where the market genuinely swings both ways.

  • Moving quickly onto next weeks elimination lets look at the contenders.

    James/Jahmene/Ella – these are the credible artists and each have been given pushes throughout the competition (although at different stages) and the ones that are most likely to be successful after the show, tere is very little reason to think the shock of either goin is needed or wanted. I’m classing these as safe.

    Union J – they have just found themselves in the bottom two after a bounce, they now should easily take all the extra votes that kept D3 safe for so long. That as well as a bounce, should see then safe from the bottom two. However if they were to land in bottom two, it would be a big negative to leave Louis with no acts without any real need to do that.

    Chris – it’s the same for Chris leaving Gary with no acts at this stage isn’t necessary.

    Rylan – he now comes to the week off the back of a bounce. There is now no need to keep him in the competition, Nicole needs to lose an act also. He also loses all sing offs, perhaps most suiting would be v Chris, if only for the storyline of Gary saying “justice, about time” etc

    Anything over 6-4 is a great bet for rylan to go, i have took some of the 7-4 and 2-1. But I expected around evens, 5-4 to be general price.

    Honestly this is probably the bet of series.

    • Curtis

      I don’t think leaving any of the judges with no acts at this stage of the competition is a concern at all, and frankly these days it’s more of a surprise when Louis does have an act going to the final stages of the competition than when he doesn’t.

      Union J however are going to receive a bounce – admittedly a weaker second one – but also surely some of the District 3 demographics are going to move over to them. So I think we’re going to see Rylan in a bottom 2 with someone else. Who that someone is really does depend on how well Chris is polling. If that someone is Chris, I genuinely wouldn’t put it past them to save Rylan over Chris still, if only because frankly Rylan is the more credible of the two from where I’m sitting!

    • Adam

      “loses all sing-offs”

      Surely Rylan can beat Chris in a sing-off?

      • I don’t think so, although nobody knows for sure, but lets not forget Louis voted Rylan out v kye claiming he was “doing the right thing” if it goes to deadlock I think Chris takes it easy. Rumours he is higher in votes than betting would suggest and Rylan been in the bottom two twice, one of which when the regional vote was used hard but didn’t work for him.

        Plus I think it’s fitting to the end of “story” of Gary v rylan.

        • Sarah

          If Chris ends up in the bottom two, he is a gonner no matter who he is up against. Do you really think the producers would risk saving him, allowing him to certainly bounce into the final (and possible win the show)?

          • The same could be said for rylan bouncing to the semis and the finals.

            I don’t read too much into Chris polling as high as producers are making out, but I do Think early on he was high, hence the week after week of deramping.

        • Adam

          But Tulisa and Louis (in particular) have been scathing of Chris since the beginning.

          Rylan can go anytime they want, Couldn’t see them passing up a chance to boot Chris

          • Jack

            I agree. Chris being saved in the B2 risks the chance of him bouncing into the semi or even to the final. If Chris falls into B2, they will get rid of him in my opinion.

    • Gajy

      Scouse I think you are dead right. All the stars have aligned here for rylan to go. The fact that his own fortune teller predicted week 7 would be his final week just gives them a further excuse/mandate to get rid. Yes, he would win a sing off v maloney, but in case people have not been paying attention MALONEY IS TOPPING THE VOTE EVERY WEEK! Rylan will be 2/1on by next Sunday morn IMO

  • Boki

    To put it shortly: nice. I’m also glad my feeling towards Rylan lay payed off (I mean feeling that his performance was good enough for escape, although it might be lucky one).
    Next week should be lock for Rylan bot2 but curious to see who will be the second. If DS is right (always the same if) it’s not going to be Chris. If UJ bounces (they can do it only with D3 votes imo) than someone from big 3 has to fall.

    • eurovicious

      I should have stuck to my guns more with Rylan.

      Can’t believe we’re up to week 7 already now. This series has been balls so far. When I think about how much enjoyed last year’s acts, this year doesn’t even begin to compare. It’s mirthless, and while I do like Chris on his own terms, the fact he’s winning speaks volumes. He wouldn’t have lasted 5 minutes last year. It’s a borezone. I don’t even have a favourite, I’m that disinterested. I’ve no idea how D3 even lasted as long as they did, they were shite, they shouldn’t have even been put through.

      Anyway… disappointing but perhaps unsurprising that the odds on Rylan are so short already. I’ll take them anyway. Bearing in mind UJ have been B2 twice now, I’m guessing the show will help them a lot next week in an effort to get them top 4. And without a split vote they’re likely to do much better. With Lucy gone, the top 4 I’m sure they’d like is Ella, Jahmene, James and UJ, but Chris is throwing a spanner in the works (to my vague glee) and getting UJ above Chris, or even getting Chris into the B2, is going to prove difficult. He’s the living, copper-coloured embodiment of the disconnect between what the public like and what the show thinks it should like. The constant drubbing has only helped him and reinforced his “people’s champion” status – people don’t like being told that they shouldn’t like something that they like, and they don’t like seeing a sympathetic figure being repeatedly got at. I hope he wins the show and teach them a lesson in the process, then releases a novelty dubstep album.

      I think the point I was originally coming to was that with UJ on a bounce and Maloney unshakeable, one of The Holy Trinity (for it is they) looks likely to be B2, as pointed out by Boki above. It’s not going to be Jahmene. It’s unlikely to be Ella, and they’ll make every effort to ensure it’s not. James is the most in danger, but still popular. They’ll go all-out on Chris, but it may not be enough. Depends on the veracity of the leaks. I’m looking at the Wikipedia article for the 2010 series and it’s worth noting that (as most people here will already know) although Wagner was never B2 until the week he departed, his vote was low throughout and he basically just bobbed along above the bottom. There’s a chance that Maloney is doing the same and the “leaks” are bobbins. So then, in the event of a Rylan/Chris B2, who’d go – Chris, surely? With him being so difficult to dislodge, I doubt they’d want to pass up the long-awaited and hard-earned opportunity to get him off (especially if the Cowell thing is true), even if it means Rylan ends up 5th or, if he bounces again, even 4th.

      Thoughts?

      • Jack

        Wagner leaks were never in the Star iirc. The Star is the newspaper with credible voting leaks. Considering Chris has been predicted as B2 almost every week since his re-introduction and he has been safe every week, I find the leaks credible.

      • Bexley

        Eurovicious yourl ast section on Chris seems contradictive to me.
        If the leaks are bobbins and he’s consistently been just above the bottom why then would he be so difficult to dislodge?
        The enigma that is Chris is only neccessary to remove if he is a real challenger to the shows golden trinity and that would only be the case if his vote is as high as the leak. Catch 22??

        • eurovicious

          Hi Bexley – I only said “there’s a chance” that the leaks are untrue. Speculation. At present over the course of the series, he has proved hard to dislodge. Agree with your second paragraph.

  • Queen Bea

    Wouldn’t be surprised to see Maloney safe again next week- and possibly Ella bottom 2, she does the same thing every week. Union J should get a bounce and possibly get some D3 votes. Rylan clairvoyant will probably be proved right.

    Incidentally did anyone see Ella practically out Jaymi on Xtra factor?

  • Kevin O Reilly

    Odds on Rylan have dropped quickly, well done to anyone who grabbed 7/4 or 2/1.

  • stoney

    invested the majority of my union j top group winnings on rylan to go next week, unfortunately missed out on 7/4 but 5/4 is decent enough for me, pretty much a stone wall id say

  • Queen Bea

    They asked her what she missed about having other girls in the competition, and she replied that she missed having girly talks and get togethers, but said that at least she still had Rylan and Jaymi.

  • Highlighted

    It’s likely Rylan could come up against James/Ella/UJ and he is toast. If Shaky still stays top 3 next week at least, but think they will aim for filling week an exit for him.

  • rad

    I’m going for Ella/Rylan bottom two next week with Rylan going. Even thogh the favoured three all just have one trick, it seems it’s been picked up on by audience and judges alike more than the other two. Union J/Christopher week after, Christopher goes. Maybe. UJ will not reach top 3 though.

  • rad

    I mean Ella’s one trick has been spotted more than James/Jahmene’s. Too early to be typing!

  • I would lov eto see Maloney win it. Don’t think he will, but I would happily forego my bet on Ella to see it happen.

    Will he get to the final, though? It’s starting to look possible.

    • Boki

      I also don’t think he will but look at the Voice this year. I backed him @40 and again @20 just to have the same split between Ella/Jahmene/Chris win, it’s a cheap back anyway.

      What happened to your 4 figure Ella bet, letting it ride or trying to get out while still can?

  • Boki

    Well, Chris survived another week and again making DS leak credible so he might end up in top3 easily. I wonder would they introduce a sing-off in week 9 with 4 acts left just to get rid of him? That sounds the most plausible to me because only in that case he would go against a ‘credible artist’. Union J were twice in bottom 2 and they simple can’t produce a wow moment with a faster song (while D3 were capable of that in wk3 when given a chance) so I have no high hope for them (unless they gather every single D3 multiple vote).
    Although constantly deramped and this week stiched with distracting dancers, Chris was never really stiched with a song choice and that might be a sign they still want him to float around until Rylans and boybands are out. Chris is still standing – we can call it boring karaoke etc. but it was a great hit long ago perfectly targeted for his audience and even with a great message. So, they certainly don’t want him to win but going against Rylan seems something they cleverly want to avoid since it might further damage the ratings.

  • I’ll let it ride, and come back fighting hard again next year. Assuming we get one…

    But your point, below, is an interesting one. If they really want him (Maloney) out, the way to do it would be to give him the Rylan treatment: i.e, the biggest production, dancers, effects, etc. Take him out of his element and turn him into the joke act. He looked very uncomfortable on Saturday, and I’m surprised he avoided the drop.

  • tpfkar

    I posted yesterday that in an open market, laying the favorite was a good choice. I was talking my book; I had a significant lay on Rylan going so was pleased he bounced after all – but it was a risky bet and I was worried it wouldn’t come off.

    What were they thinking announcing Chris as last safe the way they did? Surely that will make it look like he was almost in the bottom 2, motivating his supporters to vote? Why didn’t they do that with Ella instead? Not sure I can see what they were trying to do here.

    Union J survive but are badly damaged stock. 2 sing-offs, having to be saved by judges both times, and they looked anything but superstars in the results show. Where is the wow? I’ve been saying all along that there is no product to match the hype with them, and so much for the military vote. In deciding the battle of the boybands, they may have scuppered both.

    Is it too obvious to say Rylan gone next week, followed by Union J? If not, it’s the semi where our core assumptions will be tested. Looking forward to the article on Chris’s chances – he is the key to the final weeks.

  • Shade

    Off-topic perhaps, but how will this series be remembered I wonder? Whatever way they play it theyre definitely lumbered with either Maloney (the wildcard top over, thats unwieldy enough) or Rylan (joke act, party boy, clearly doesnt have much of ANY factor let alone X Factor) for top 5

    Agree with eurovicious as well, this series has been utterly BORING. I don’t really care about ANY of the contestants and for various reasons I don’t want any of them to win…the show is so bad this year its almost like its deliberate

    I don’t even watch it anymore except sometimes the repeat on Sunday mornings, literally only following along with Sofabet for the amusement factor 😛

    Producers are caught between a rock and a hard place with this, do they want to stay CREDIBLE as intended (we thought) with this series’ inclusion of James, Ella and Lucy and thus get rid of Rylan in a B2, leaving Maloney as a threat or…

    Do they nobble Maloney against Rylan?

    I think they’ll be pushing Rylan next week in a Same Difference-like manner (expect a choir of children and stagewire flying elements) in order to engineer Maloney B2 with one of the CREDIBLE artists. If they can just push Rylan slightly out of the danger zone theyre free to nobble Maloney.

    Who do we think will win now? I’m going to go out there and think they might de-ramp either Jahmene or Union J…that Ella out-ing might come in handy if one of the last remaining boyband has a ‘gay’ storyline VT in a..not negative, but not positive light.

    This year theyre all varying degrees of average though and I STILL havent had my ‘Misha B moment’

  • Caro

    Just heard its ‘guilty pleasures’ next week – which would seem to be excellent for Christopher and Rylan, and not such good news for Union J.
    Also, I’m not convinced that most District 3 fans will transfer to Union J. D3 are on the tour and planning their future career and will want to keep their fan base. Therefore I expect them to keep a strong Twitter and Facebook campaign going and this could mean that a lot of their fans will stick with them and not vote now at all.

  • jake Kl

    Great comments guys. I agree, having my favourites in the early weeks (Jade in particular), i’ve just realised how dull the whole thing is and i dont care anymore who wins it, maybe Chris just to annoy the producers.
    On this happy note, these are my thoughts: Last night, producers must have realised saving D3 would bounce them to the finals, something they’d rather not have.
    Its safe to say D3 have had a better following than UnionJ, at least in the last weeks. UnionJ may have had the upper hand in the first 2 weeks but after the biggest wow moment of the series, D3’s performance in wk3 and other minor details (Jaymi’s sexuality, George’s romance with Ella, JJ wanting to be a jockey) might have put some fangirls off. Therefore putting it to deadlock would have sent home their favourite group hence they sent it to majority.
    Next week, 2 things im expecting: UnionJ bouncing massively a la Rachel Adedeji after HER 2nd singoff, thanx to being the only group left, getting D3’s votes, sympathy, Jaymis finally recognised as main man etc.
    Im also expecting Rylan to fall in the bottom2. He barely escaped this week but with fewer acts wont have the same luck. Like some1 mentioned, that was the position another male joke act left, Wagner. Add to that His psychic’s predictions and Gary finally warming up to him (guilty pleasure for Rylan= could it be magic by TT?) we can finally say goodbye to the extravaganza.
    As I cant see Chris or Jahmene in a singoff yet and James might be pimped again, A shock singoff with Ella looks likely, like JLS, and her bounce after that would surely make her fans send her to the finals. Im not sure that we’ll have a singoff in 2 weeks.

    • jake Kl

      The producers would rather have a singoff in 2 weeks. If they’ve deramped Chris enough to put him in bottom2, He’ll be up against James or UnionJ and any excuse will do to have a majority vote to get Chris out. Then we have UnionJ leave in semifinal with no singoffs and there we have our final 3.

    • eurovicious

      Jade became my favourite after her week 2/3 performances, which itself says something about the quality of this year’s lot.

      Could the “main man” thing not be dangerous for cohesion? Plus I think they’ll want to avoid Ella B2 at all costs. As Chris and Charmin are polling strongly, I think they’re more likely to try to depress James’s vote and get him into the B2 with Rylan. Then he’ll bounce to the semi. As a typical rough-edged 4th-placed act, it shouldn’t harm him, whereas it would harm Ella.

      • jake Kl

        Good point. Also the idea of the only girl falling in the bottom2, 3 weeks b4 the finals looks bad.
        Are we to expect massive pimping for Ella next week? Guilty pleasures doesnt sound good news to her. Then again past contestants left on their most suited week, proving my point even more with Rylan next week.
        Still, I really cant see Chris going to the finals and producers being ok with it

  • EM

    Enought with the Twitter talk! Vote for Union J seemed to be trending all day yesterday on Twitter.

    As with nearly every other trend I’ve seen or heard of it didn’t do any good.

  • tpfar

    But that’s why you should ignore the numbers and look at the swings. The 2 boybands have had substantially the highest number of followers and action on twitter, but Union J’s first appearance in the bottom 2 was matched with a proportional decrease in activity so you can make conclusions if you look at the data properly. Haven’t seen anything for a couple of weeks so can’t comment on this / last time, but the data does tell you something as long as you don’t take it at face value.

  • eurovicious

    Absolutely. Couldn’t agree on this more. Trending is overrated, something that last night really proved.

    • Henry VIII

      I like that Little Mix photo. I remember Tulisa saying that they had to remain fresh and innocent, never tarted up, never the type of girlband who would steal another girl’s boyfriend.

      Oh hang on…

      • eurovicious

        Exactly. Thought their performance on Sunday was off. The whole point of LM is that they’re the girls next door, not stony-faced sex robots. And I was totally like “Why are they singing the song off the TalkTalk advert?”

  • Kevin O Reilly

    I suspect there may be value in the B2 odds when they appear. Perhaps Ella? I know she will be pimped but if anything the producers efforts are having the opposite affect so pimping her may damage her vote as oppose to boosting it. It’s more of the same negativity with Chris but so far it has not worked. I suspect the voting numbers will increase in a couple of weeks but his core vote will probably keep him safe again from B2 at current levels.

  • Alen

    I don’t think Chris is topping the vote cause if he was, woulnd’t they move hell to get rid off him NOW? It’s clearly getting harder now. He is probably doing great though.

    Is there ANY way they could get rid off him in a week or two à la Cocozza? I mean disqualifying him somehow? Reading the fourth warning over latenss-articel for example, they could just say his heart wasn’t in it and he left to care bout his ill nan? Obviously this would only be needed if they can’t get rid off him at all.

    Jahmene is probably the safest as of now. Rylan will probably be in bottom two next week with a final Gary “you did actually really good mate”-comment and end of his journey.

    Question is who will stand beside him? Union J should be safe with the bounce and taking some/lots/most of D3 votes.

    Leaves Ella and James. I fear Ella really isn’t doing that great in votings so I think she could be this weeks shock-bottom 2, that should give her enough bounce for the final.

  • Kevin O Reilly

    I think this year the complication has been the producers missing targets. With the reduction in the field will they have more control I wonder. Conceivably the votes per candidate will be increasing and will many who have lost favourites jump on board with Chris? It does not seem likely. It is tempting to think he might drop to B2 but I cannot decide. Perhaps a saver on him getting eliminated might be wise if betting big this week. re: the above with Cocozza they can’t go that far surely. But what would prevent them “organising” votes for a near rival if they are that desperate. The way they accused Chris of ringing for himself perhaps it is an option they might avail of if he is danger of B2?

  • Henry VIII

    Rylan’s toast whoever he’s up against. I missed any ante-post odds-against – because Sunday’s a busy day gambling I’m normally recovering on Monday and can’t concentrate on the week ahead. Always safer to wait for the show anyway (I always tell myself).

    I think they like Chris. He gives them publicity and he’s popular. “He gives them publicity” = the XF press office can write silly stories about him to feed the press with. He brings in phone votes. He’s also their anti-themachine contestant. They could teach the CIA a thing or two about creating a false “enemy” that can be controlled (to attract and corral dissenters).

  • Mick

    This weeks result is what I predicted for next week so I lost out. In fact many of us foresaw a D3 v UJ b2 and as soon as Rylan was declared safe quite early, there was only one other outcome.

    But why the ad break with 3 left? Was it to pre-empt the judges off camera?

    To recoup some lost money I’ll go with Rylan again down to 5/6 and just hope he is not joined by Chris.

    But if its not Chris and presuming UJ will bounce along with D3 votes is there a shock b2 entrance?

  • Henry VIII

    Anybody who thinks they would ditch Chris over Rylan doesn’t have a clue. Sorry to be blunt. Rylan has played his part in the soap. Chris is just beginning.

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