X Factor 2012 Week 5 Post Mortem: Bye Kye

The return of the incompetent assassins. Having hit their target in Jade last week, we wondered if we could start to trust again in producers’ aim. Nope. As tpfkar predicted with tongue in cheek, “Looks like they are gunning for D3… Given their hit rate so far, D3 should be safe as houses.”

It’s hard to escape the conclusion that they overdid it with the boyband. As Kevin O Reilly put it last night in the comments, “I began to fear for my bet as the judges went too far with their comments. It came across as an organised hit as opposed to individual opinion. I hope this has not sparked people into defence mode.”

“I thought the judges’ comments went too far which has proven in the past to rally an act’s fans”, agreed lolhart, going on to call: “I’m edging towards a Kye v Rylan bottom 2. I’m pretty confident that Rylan has been near the bottom 2 every week and I think the producers are running out of tricks with him.”

Lolhart reckoned “Kye will go because I doubt there’s little concern about Gary only having one act left”. There was disagreement in the comments about this scenario, however, with Kevin reckoning Rylan would go, and JScouser, Eurovicious and Stephen reckoning it a tough one to call. I was always firmly in the lolhart camp.

I lumped on Kye to go when the bottom two were announced, at odds down from 2.35 to 1.7 on Betfair. When Louis “did the right thing” – a clever touch after the week 1 criticism when it was Louis who took it to deadlock, allowing Carolynne to be sent home – Kye’s odds crept back out to 2.2.

Although I’d been burned in week 2 in this situation, I doubled down on Kye to go, expecting Tulisa to deadlock it and the vote to reveal what I believed the show would want in the interests of continued entertainment. I breathed a sigh of relief when Dermot announced the result – it more than recouped my week 2 losses.

Farewell, then, Kye – and farewell to Gary’s attempts to restore credibility to the overs category. Three serious overs, all in the bottom two in the first three weeks and all gone by week 5. And who is Gary’s last remaining representative? Cruiseship Maloney! I’m looking forward to the mentor duet in the final already.

What did you make of it, and how are you reading next week? As ever, do let us know below.

 

46 comments to X Factor 2012 Week 5 Post Mortem: Bye Kye

  • As soon as I saw the VT of Kye and his brother, and everyone else nearby not taking any notice of them, Sophie Habibis style, I knew he was in trouble. Though I actually expected him to survive the singoff. The show just has no credibility anymore, at least in the UK. Tulisa actually saved Carolynne on week 1 and now she sends Rylan home.

  • KERCHING again guys, and it does seem that the show is back on track after those horrible first couple of weeks.

  • Curtis

    I felt quite strongly initially that Kye would go, that was my instinct. However, as the sing-off continued and the judges voted, I started to wonder whether Rylan’s last performance, which was good, would be a fitting end for him in the producer’s eyes. Perhaps Rylan had served his purpose in this competition, and he would now be eliminated to give the show some ‘perceived credibility’.

    I attempted to hedge my bets as I now had Rylan to go at odds against sitting in front of me. Thankfully, by the time I submitted this bed, the odds against were no longer on the table, and the chance to hedge my bets was no longer there, so I was committed to Kye going. He did, and I was happy.

    Good ol’ X Factor, we missed you.

  • With the Alpha 3 guaranteed not to hit the Bottom 2 anytime soon, Union J coming out on top yet again as alpha boyband and Maloney swiftly escaping it ever so often I think it’s fair to say Rylan and D3 will be the least voted acts. Will Tulisa save Rylan again?

    Then again, will Rylan bounce back? And if so, will it be a stronger vote percentage than Christopher’s octagenary fanclub?

    All I’m sure is that D3 will be there singing for their lives.

  • stoney

    im getting very good at this predicting lark 🙂

    the bank balance is getting healthier week by week

  • Made a profit tonight with most of my bets on Kye for the B2 at 11/10.

    One thing I’ve noticed – The official X Factor twitter account only retweets one act on basically a daily basis… District 3. I’m not sure who’s manning the account – maybe it’s a marketing company or maybe it’s a show producer but has me thinking about the knock on affect to voting.

    Anyone checked the X Factor app? Do the click to clap stats teach us anything?

  • eurovicious

    The order thing still isn’t back to normal though, and I don’t think we can expect it too. The first act to perform in the singoff has now stayed 4 weeks out of 5.

    I miss Eurovision…

  • Boki

    Finally a great week both for pre and live results bets. I had Rylan in bot2 and also layed D3 bot2 (following my initial thoughts noted here http://sofabet.com/2012/11/03/x-factor-2012-week-5-dissedrict-3/comment-page-1/#comment-25315). Also expected the deadlock when Louis sent Rylan and after few long minutes kerching (but wk2 still hurts).

    The only loss tonight was that 1st safe act, UJ 1st again – please ignore all of my posts on that subject and I’ll pretend it never happened. Wait, I know – they read my post on here and did a last minute change of announcing them before Jahmene, bastards 🙂

  • AnnaC

    So I was right about D3 (safe) and Kye (B2). Wrong about Rylan (thought he was safe) and about James who I thought was heading towards B2 through lack of nan-appeal. Still expect to see Christopher in the bottom two next week although the only way I can see to get him there is with a modern song.

  • After just copping a nice 7/1 win on ‘first announced safe’ it is confirming my suspicions (and last years Little Mix pattern) that the producers are going to step things up with Union J. Next week Little Mix are guesting and will no doubt be calling for their fan base to vote for them (as did JLS and 1D last year with them) in the run up to the finals. For the same reason, it will also be the week that D3 go if producers give the dagger a final twist.

    Last year saw LM come right from the back of the field at big prices to break the winning line tape, so whilst UJ are still at 20/1, it may be worth a bet (or even an e/way punt). I only had a fiver on the bet tonight promised myself to lump all the £40 returns onto UJ immediately if it came up, so if they lose, I have only lost £5 (but I will have good month of excitement in watching them, which beats buying a scratch-card for a few minutes of expectation). I never bet more than I can afford to lose and will put more on this week if I have a good week with work.

    • eurovicious

      Each way would perhaps be better. No act that’s been B2 has ever won, and Union J don’t have an overweight crying one innit. Also, their friendship hasn’t been trumpeted as much in the case of LM. Despite being named on Saturday, they still feel slightly anonymous, and something I’ve just realised is that it really doesn’t help that they all look very similar and all have similar names. This is perhaps one area where D3 has an advantage over them (plus the fun factor) – there’s fewer of them to remember, they look different from each other and have clearly distinct names. Same applies to Cement Mix last year and One Direction the year before. By comparison, George, JJ, Jaymi and Josh could be clones. They’re interchangeable. One of them better dredge up a dead relative/parakeet or develop some insecurities to bawl about, pronto.

    • Rave

      Little Mix actually already asked their fans to vote Union J last night on their official Twitters – so you were right!

    • stoney

      i got 9/2 on union j for the top 3 at the start of the lives, ill just be happy for them to be the last remaining group, anything else is a bonus

  • lolhart

    I’m glad that I went with my instincts on the bottom 2, as I managed to recoup some of my previous losses. I didn’t have any doubts that Rylan would be saved after the efforts that were made to pimp him this week. TPTB must be quite disappointed that the TOWIE VT and Two Shoes endorsement weren’t as effective as I’m sure they hoped. I’m actually intrigued to see what they’ll pull next week.

    It was indeed a clever touch going to Tulisa to give the death blow to Kye. It’s a pity she’s a terrible actress and had her usual bored/surly look when saying she looks forward to seeing Rylan next week. Shame we didn’t get a Barlow hissy fit this time.

  • Kevin O Reilly

    Well done to those who made a nice profit, I had Kye covered so endured a manageable loss. Will be interesting to see how close D3 were to bottom 2 when results come out. The results will be very interesting this year. It is pleasing to see Gary left with his one of his original rejects, he cannot be enjoying it I think. I am surprised they let it happen this way but maybe he has no clout behind the scenes. Nicole now has 3 of 7 acts remaining and that is quite imbalanced. I thought they would avoid that but keeping the dreadful Kye was a price they were unwilling to bear. Sadly for my balance ala Scooby Doo them pesky kids in District 3 just keep ruining things!!!

  • Chatterbox5200

    Like most on here, I backed Kye to be bottom two and to go, which was topped up once he was in the sing off with Rylan, as I was sure they wanted to keep Rylan for one more week at least.

    I can’t help thinking that the scheduling of two former X Factor Groups to appear next week, could impact the progress of District 3 and Union J (especially if they fall into the bottom 2), by showing that the show has already produced successful groups and possibly show a gulf in ability between those that have made it and the pretenders. With this in mind, could the booking of Ed Sheeran on the same show help or hinder James Arthur?

    I couldn’t help notice the sway of “Guests”, both performing on the main show and appearing on Xtra Factor, that are backing James Arthur. I don’t have the evidence at hand to back up my statement, but I definitely remember One Direction, JLS and Labrinth pledging their support for him. Does he need a helping hand to get to the final or is this an attempt to try and make the finalists more credible?

    • Donald

      Next week Elton John week seemingly so that would be reason Ed Sheeran got on probably. James Arthur more Plan B to Ed Sheeran so far.

    • Kevin O Reilly

      Perhaps the producers powers do not extend to telling the guests (or at least all the guests) what answers to give to questions? It seems plausible that James would appeal to more serious musicians who maybe appreciate his edginess and individuality more than your typical X Factor voter. I think he is genuinely more credible music wise than possibly any previous contestant. Will not mean he wins of course as credibility and votes do not go hand in hand.

  • eurovicious

    OK. So we now have 4 vocally driven acts that have never been in the bottom 2, two boybands that have both been in it once, and a presumably bouncy Rylan. Assuming Rylan bounces (he was really good this week, both in his main show performance and especially in the singoff), and assuming the boybands have marshalled a strong enough fanbase to keep at least one of them out of the bottom 2 next week (I can’t genuinely foresee both of them in the B2 as early as next Sunday), we’re looking at a new face in the singoff on Sunday. Out of Ella, Jahmene, James and Chris, who’s it most likely to be?

    – There’s a case that Ella is a lot of people’s favourite and is very teatimey, mainstream-friendly and safe (like many winners and runners-up before her). She’s also the show’s Plan A.
    – However, there’s also a case that she isn’t polling as well as the show would like, is boring, lacks versatility and is losing momentum compared to, well, Jahmene for one. In terms of an emotional connection with the viewer, arguably her personality and emotions come through less than in the case of Jahmene, Chris and even James. She’s had little in the way of sob stories or emotional VTs in the live shows; she basically just sings. And the voting leak doesn’t show her winning the first 2 live shows. There’s a strong possibility that the more they pimp her, the more people think she’s a shoe-in and aren’t motivated to vote, which is possibly why they’ve dialled down the worship in recent weeks.

    – It could be argued Jahmene has shone the most this series out of anyone (and as Louis said, improved the most); assuming the Daily Star leak is correct, we also know he’s popular. I think we can assume the public has a strong emotional connection with him due to his shy, humble, likeable nature, vulnerability, authentic sob story and occasional tears.
    – However, his very strong run so far and the use of his child abuse story in week 3 could be taken as evidence he’s not doing as well in the voting as the show feels he should be. His singing style is less universal in appeal than the straightforward balladeering of Ella and Chris, both of whom I strongly suspect Dug’s “typical ITV viewer” prefers over Jahmene.

    – There’s a strong case that James stands out as the most authentic and indie act – all the more so in Lucy’s absence. He also has the northeast vote.
    – However, it can also be argued that a mainstream audience may not be voting for him as heavily as the show would want. There’s an ever-so-slight element of the MK1 question: do the people who like his sort of music vote in the X Factor? Obviously they have been doing until now, pretty significantly. But how long will this sustain him? (Is he the act that dads like and that it’s OK for dads to like?)

    – Chris: assuming the voting leak was correct, and his run so far combined with various comments on the show and on Xtra Factor suggest it was, he’s the public’s favourite, or at least he was in the first 2 weeks and he continues to do well. With his strongly performed and very well-known power ballad, tears, and tackling the press attacks head-on, what could have been a Melanie-style drop slot yesterday was instead a resounding pimp slot. He also has the northwest vote, plus the older vote. This is at the expense of the other three Over 28s, who all tried to be too clever with their music. After coming home at the end a long day on t’ checkout, Maureen in Farnsworth doesn’t want reinterpretations of Nicki Minaj (“who?”), INXS (“Isn’t that a deodorant?”) or Swedish House Mafia (“Swedish what? Foreign muck!”) She wants a camp Scouse Belisha beacon in an M&S trenchcoat bellowing 80s power ballads (“Ooh I like this one!”) through an inch of foundation and fake tan. This being the case, he probably splits/shares the mum vote with Ella and to a certain extent Jahmene. The fact the jury is against him, apart from Gary who has wisely steered him this far by keeping a straight course, only serves to encourage people to vote for him in support. And his reliability and predictability are the whole point. You know what you’re going to get every week. He has the Leanne Mitchell and the underdog factor. In a series that’s made authenticy its benchmark, to its own detriment (and loss in viewing figures), he most closely reflects what viewers actually want.
    – However, it’s doubtful any younger viewers are voting for him. Or any dads, unless they’re closet satsumosexuals. He occupies a similar niche to Ella. Gary won’t want to give Chris anything modern, so one way to depress his vote might be to give Ella an older and very well-known song, thereby allowing her to usurp his niche .

    Final thought for t’ night: with their youth, mental performances and constant leaping around, is it possible District 3 are fulfilling a Jedward role? They’ve have 3 weeks of upbeat songs (in a sea of earnest balladry) and been safe every time. It’s working in their favour. That and kids with too much phone credit.

  • Donald

    Should have stuck to my original Gary panto prediction, still a profit and Kye going got back my D3 stake back. First act well done Maccafan hard luck Boki so close the first two called out picked on Sofabet.

    If Rylan bounces and top 3 safe we only left with Chris Maloney and two boybands for elimination next week. Two boybands a starting point then. Ooh producers must be under pressure.. I wonder how well Chris Maloney is polling, Ella soething not going right at the minute is my hunch but she stood out tonight on the group song speaking of which Jahmene certainly got wrong.

    Strange VT of Ella tonight on Xtra Factor, (West End Theatre)and no mention from judges during questions on main show. Strange indeed.

    Do you see a Rylan “Wagner” week on the horizon Daniel?

    Good week on Sofabet great to be back in the groove and see most back in front, serious crowd on here in fairness.

  • Question…..Unless I have missed something with being busy with work this week…..With Lucy now suddenly retired from the comp there is now a hole, so are XF planning another Amelia type plant to replace her and to upset the apple-cart again (as is their usual want for publicity and controversy) ? Or is there going to be a week with no elimination ?

  • Steven. That would still leave the whole show a week short on the original planned scheduling, surely ? The final venue especially will have been booked a good year in advance as well as tv slots for such a big show.

    • Steven

      I don’t see how … the final dates were confirmed at the 8th and 9th months ago as far as I can tell from new articles. So in the 5 weeks that I laid out before:

      Week 6: Nov 10/11
      Week 7: Nov 17/18
      Week 8: Nov 24/25
      Week 9: Dec 1/2
      Week 10: Dec 8/9

      What the Lucy exit did was take away the option of a double elimination. Contrast to last year, which also had 12 acts standing at the start of Week 2, but had a double elimination in Week 5 and AFTER THAT WEEK Frankie was ejected. So they had to make up a spot. But there’s been no double elimination yet this year.

      I could be missing something here but after poring over it I’m unable to find it myself.

  • Alen

    I think this week we will see the climax of the battle of the boybands. Louis hyped up again last weekend and with One Direction and Little Mix performing this week we will see two already existing super bands.

    Seeing how they treated Union J they def prefer them. I wouldn’t put it behind the X Factor team to try to sabotage both boybands in the sing-off to have the ultimate battle. How they should achieve though I don’t know.

    Plus I know this is stupid, but Kity who is a big Gaga fan (and wanted to sing born this way) left on the week that Gaga performed.

    Kye left now in the week Rita Ora performed (he sang RIP in his audition).

    With having One Direction / Little Mix this weekend a group should leave. Just a fun thought 😉

  • Highlighted

    I see Chris as B2 material for first time next week with a possible Rylan bounce moving him ahead of D3 and Chris. I think Chris was top in the first 2 weeks, but I doubt it anymore. I think done of his votes will be going elsewhere and his percentage slowly but surely falling. This week he is a contender for B2. The execution of getting Chris out is similar to Janet, but maybe less barbaric as in the end Janet had a stubborn and large fan base who XF were probably worried of up to week 5. Doubt after week 5 Chris is still topping the vote.

    That leads me on to Ella, if she wasn’t top in week 2 I think it’s unlikely she is top now. Jahmene and James at some points are likely to be above her in the vote until now and her routine is beginning to bore most people.

  • Eurovicious’s words re: groupthink have never been more appropriate.

    Ella’s routine is only beginning to bore Digital Spy users, et al. The general public still love her – for not dissimilar reasons that they appear to love Maloney. I have enjoyed watching everybody predict that Ella is a spent force, and rising to the banner of the mighty Jahmene. What short memories we have. Stick JD back in that ridiculous green dickie of a couple of weeks ago and let’s see how far his support extends.

    Ella has been incredibly poorly mentored, it is true. However, the final attracts a much larger audience than the live rounds, many of whom (the voters) are undecideds/neutral. Allow Ella to reprise ‘Missing’, her superb composition performed in her first audition, and she will be able to run the twin titans very close indeed.

    James Arthur is a very big talent; however, for reasons which will work in his favour once the show finishes, he isn’t likely to win the vote of the Silent Majority. JD is a lovely guy, and should you read my very first comment on this site I described him as the most talented contestant by a long margin. But his tendency to over-sing could prove a turn-off, never mind the fact that he has endured several disappointing weeks before coming into bloom just recently.

    It’s defintely not over just yet.

    Daniel – When are we going to get your article entitled: ‘Could Christopher Maloney win the X-Factor 2012’? 🙂

  • eurovicious

    Off-topic: if anyone’s interested, Martin F, who used to be a regular commenter here, is a contestant on ITV1’s “The Chase” today at 5pm…

  • Delicatessen

    James Arthur just happens to be lucky to be in the right place in the right time, with his image, fashion and style of music.

    Ella is timeless.

    Whether Ella wins the the battle or not, in five years time she will have certainly won the war.

 Leave a reply...