X Factor 2012 Week 5 Elimination: The hit list

This morning brought confirmation that Lucy has withdrawn from the X Factor.

Clearly, health is vastly more important than a TV show, and it’s obvious that what Lucy needs now is a period of recuperation away from the glare of publicity. There’s nothing more to say except to send Lucy our wholehearted best wishes.

Let’s now focus our attention on the acts who remain, and the market for the week 5 elimination.

I think there are three acts on producers’ disposable list this week. They are Kye, District 3 and Chris.

Kye had been backed into 7/2 favourite to be eliminated before the announcement of Lucy’s withdrawal, which will cause bookmakers to remake their lists this afternoon. I can understand the sentiment behind that support. He is the least charismatic contestant and is coming off a sympathy bounce. Programme makers gave him every help last week with a big production for ‘Let Me Entertain You’, having sent him up in flames during weeks 2 and 3.

Pulling off Robbie Williams isn’t easy; we saw the real thing entertain the crowd on the next night’s results show. Nonetheless, Kye’s lack of stage presence was clear despite his best efforts. The most memorable tweet of the night came from someone who explained Kye’s performance was “like my Dad nicked my leather jacket and hired some prostitutes”.

District 3 have also had one week of kind treatment, again going with the grain of a sympathy bounce in week 3’s ‘Beggin’ mash-up. (I have to admit it’s my favourite performance of the series so far, but that may be a combination of Frankie Valli and the back-flip.) Otherwise producers have been metaphorically kicking sand in the boys’ faces, including last week’s Clockwork Orange-themed production.

The surprise inclusion of preferred boyband rivals Union J in the bottom two may have indicated to the powers that be they should have got rid of District 3 when they had the chance – in the week 2 singoff. As a result of not doing so we now have a proper ‘battle of the boybands’ narrative. I can’t imagine it’s one that programme makers will want to continue for long. With Union J likely to bounce this week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see producers killing District 3 softly by making them as unappealing as possible.

The attempted assassination of Chris Maloney has been even less subtle, so much so that last week’s shipwreck theme for the so-called cruiseship singer felt relatively kind. ‘I Just Died in Your Arms Tonight’ at least seemed like a good fit vocally. That song was from 1986, his week 3 effort was from 1988 and his week 2 choice from 1987. I can’t wait to see which number from ‘Now That’s What I Call Music 13′ they have in store for him this week.

Thing is, being called out on doing cheesy 80s numbers is giving him a definite shtick to go alongside the nerves and obvious fact that he is not the producers’ favourite. Maybe giving him something modern and inappropriate will be tried to alienate his support. Can I suggest 50 Cent or Flo Rida? Quite how long he can last is open to question, but it’s already further than I was willing to consider a few weeks ago.

Alongside these three in a tight betting market that reminds me of a 0-90 Catterick handicap is Rylan Clark. I still think producers want him around for another week or two but I’ll be slightly concerned if they do decide to give him a stripped back production, as he promised last week. As eurovicious pointed out, it was hardly impressive when he did ‘One Night Only’ in the week 1 singoff.

On the other hand, if a stripped-back performance lands him in the bottom two, it opens the door for a “get back to entertaining us” rationale for a singoff save. That should be easy enough to pull off if he lands up in the bottom two against Kye or Christopher. If it’s against District 3, the problem would come if Rylan is bottom and needs a 3-1 save. While there must have been some reason for Gary’s rapprochement with Rylan last week, such a scenario would test how much of his credibility he’s willing to sacrifice for the show.

There are still long odds about Ella, Jahmene and James even hitting the bottom two. I know that some commentators are starting to sniff around such prices for whichever act of these three they feel is least secure. I need to see evidence of a proper deramp before joining them; each has been treated very well so far.

I’m not getting involved in this week’s elimination at this point, mainly because that disposable list of three poses a question. What would producers’ priorities be in any singoff involving two of them: ditch the least charismatic; ditch the surplus boyband; or ditch Maloney? I’m not sure.

Let me know your feelings on this below.

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40 comments to X Factor 2012 Week 5 Elimination: The hit list

  • Daniel, re some punters starting to bet on Ella, Jahmene and James for elimination/bottom 2: I think this is for a couple of reasons combined. Firstly, at around this point there seems to be a shock exit some years (Laura, Lucy, Aiden). Plus, the unpredictability introduced by the changing singing slot dynamics and the D3 Vs Melanie save has reduced punter confidence (and logic I would say!) in who might be saved in such case .

    • Daniel

      Hi Panos, I agree that it’s worth keeping an eye out for. What I’m trying to get across is that I would need to watch a show and see the red flags before getting involved. So far I haven’t seen enough of them in one of their performances to persuade me.

    • Curtis

      It has to be pointed out that Laura, Lucy and Aiden were not shock exits to everyone. For me it was quite clear for all 3 that their vote was going to be in and around the bottom 2 at that time, for various reasons. Certainly can’t see any of the “big 3” getting eliminated this week.

  • Henry VIII

    No ante-post price grabs me either atm.

    A couple of relevant videos I’ve seen over the last couple of days regarding what you say Daniel (I didn’t bookmark them but I’m sure they’re easy to find):

    A comedy VT, probably planned for Xtra Factor, showing the 2 boybands trying to spy and sabotage each other ie the battle narrative.

    Rylan being interviewed at the Cosmopolitan awards saying he was doing his original type performance, not stripped back, because it was “what the fans wanted”. Nichole being a bit more reticent saying it would be a mixture.

  • Tim B

    I don’t really agree that the show is after Maloney. I think they have recognised he’s turned into a bit of a hate figure and there is a bit of value in keeping him around. Their treatment of him in the last two weeks has confirmed this to me – the appropriate song choices plus an attempt at drumming up the Liverpool vote in his VT last week. His songs also appeal to a niche – that crucial older demographic when his competitors are mostly singing more current songs.

  • tpfkar

    Well I always had Lucy down for the shock week 5 exit; sometimes it sucks being right – we should all send her our best wishes as the article says.

    If we are all agreed on the ‘disposable list’ theory then the article makes good sense, with the possible exception of Rylan, if the aim of a true vocal performance is to complete his journey, with Gary saying how he now respects Rylan as a vocalist. The hate disappears, he becomes less interesting, and plunges into the bottom 2.

    Only other factor is how much they really care about Union J. If the answer is ‘not much’ then it probably is one of the three plus maybe Rylan. Otherwise it does make sense to maximise the sympathy bounce by dumping on District 3 while there is still time for their fans to go to Union J. Treatment of D3 this weekend may tell us more about UJ than anything else.

  • As the only female contestant left, Ella is safe as houses.

    Would the producers really want to continue to pimp Union J? They’ve had favourable treatment since the start of the lives and were still in the bottom two last weekend – reason enough, perhaps, to switch allegiances to District 3? Thinking about after the show, Simon Cowell already has One Direction after all… District 3, with their honeyed R&B vocals and tender harmonies, have a slightly bigger gap in the market on their side.

  • Boki

    The amazing thing of two new acts in bot2 each week is going to stop here but the question remains if one new act is going to join the club. Lucy was the main candidate and it’s hard to believe the big3 will loose a member but let’s wait for the performances – UJ showed last week anything is possible.
    Rylan in bot2 would be the best solution for tptb imo, not sure if they realize that :). If two of the mentioned trio (Kye, Chris, D3) ends up in bot2 they could continue with ‘we don’t care so go to deadlock’ style since last week was again perceived negative. Btw, I would keep Kye since he’s the most easier to get rid of later. D3 bounced for 2 weeks so they are little more dangerous but Chris was never in bot2 so if he bounces next 2 weeks he will be already in wk8, so he’s still my first choice to go in a sing-off but I may be completely wrong.

  • Dan

    There’s an obvious top three, like you mention, of Ella, Jahmene and James but I’m not too sure about the bottom. Don’t discount Rylan from that as I think he’s probably outlived his usefulness now. I draw a parallel between him and Johnny Robinson from last year who went out in week five; both novelty acts who were fun for a bit (well, Johnny was) but half way through the competition and things are getting more serious.

    It’s interesting that half of the remaining acts have been in the bottom two, particularly the boybands. Nothing scientific but the frequent Union J and D3 top trends on Twitter don’t appear to be translating into votes. I’m not sure who is voting for Kye because it’s not clear who his target audience is and I suspect that he will be in trouble again this week. As for Shakey, is he top four or flagging just off bottom two? I suspect that there are too many forty-something ladies nostalgic for the 80’s that are voting for it to be the latter.

    As for my view on bottom two this week – Rylan and Kye, but no money on it as I was burned by not laying Jade at a decent price when I had the opportunity.

    Oh and:

    Pulling off Robbie Williams isn’t easy

    *snigger* (sorry)

  • eurovicious

    I wonder whether bookmakers will refund other bets on Lucy (win, top 3 etc)?

    District 3 Week 3 is your favourite performance of the series so far? I shall now proceed to laugh at you for 15 minutes 😀 guess it’s those Moves Like Donny, huh? 😉

    Yeah, “hardly impressive” perhaps the understatement of the century for Rylan’s ear-shatteringly awful singoff vocal #makeitstop. I hope they’ve done serious coaching with him for this week – he needs it!

    I’m all about Kye or D3 to go this week. I feel Gary wouldn’t necessarily go along with a “nobbling” of Chris. As much as I’d love to see Maloney tackle Fatty Boom Boom by Die Antwoord, Gary knows that giving him something too modern wouldn’t be demographic-appropriate (as we saw from Kye’s and Carolynne’s unpopular ballad versions of contemporary songs) and that to stay in the competition, Chris needs to keep on doing what he’s doing, despite the flak from the other judges. Given that the middle-England cheesefest of Strictly, with its living-room-friendly brand of non-threatening camp, is now thoroughly trouncing X Factor in the ratings, Chris’s audience is clear. The nation has been crying out for a tangerine Michael Ball; I know I have. The best tweet I saw about the show’s treatment of him was from @PeteJLewis, 13 Oct: “Is it only cheesy because he’s gay and camp? He’s singing the songs with no gimmick and I don’t think it’s cheesy.” In a series short on people doing straightforward covers, he’s one of the few who does – not a mashup, not a reinterpretation, no leaping around, just a guy with a great voice singing a song – and people respond to that.

    Finally I think in terms of value, small long-odds bets on some of the favoured acts to go B2 can’t be a bad idea.

  • Donald

    Best wishes to Lucy as you say.

    It is No.1 songs this week so maybe song choice will come into it especially if one given a song too big for them or a forgettable one hit wonder. Not getting involved in bottom two market just yet but might depending on song choice.

    Over the years they have got their person around now with song choice so just might happen this weekend.

    Still think it between Kye, Rylan and one of the boybands for bottom 2 which means it not really a punting proposition at the minute although if they want to loose a surplus boyband this is their opportunity. Be interesting to see what they try, waiting until the show tonight. Good luck to all.

  • Shade

    Posted this in the previous thread but shifting it into this one as its the most recent:

    In all honesty, I think with the swing in voting power to an older section of the viewing audience, Jahmene is the most likely winner now. I’m not sure if they have time to set up a significant de-ramp after already employing the child abuse storyline.

    In terms of the other two you’ve identified as top 3, both more credible, but they can use the oft-referenced “Ella’s only 16″ against her and no doubt as soon as she gets into trouble they’ll give her ‘age-appropriate’ songs to sing that’ll only land her in hot water, like Diana Vickers’ horrible attempt at Avril Lavigne pop a couple years back.

    James Arthur I don’t think has the looks or the clean-cut appeal of Jahmene, who I see as coming out of the pack as the Joe McElderry of this series, with the added bonus of being a clean-cut Christian who doesnt seem to be raring to burst out of the closet any time soon.

    The only way Lucy’s staying in is by nobbling enough of the other acts every week to push her just above the bottom 2 I think. Maybe they could push her friendship with Rylan as he seems to be proving popular.

    This is a very odd year; none of the contestants we have, though they seem to fit the bills of former stereotypes, seem to be like ‘modern X Factor contestants’. Instead I’d describe them as a mix of Pop Idol and BGT entrants, a lot of the arrangements this year have been very karaoke and outdated, not so ‘glossy’ and polished as last year’s – although perhaps not trying to appear so manufactured?

  • stoney

    i tipped kye to go at the start of the week @ 9/2 that now looks huge

  • Alen

    i wrote this a while ago too: if they want to get rid of christoper just give him a current song. his voters will be confused cause they dont want the new maloney. plus a: whole liverpool is behind you comment from the judges and he is gone.

    i wonder if they want to get rid of rylan maybe so nicole doesnt have all acts left. who knows.

    right now i think its between kye and district3
    too.

  • AlisonR

    Depending on District 3’s treatment tonight, I think bottom two will either be Kye & D3, or Kye & Rylan. Kye would probably go in either scenario. If D3/Rylan then I think Rylan would go as he’s got as far as he needed to and the “battle of the boybands still has legs”. Neither will win, and they don’t want them to. Maloney would probably go against D3, not sure if up against Kye or Rylan. But I don’t think he will be bottom two. TPTB’s best chance of getting rid of him would have been a double elimination around now, but Lucy’s exit has scuppered that. I think Maloney will now end up fourth overall.
    AlisonR, now using Chrome.

  • AlisonR

    Yep, Chrome worked first time. Hopefully the end of my posting problems, and it has remembered my details too 😀

  • Finbarr Saunders strikes again.

    Pnarf, pnarf!

  • Daniel

    Rylan has just tweeted that he is first up tonight. Possibly given a big production like Kye last week would be my guess.

  • tpfkar

    D3 in a late sandwich between Ella and Jahmene, Christopher last of all. If our new theories are right, that’s the producers’ ideal bottom 2

  • annie

    So Christopher is the post climactic closing of the night. and district 3 is the forgetable cucumber in the ella and jahmene sandwich 😀

  • Donald

    What a tweet just on Twitter, had to post!

    “This really is the nadir or pop culture. A triumph for a lack of style over an even bigger lack of substance” #rylan #xfactor

  • stoney

    kye being between rylan and union j is a sandwich too considering lucys votes will go to rylan, and union j will have a huge bounce back vote

  • stoney

    got the order wrong in my previous post

    Union J getting the little mix treatment of naming there individual locations! Nice little helping hand for them! bet district dont get that

  • Donald

    Off the point a little but when did Love Story make No.1??

  • stoney

    awful stuff from kye

  • Kevin O Reilly

    James Arthur quality again

  • stoney

    good luck picking up votes between union j and that james arthur performance.

    also i notice kye got the red and black which means the producers definately want him out, but wait a minute, james arthur got it too DOH

    and still we keep hearing about it, i just see someone post up about it on digital spy too

    one day people will stop mentioning the red and black myth!!!!!!!

    • eurovicious

      It’s contextual and not as simple as just “red and black”…

      • stoney

        lol thats only been said in recent times when counter arguments have been bought up, there is no way in a million years that red and black is high up the manipulation charts, it gets used a lot so obviously its gonna go hand in hand with SOME eliminations, but more people dodge it than fall to it

  • Kevin O Reilly

    Just had a cut off District 3, I think and hope that they are going to be shafted.

  • stoney

    jesus christ district have been launched under the bus tonight!!!

  • Those D3 judges comments don’t help much. Paired with their place in the running order… A lock for the bottom 2

  • Oh dear, Kye got the “Sophie Habibis” treatment where he visits his brother at work, and then sits with him, with everyone else not really taking any notice.

  • stoney

    Jahmene – performance of the series, hell be the favourite by this time tomorrow

  • stoney

    landed my 3rd elimination in a row, and my biggest win of the series, and had a little bet on union j first called safe 🙂

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