X Factor 2012 Live Show 3: In for the kill for Maloney?

We’ve speculated a lot about whether “early is the new late” now that the lines are open from the start of the show. But in a way this felt like a very traditional running order, with the first two acts appearing to be ones the show is happiest to see the back of – especially as they were immediately followed by one of the most affecting VTs ever seen on the show.

Chris Maloney was given the old Johnny Robinson 2-1 punch from last year – sent out second to soften him up, then first the following week when going in for the kill. This was a clear indication that producers think it can still be a disadvantage to go at the start of the show.

Chris’s treatment was noticeably less full-on than last week. His VT didn’t mention the numerous tabloid attacks on him from during the week, instead focusing on his struggle to master some dance moves. Those dance moves, incidentally, caused him to miss a few notes. We suspect this was not accidental.

He was sent out in a dated and shiny suit, and the judges seemed to be competing for how many times they could say “cheese”. But the tone was noticeably more lukewarm this week – Nicole, oozing smiley insincerity, said she was embracing it. Louis called it “cheesy but fun” and said “you did very well”.

As Boki and Curtis astutely noted in the comments, Gary carefully phrased his Liverpool reference this week to be a complacency-inducing “all of Liverpool is behind you”, rather than an exhortative “I want all of Liverpool to get behind you”.

This all suggested to us that producers were keen not to stir up a sympathy vote for Chris, and that they think they might be able to get him out this week.

MK1 appear to be being offered up as backup sacrificial lambs. Tulisa and Gary both sounded like Sven Goran-Eriksson – “first half good, second half not so good”. But in this circumstance, it seems likely that viewers will remember only the criticism.

We’re still thinking they’d likely be saved over Maloney, if it came to that. But it looks like they’re considered expendable if need be.

Both Chris and MK1 were immediately rammed down the memory hole by an extraordinarily powerful VT focusing on Jahmene’s troubled family background, as told to The Sun. This was in the same class as the “Insecure Jesy” VT that set Little Mix on their way last year, although it is interesting that the show has chosen to deploy this boost for Jahmene at a relatively early stage of the competition.

That’s a debate for another day. Back to the elimination market, and Jade Ellis’s VT treated us to an endoscopy of her inflamed vocal chords – the most medical detail we can remember in a VT since The Voice metaphorically rammed Jazz Ellington’s functional sperm down viewers’ throats.

Her performance was understandably a bit meh, so her safety this week probably comes down to whether sympathy drives enough viewers to pick up the phone. We’re not quite as confident as commenters Curtis and Jack that it will – unfortunately for Jade, a sore throat does rather pale in comparison to the story of surviving child abuse that immediately preceded it.

Does an anxiety attack trump a sore throat? With James’s VT focusing on his post-show collapse, you could have been forgiven for thinking the X Factor had morphed into Casualty.

Those with an open mind to Betsfactor’s theory that red and black lighting is intended to be unhelpful will have been intrigued by James’s set. Was this a gentle deramping? Nope – Louis hit the “record deal” button again, followed by Gary’s “performance of the series”.  James has the self-deprecating charm to pull off ‘Sexy And I Know It’, and the song choice allowed both Gary to reference James’s musicianship and Nicole to dwell on his attractiveness to the opposite sex.

Union J got red-and-blacked as well, and as AnnaC noted their VT failed to mention the event during the week that had to be cancelled because there were too many fans to guarantee their safety, instead showing them being followed around a shop by a smaller posse of admirers. But rather than a Sophie Habibis nobble, this may have been intended merely to make sure they don’t peak too soon with the female hysteria thing. In other ways their treatment once again followed the One Direction playbook – “next big thing”, hard work, humility, helpful backing track, “next massive band”, rinse and repeat.

To our surprise, operation Saving Private Rylan felt like it had been allowed to step down a gear with a performance that was less fun than the previous week, in a register too low for Rylan’s anyway-weak vocals, with a VT that risked him coming across as arrogantly rather than amusingly vain, and not immediately followed by an ad break to allow for more immediate voting time.

On the other hand, comments from both Louis (“we need you in the competition”) and Tulisa (“I always want to see you again”) seemed crafted to set up their reasons for saving Rylan in a sing-off. But if it’s a girl or group Rylan faces, thus taking one of those two mentors out of the equation, it’s hard to see how they could pull off saving Rylan unless through deadlock – which of course relies on him not being bottom of the vote.

Lucy had her strongest week so far, showing that she can do covers with an enjoyable take on ‘Titanium’. The positivity of judges’ comments left little doubt that producers want to keep her in the competition for a while yet.

Signals were altogether more mixed for Kye. His VT went to great lengths to remind us how bad he had been the previous week, Gary calling him out on “32 flat notes” and telling us he is “going downhill”. This week’s performance was vocally much better, but it was noticeable that he was – in the words of Chatterbox5200 in the comments – “on top of a bonfire with post-apocolyptic scenes being played on screens around him”.

The judges gave him a Chris Martin comparison and told us that the old Kye was back. Then again, the old Kye was anonymous and forgettable, so it’s debateable how much help this will be for him.

Perhaps the main thing to take from Kye’s far from universally helpful treatment is that it forms a counter-argument to the idea that producers will be reluctant to leave Gary with one act left so early in the competition. If that was playing on producers’ minds, we would have expected more boosterism for Kye.

Producers worked with the grain of the sympathy bounce for District 3, giving them as much help as they could have expected. They got a good song choice that worked noticeably better with the theme than Kye’s had, and got their name up in big letters in the backdrop as Union J had in the first week. Perhaps producers treated them well because they are as interested as we are to isolate the effects of performing late in the running order? At any rate, this didn’t feel like an attempt to get them into the bottom two.

Ella finished the show, and coped as well with the club classics theme as Frankel had with heavy ground at Ascot.

All in all, we think Boki has it right: “I can only think of tonight as back to the old track. One clear target in death slot, ones in danger close to the end and pimped with last slot to Ella who will survive no mather what. I think they expect Rylan in bot2 and want to take Chris with him. If Chris doesn’t end up in bot2 I will be surprised in the GBP.”

We reckon Shakey Maloney would go in a singoff against any of the acts he might reasonably find himself up against, and we’re happy to tip him to be the next elimination at best odds of 5/2 with Betfred and Ladbrokes at the time of writing. We have to give three caveats – we got the singoff hideously wrong last week; we’re not at all sure what’s going on behind the scenes with Gary; and they still haven’t confirmed for sure that it’s a single not a double elimination this week. But those odds look pretty juicy to us, considering Chris’s treatment tonight.

Agree or disagree? Do let us know in the comments below.

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102 comments to X Factor 2012 Live Show 3: In for the kill for Maloney?

  • AnnaC

    Rylan’s VT also showed that his natural hair colour is ginger – possibly another little bit of de-ramping.

  • PG

    Did Dermot use the phrase , ” one of these acts will not be here next week on this stage” ( or something similar ) during the show. Surely implying that there was only a single eviction this week.

  • Tim B

    Sorry, quite drunk and out but I have to agree with a couple of things. I saw Rylan’s treatment as kind of happy to see him in bottom 2. It did seem like a typical show BUT do not forget that the phone lines are open from the start of the show, and we only have 2 weeks of data to go on but this has made a big difference. Still, I see MK1, Jade, Rylan and Kye in danger. Chrisopher in danger according to the markets but I think he was quite strong – and in the new pimp slot of course.

  • tpfkar

    My biggest note of the night was Rylan and I think you’ve got this right in the main post. Everything reminded me of week 1 when he was in the bottom 2: VT about how vain he is, no witty banter, song that only serves to highlight his vocal weaknesses, mid-running order. Given that there are now 2 vote-weaker contestants gone, I will tip his as bottom of the vote.

    Between Kye and Christopher for 2nd last, for me. Notable was how they cut to the judges in both acts who were looking down / away, instead of being entranced by the acts. Christopher bottom 2 if I had to call it, it seemed a sharper effort on him this week, and they must have nearly got him last time if they are playing the 2-1 trick.

    This will take us into all the scenarios that Gary has allegedly threatened to walk over, and several other acts have shown tonight that they can do entertaining – so I don’t now see Rylan as indispensable like he was 2 weeks ago.

    The groups were a revelation tonight. District 3 have gone from cannon fodder to being allowed to shine, to go next to last and have their name on the giant screen throughout is a real U-Turn. I’m having to warm to the battle of the boybands having legs, and on tonight’s evidence D3 could take UJ on if allowed to; I still can’t find any reality to match the hype for UJ. Doesn’t look good for MK1 sadly.

  • eurovicious

    You know, I’m really glad for that “metaphorically”… 😉

    Just been comparing notes with Tim and we have the same 4 acts “in danger”: MK1, Jade, Rylan and Kye. (I also have Chris). Of those 4, I think Rylan’s the most likely to go bottom 2. His problems from week 1 have resurfaced – the vocal was off throughout and he didn’t look like he was enjoying his performance (quite the opposite – he delivered it in the same grim, joyless, workmanlike, sour-faced manner as he did with “Gold” in week 1). There was no humour, either provided by him or the arrangement, which (unlike last week’s witty pop-cultural melange) was odd and jarring. And dressing and styling him as what I can only describe as “Jessie Wallace playing Servalan in a shit Blake’s 7 remake” didn’t help either. Lucy and James were superb, both boybands should definitely be safe, and Ella was more mediocre than usual (and in a late slot that we’ve seen prove dangerous the last 2 weeks).

    I was surprised by the old-school running order, with Chris first and Ella last, because I thought we’d established over the past 2 weeks that having the lines open from the beginning reverses the usual order of favour, with the show losing viewers over the course of the evening as people switch off or over once they’ve seen their favourites. As such, I actually see MK1 (who were fun and contemporary) and Jade (who should get sympathy and who was vocally fine given the circumstances) in less danger than Rylan and perhaps even Kye. I’m not sure who the target audience for Kye’s performance was, and stylistically, it somehow reminded me of Melanie’s last week, in that I’m not quite sure what or why it was and how it’s relevant to the viewer. It’s also worth noting that Kye was in a sarnie between a very strong Lucy and a pimped, lively District 3. The other sarnie that leaps out at me is Jade, with her own segment between a strong Jahmene and James, albeit early in the running order. I can’t recall seeing 3 heavy sympathy VTs one after the other like that either (Jahmene, Jade, James). Will Jade in the middle be forgotten?

    Bottom 2 prediction: Rylan plus any of Chris, MK1, Jade or Kye.

  • There are a few things I think are being overlooked here.

    Would they want Gary to have only one act left with 6/7 weeks remaining, his role will be heavily reduced and will become boring. Doesnt fit well with his alpha judge role.

    Also it seems that you are saying it looks like its a negative to be on first. I think that the fact nobody has been in the bottom 2 from an early slot for the first time in X Factor history in the opening two weeks is very very signicant. Even worse when you see its exactly the opposite and the acts bottom of the votes int he previous weeks sung last and second last.

    For both those reasons I have to assume Chris is safe. Also dont over look Gary reminding us that the PUBLIC voted him back in, your the publics act. (He said something along those lines) This is a clear reminder to his fans that they are HIS fans. Translates to “Remember you like Chris”

    Ok thoughts on tonight.

    First up as soon as I saw the running order I immediately spotted Jade had the worst slot surrounded by the top 3 in the betting (excluding Ella). Backed her again to go at 20-1 and at the end again at 10s.

    I asked someone 3 acts later, if they could even remember what Jade sung? The answer was of course no. She is just very very forgettable and for the second week in a row, no mention of her daughter in the VT. I see only negatives for Jade. I wonder if 5 minutes after Jade had sung you ask a neutral what acts have been on so far, how many will not remember jade.

    I thought although MK1 where better, there comments were average and mixed. This is worse than negative. I have backed them all week at 9-2 to 11-2 to go, hoping that this is still in with a chance should Jade not be in bottom two.

    Also I thought Kyes VT was all about showing how bad he was so that when he came out it actually made him look even better than it was. Leading me to still believe the only reason he was given negative comments last week was just to keep Rylan safe. They did that and now can get some of his votes back.

    Also note Louis’ words to Rylan “The show needs you” he couldnt have meant it more, I imagine this will be used should Rylan be in the bottom 2.

    Right now I see jade as being the act that goes. I could even see her beating Rylan via deadlock (Thanks to Louis’ vote).

    This week I have backed MK1 to go at 11/2, Lucy bottom 2 at 13/2, Jade bottom 2 and to go at 7/1 and 20s/10s.

    If i was to recommend a bet now. It would have to be Jade to go at 9-1. All signs are pointing to her for me.

    • Boki

      Fully agree with Jade might be in danger of bot2. But why did they bother with the throat story if they want her out?

      • Buster

        Perhaps it lays the foundations of a plausible save in the event that she’s in the bottom two – “You were struggling with your throat but I know you can do better next week…”

        Of course it would all depend on who she finds herself in the mire with.

    • Morning, jscouser! Not overlooking, just rethinking (maybe completely wrongly ;-))

      Re running order, clearly Carolynne and Melanie tell us something has changed but as Curtis says below we don’t yet know how much, and our thinking is that producers will have more data than we do. We know who’s been last and second last in the votes, but we don’t know any of the other stats. By how far did D3 escape in the first week? How did Jahmene’s vote from last in week 1 compare to his vote from 1st in week 2?

      After the torrid week Chris had in the tabloids, for producers to put him up first suggests to us that they still think this is an unhelpful place to be. We (and/or they) may be wrong.

      As for Gary, we haven’t a clue what the thinking is. Agree that it would be ridiculous to have Gary act-less for six weeks, but in that situation – as Walter says below – Cowell could easily step in to “sack” him and become a non-mentoring judge himself for the last half of the series. It would only require a couple of hours of his weekend lunchtimes on Skype.

      Who knows what they’re thinking, but they’re playing a dangerous game with Kye if they want him to get far.

  • Bexley

    Find myself in disagreement not so much with the description of the performances but with the conclusions.
    I think they are resigned to Maloney for a while. His performance to me was more than adequate; he was aided by the return of the shakes whilst speaking to Dermot and my gut reaction was that he ‘s as safe as houses this week. Haven’t had cause to revise that even after reading your insights.
    Rylan, Jade, Mk1, Union J I’d have all below him in a public vote.

    On the OR picture, I thought Jahmene’s VT had the telltale conclusion/end of a journey feel to it. His performance for at least the first half of the song was quite dreadful and he looked a complete prat.
    A good night for James, the first time all series I have enjoyed a Lucy performance and Frankella as good as ever.

    • I thought what they have done with Jahmene was very very clever.

      His “Story” all through X Factor was nerves/anxiety etc. But after 2 weeks of performing fine, his story had ended. So what did they do? They went and created another one for him, it was perfect.

      (A negative for me as I’m on all things Pro James including top boy)

  • Curtis

    Just want to say I think it is really strong to call the 1st to perform the ‘pimp slot’ or say that the 1st slot is any stronger than any other slot. We have absolutely no evidence to suggest that that’s true. We know that the classical pimp slot isn’t what it once was, but for all we know the act that performed 1st both weeks could have finished just outside the bottom 2 each time.

  • Also to add, Does anyone find it interesting that Brian leaves this week? Why are we done with Rylan i really hope not as thats a loser for me. But its worth taking into account.

    @Sofabet Team. In a previous article about the tour how mch it comes to producers decision making for eliminating acts. You point out that should they want an act in the Tour that left earlier than expected they can do it easily. I fully agree.

    But what you dont mention/question is.. what if an act they would rather not tour makes the final 6/7. They cant exactly dismiss them and have them not tour. Doesnt make sense? (Here brings me another positive for Jade to leave within the next 2 weeks, could she handle touring without her daughter etc?, but thats another issue)

    • eurovicious

      About Brian leaving: that is SUCH a valid point. Also Rylan was sandwiched betwen Union J and Lucy. And kicked out of the hotel this week. End of the road?

      • I dont rate Lucy as a contender, and she certainly isnt in the same class as the top 4. So I am happy with Rylans draw. (within reason) Could see him in bottom two but I really do hope that he still stays.

        Else its a bad week for JSc

    • Boki

      Brian leaves? Why and why?

      • When Dermot was interviewing Rylan, Rylan thanked Brian and then told the audience he was leaving on Monday.

        D3 thanked him also after their performance.

        Maybe something of nothing as they will have replaced him, other acts will need dance routines regardless.

        I have thought about it and trying not to over analysis it too much. I think Rylan safe from Elimination, but a danger for bottom 2. (hope not)

      • Lia

        Brian is probably returning to X Factor USA. Their live shows start in 2 weeks. I knew it was too good to be true and Simon wouldn’t be so kind to let his stay here. He just came to show the team how it’s done.
        I wonder who’s replacing him though. I thought it was Sisco Gomez helping him teach Shakey a few moves. Could it be him?

    • Good question – I guess if the act doesn’t want to tour and the show don’t want the act on tour, there should be no problem for them simply to drop out?

  • Chatterbox5200

    JScouser2002 – Great minds think alike. I just posted a similar thought about Brian Friedman’s departure and the impact on Rylan’s staging in future weeks on a different thread, before reading your comment.

  • Ella’s late slot is surely an attempt to keep ratings up as she’s by far the most popular act. So people would watch it all until their favourite came on.

    Also, leaving Gary with no acts this early on doesn’t sound as undesirable as it is. He’d fall out with and quit the show and they’d have Cowell back seeing as TXF-USA is considered for axing by FOX.

  • Lia

    I was a bit confused by all the “this contestant had a horrible week” and VT showing. Even Lucy got a horrible week last week. And District 3. And Kye.
    Is the X Factor really the cause of so much pain to the contestants? Has it now turned into a sad story competition?
    – “I suffered this week”
    – “Yeah, but I suffered more”
    – “And I suffered last week, remember?”
    B. Hell!
    Rylan was just bad. I didn’t see the entertaining. He just looked sour faced all through it and that won’t help his case.
    I was surprised by the positivity around District3. I enjoyed their performance.
    Shakey is dead man walking. He’s toast, or better, cheese on toast.

  • Daniel

    Toby’s Twitter stats, now with added charts, are in for this week:

    http://anly.tk/2012/10/20/xfactor-twitter-roundup-week-3-dance-week/

  • Ben Cook

    “As Boki and Curtis astutely noted in the comments, Gary carefully phrased his Liverpool reference this week to be a complacency-inducing “all of Liverpool is behind you”, rather than an exhortative “I want all of Liverpool to get behind you”.

    This all suggested to us that producers were keen not to stir up a sympathy vote for Chris, and that they think they might be able to get him out this week.”

    – So the producers are writing Gary’s scripts now? Come on, don’t talk rubbish.

  • Bexley

    The cheesey comments for maloney haven’t worked so far I don’t see why they should this week. Yes a drip drip effect to eventual elimination but this week, as I stated earlier, not for me.

    Double elimination will be used to get rid of him, The fact it wasn’t used this week to me means they know they have to put up with him for now.

    Yes the Liverpool comment was telling but not in the way its being interpreted here – after all its clear they don’t want to keep him – but to me it was resignation. They know Liverpool is supporting him, he’s obviously getting significant votes and that project eliminate Maloney isn’t a starter for this week.
    Just my take on things 🙂

  • Bexley

    A recent comment on betfair about a voting leak in Sundays Star led me to this
    http://www.dailystar.co.uk/xfactor/view/278146/Chris-Maloney-I-m-no-faker-Louis-Walsh/
    This new info or a repeat of what was mainly written off here as a voting de-motivator?

    • Hi Bexley, This is very interesting, thanks! This detail is new

      In week one, Chris bagged more than double the votes of his nearest rivals Jahmene Douglas, 21, and Ella Henderson, 16, while last week he bagged a quarter of the vote, 10% more than Jahmene in second place.

      Can we really believe that Ella is doing that badly? The Star have got unlikely-sounding leaks right before (although it doesn’t bode well for factual accuracy that they got Chris’s week 2 song mixed up with his week 3 one).

      If true, would obviously mean you’re right that Shakey is safe as houses tonight.

      • Boki

        They forgot to mention Kye winning the vote last week. 🙂
        Seriously, I find this completely ridiculous (not my wallet yet), Caro and Mel suffered because of no target voting group (or to say they are not bothered to vote) and Chris is somehow adored.

      • Bexley

        From a purely betting perspective I think the way to play this is lay Maloney for bottom 2 and back him for elimination.
        There is no doubt in my mind the producers will want him out at the first opportunity and with the cheesey comments from all bar Gary gain last night I’m sure it would be 3-1 and out against anyone else. They can’t be having a voting threat to Ella.

        After a nights sleep I still have the gut feeling he’s as safe as houses but why not hedge the bets when the opportunity is available?

        • Boki

          That hedging seems resonable, probably the reason his bot2 odds are jumping high now.
          Btw I didn’t read the news correctly, so Chris is topping both weeks! It’s still hard to believe to me but I see also lot of people on DSpy think it might be true… united nannies strike again.

      • tpfkar

        Very interesting alleged voting frOm the Star. I’ll dedust the twitter stuff from last year and plug all that in. I’m not sure I believe Chris and Jahmene 1:2 in the voting but it should give an idea on Rylan and D3 as we have a week of safe and a week of unsafe for both.

  • Iain T

    Bottom two combo of Chris/Kye is 16/1 with Skybet – fantastic price for what I think is a very likely outcome.

  • I’m from Liverpool and trust me , I don’t know anyone who’s supporting Shaky Maloney. Phoney Maloney more like.

  • jake Kl

    Kinda gutted after tonight. Was hoping jade wouldnt get ‘sophie habibied’ but looks like iwas wrong. A few points on tonight though:
    Rylan- I noticed the cameras werent facing the judges during their comments to Rylan but were on their right and i had a feeling the judges (even Gary) were actually looking up to him. For me this means one thing: after Brian’s gone, they’re counting on Rylan to keep up the extravaganza in the coming weeks and they’re not ready to let go of him yet, even after a less than average performance.
    Lucy- being compared to James (True artist/guitar etc)we dont have to guess to know james is their favoured one over her, which makes her kinda unoriginal suddenly (originality being her strong point from the start) and even slightly useless.
    Ella- Her death slot should increase the raitngs, and shes as safe as always.good perofrmance without the weird hand mouvements
    James- Not only Alpha male, Alpha male/female/over/group. Brilliant performance
    Jahmene- pimped massively, sang allright. something tells me he not only had a bad week but also not alot of votes last sunday, even after the pimp slot.
    Jade- poor jade, in between 2 memorable acts she actually had a decent performance, shame the producers made her out to be so forgetful. fortunately, good comments from judges showed she hasnt finished her journey yet guaranteeing they’d save her against any1 else (out of the acts in risk) in a singoff.
    Union J/District3- good performances from both (i’d rather stick with the former though), not the end of D3 yet, battle of the boybands but i can already see Union J winning with a much larger fanbase.
    Which leaves the groups category with MK1, overshadowed by the other groups, forgetful, appearing out of their zone with louis, appearing weak without louis, looks like the end of the journey with them. shame, good performance.
    Which leaves the most intresting category, the Overs:
    Kye- Big comeback,reminders of good audition, good performance vocally, Alpha-over deff and guaranteed as Gary’s last act.
    Chris- I decided to leave chris till last b/c for me that was the real killing of a character, eventhough he was in the pimp slot. Similar comments to last week but this time the judges went another way and praised him (Louis mainly) which means one thing: good comments= fewer votes, seeing as this was his worst week vocally and perofrmance-wise too, they’ve now branded him the REAL joke act, tulisa even saying shes more entertained by Rylan than Chris, thus tarnishing his image and making it much easier for them to get rid of him in the coming weeks. Having said that hes only leaving in 2-3 weeks but is safe for now.
    Anyways, kudos to Rylan for being the only dancing act on a club classics week.
    Bottom2 tomorrow: MK1/Jade sadly. if three: Lucy

  • Mick

    I think we will continue to see top acts appearing last from now on, as already mentioned it keeps the veiwing figures up to the end and if last is a vote loser, those top acts can afford to lose votes and still stay out of trouble. Caan’t understand why Ella says she’s glad to dance and not stay glued to the mic stand then spends most of the song glued to the mic stand?

    It was definately a sympathy week with so many “problems” makes me wonder if they are trying to bumps up their votes or give them a helping hand out?

    I think Chris, Kye and Rylan are on their way but not just yet. There’s a bit more mileage in all of them.

    For me it’s Jade favorite with MK1 alongside her in the b2. The sore throat may be a life saver in a judges vote. Looks like they want a battle of the boy bands after giving D3 everything UJ has had since week 1. MK1 just hasn’t accumalated the following either of the other two have got.

  • Boki

    It seems the market (and lot of commenters here) disagree with Chris in bot2. I’m still not sure but it should mean the same target was missed twice in two weeks, he’s no Janet.
    Btw, when is the latest moment they can announce double elimination (and bottom 3)? Tonight?

  • Heisenberg

    Some stats again for my fellow Rainmen out there…

    6 out of 8 X Factor series have seen acts performing 1st or 2nd in week 3 eliminated.
    For Combo backers – Acts 2 and 7 in week 3 have ended up in the bottom 2/bottom 3 together in 4 out of 8 series.

    Therefore – watch out MK1.

  • stoney

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY8uUWJB4CU

    it really does amaze me how many times this red and black myth gets mentioned, and how many times i have tried to blow it out of the water. While i accept that through coincidence it may have a negative effect on voting, here is the proof that producers do not see it as a weapon to use to dampen votes

  • Henry VIII

    “This was a clear indication that producers think it can still be a disadvantage to go at the start of the show”

    Hang on Andrew, careful you’re not creating the facts to fit the theory. Slot 1 maybe better than the few that follow it at this stage. It is in ESC. Anybody have stats for XF? If so be careful with stats because in Strictly Come Dancing overlap years Slot 1 is a disaster.

    I don’t think they’re that bothered by Chris. They can get stuff in the press about him unlike most of the others. Even if they have to make it up (“diva-like”). His fakery provides some interest. They’d probably kick him out if in B2 with a group or Rylan though.

    And what do they do now with Rylan? He totally failed to deliver yesterday. I can’t see him as much of an asset any more.

    • “He failed to deliver”

      I’m not sure he did what he was meant to do. Entertain, get the judges arguing, all for ratings. Typical week for Rylan.They hardly expect him to top the vote. They just want him to entertain.

      Wont go this week imo, could be in the bottom 2. But think safe anyway.

    • Hi Henry, your caution about creating facts to fit the theory is well taken.

      We’re assuming that producers are out to minimise Chris’s vote. Indeed, if the assumption is wrong, so is the inference about running order.

  • Does anyone think that they are begining to switch horses from Union J to D3?

    I dont have any firm view, but was interesting to see the video of “District 3” highlighting their name behind them as they sung? In week 1 we assumed “Union J” were favoured since they had a much better production and a stood on a platform with their name highlighted, whilst GMD3 were forgettable.

    This week? totally the opposite.

    Also remember D3 were getting the comments including the word “Harmony” which i deemed negative by asking when was the last time a “Vocal Harmony Group” were number 1, Last night howevr it was UJ that were commented on saying needed more Harmonys etc.

    Just asking the question?

    • jake Kl

      No i really dont think Union J were treated badly this week. They had a good song, great performance, good comments from the judges. However by creating a rivalry between the 2 boybands, they were hoping to increase the ratings. District3 had the worst slot this week (except Jade maybe), performing late, right before Ella and the producers wanted to see if that effect would be overcome by sympathy votes and alot of pimping. But they really cant switch horses after 3 weeks of live shows when Union J, with a much larger fanbase have the momentum to get to the finals already

    • stoney

      would be a huge gamble baring in mind d3 were bottom 2 last week, and union j have well over double of d3 twitter following. The only way your theory is feasible is if union j have been scraping above bottom 2 both weeks, which again i highly doubt but its not impossible

  • jake Kl

    Just had a look on todays XF updates and im not suprised to see Chris topping the votes 2 weeks in a row , explaining his de-ramping and the percentage difference getting shortened between chris and jahmene from wk1 to wk2 means they’re doing it right.

  • stoney

    if jahmene is polling highly and they are pushing the major sob story on him, it is now becoming likley he is the producers choice to win this series

    • Bexley

      Thats where I seem to be in disagreement with JScouser and now you Stoney. I understand the news broke this week so they chose to highlight it and milk it for all it was worth but where do they go from here?
      A final triumphant show where they all say what an example he is to broken families/victims of abuse? Perhaps but they have to get him there first.
      For me he isn’t even first choice boy.

      • Just to make certain… I dont think Jahmene makes the final.. he will be the “Shock” exit in 3-4 weeks.

        Pretty much every bet I have placed the past 3 weeks has got James Top boy in it 😀

        Been backing him since his audition, now I am officially too biased and stubborn to change my mind 😉 (Code for.. too late I’ve max bet’ him everywhere, ill stick with it )

  • Highlighted

    Is Jahmene seriously a recording artist/popstar? I don’t think so. But maybe they think he can be.

  • Lola

    If the producers are trying to save him, Rylan wasn’t playing along- looking thoroughly miserable and agreeing with Gary that there are 10 better singers in the competition (in a horribly resigned “I’m a joke” way).

    The other contenders for the bottom three are: Jade, Chris and MK1. MK1 would be gone over Rylan. Chris…. I’m not so sure- will they really leave Gary with just one act?? Tough but I guess they would as the judges have set Chris up to be sent home if he’s in the b2. I think Jade has had such positive comments- I guess it would go to deadlock with Tulisa and Gary backing Jade and PussycatDoll and Louis backing Rylan. So it would be down to the public vote and I guess Jade would go home.

  • Lola

    (Despite Jahmene’s sob story and his talent, I think- like Danyl in the previous series- he won’t ever connect fully to the public and he will only make 4th. James is the alpha boy)

    • stoney

      i couldnt disagree more, my nan loves jahmene, the granny vote is probably split between him and fakey at the moment, but if fakey goes, jahmene will have that vote sewn up. They are brandishing him the inspiration. On the other hand james arthur is unlikeable on a misha b level, im not doubting his talent but cant see floating voters connecting with him in any way at the moment

  • eurovicious

    I was totally off last week, but for what it’s worth, my bottom 2 prediction for tonight is Rylan/Kye (with Rylan going). Chris, MK1 and Jade all had the relative advantage of early slots – when more viewers will be watching and voting than later – and fun/upbeat performances. Kye’s moribund ballad was late in the running order in a show with a later-than-usual start, so we can expect a significant degree of viewer dropoff despite Ella being on last. Visually and in its tone, it was reminiscent of Melanie’s performance last week, and it was another dangerous case of a contemporary song that older viewers won’t be familiar with shoehorned into a ballad style. I’ve outlined above why I think Rylan will be back in the bottom 2 – add to that the week 1 debacle, Gary’s ultimatum, and the fact Brian Friedman won’t be around to choreograph any more extravaganzas for him, and I think he’s going.

  • Nugg

    Much as I would like to beleive that Christopher or Kye will go this week , I just cannot see a situation where the head judge, Gary, is allowed to lose 3 acts the first 3 weeks of lives.
    This is basically saying that the head judge doesn’t know what he is doing and has picked badly. It would be embarassing and humuliating for Gary.

    So who does that leave to go? Its a tough call for me , if I was forced to pick I would say District 3, whose song choices and styling appear very dated, but I will not be punting.

    Jahmene got a great VT, one of the most vote gathering I have seen since the Jesy/fat/littlemix VT. Like others have said though, I just don’t see him as a winner and selling records.

    Rylan’s effort was nowhere near as much fun as last week, I think out of all the joke acts on XF in it’s history, Rylan has worked least well.

    • Boki

      Hi Nugg, you said you had a talk with mk1 and wouldn’t bet them to go this week. Why was that?

      • Nugg

        Hi Boki, I just got the impression from the way they were talking that MK1 seemed more confident than the district 3 guys and they were certainly getting a LOT more attention than district 3 , whose attendance was barely noticed, but then this was at a professor green concert so maybe not as unusual as I first thought, suprised no footage was used in XF. MK1 were genuine fun people and enjoying the ride, taking a week at a time, this is showing in their performances. I got a quick chat , so many things I wish I had said, but was very drunk and everyone was just enjoying the show.

        My own view remains that UNION J is the prefered boyband and that they would be willing to lose District 3 before MK1.

        I do think Rylan could be in danger this week, but feel that Garys acts will both be safe purely to keep the numbers balanced.
        In fact just watched it again, Rylan could be in serious danger. He looks like he has had enough.

        My confidence took a bit of a dent after last weeks losses so will just be watching from a distance for now.

    • eurovicious

      What about the bounce, Nugg? And District 3 were pretty pimped last night, plus there’s been a Twitter campaign to vote for them… IMO they’re safe as bungalows.

  • jake Kl

    Acts deff safe- Chris, Ella, Jahmene, James, Union J, District3, Rylan, Kye. Both of Garys acts were treated differently but at the same time pimped to avoid bottom2. Lucy’s in danger, how far down only depends on her fanbase. Jade/MK1 bottom2= MK1 leave. no bottom3 like derms said.

  • It’s a Sunday. 

    When religious followers are given a revelation they get inspired and go forth and spread the word. 

    It hurts me greatly that the gospel according to St Richard is being ignored. Especially after last year.  

    Some people are even dissing “Red and Black”.

    It’s difficult to predict Jo Public’s decisions, it’s also silly to bet big at this stage as the voting margins are so small. Christopher is definitely a “get rid” candidate and I wouldn’t be surprised if his shiny suit went tonight – but all the clues are there today as to who they *really* want to nuke. 

    I hoped to just disappear, and leave the Betsfactor Bible as my legacy, but alas I feel we need a refresher course.

    A brief second coming. Standby.

    http://www.betsfactor.com

  • To all those having trouble with the comments – we’ve succeeded (I think) in reverting to the old comments system.

    This unfortunately means losing the ability to log in using Twitter or Facebook. But several commenters have let us know they’ve been having trouble posting, either sporadically or all the time, and we didn’t know how else to sort it out. Hopefully this will do the trick.

    You may need to clear your cache before the new (i.e. old) comments system reappears.

    To be on the safe side, ctrl-a ctrl-c is your friend. And if you can’t get in at all, please let us know: http://sofabet.com/contact/

    Apologies for the inconvenience.

  • tpfkar

    Ah, good ol’ comments system returns – thank you.

    As promised I’ve cranked up the twitter comparison from last year, and plugged in all of Toby’s stats, the bottom 2 positions we know, and the Star’s leakage above.

    Firstly, I can’t find any way of Christopher topping the vote both weeks 1 and 2, particularly by 10% in week 2. His support on twitter plunged in week 2. Assuming that he topped week 1, I can get him second week 2, and as the rest of the article was a hatchet job I’m assuming the comments about his week 2 performance was misinformation. I’ve still got him second, and met all other constraints. Even to do this, I’ve had to give him a far stronger weighting than any other contestant last year as his twitter numbers are so small – serious caution on this.

    However with everything else in place, can I suggest a tentative bet on a RYLAN and JADE bottom 2 tonight? V difficult to place Jade,but a sensible weighting guess has her miles behind 9th place (Kye) this weekend. I have Jahmene and District 3 winning the vote, ahead of Christopher and Ella, and see D3 as safe as houses; they are having their best week to date.

    Very, very tentative, but hope this is useful.

    • eurovicious

      Hi tpfkar 🙂 – is there a link for this or is it just something you’ve done privately?

      Don’t know whether the leak is true or not, but I suspect Twitter isn’t the best gauge of support when it comes to Chris and the Overs in general. Its UK user demographic has a heavy teen girl bias, as evidenced by the love for Union J and District 3 (not to mention 1D, Justin Bieber etc.)…

  • stoney

    Using the big market movers as my indicator for this weekend as planned, and jade elis at 8/1 is my fancy, 4/1. As i said in the week there is always one bookmaker that has significantly lower odds than the other with regards to the act that is eventually being eliminated, which leads me to believe there is a leak and there hoping around different bookies each week to cash in on it

  • DT

    Jade is bottom (just) of YouTube views on the XFactor channel. Dunno how good an indicator this is. Also this week is a bit unreliable as technically District3 are right at the bottom but looks like there was an issue getting their video up as it went up 10 hours after everyone else.

    • Boki

      Yes but Chris is just above her.
      Do you take into account likes/dislikes there?
      Jade 46368 views, 1,207 likes, 327 dislikes
      Chris 47268 views, 1,097 likes, 839 dislikes
      Rylan has most red: 1,708 likes, 3,152 dislikes

      • DT

        Aye, looking at the previous week’s Chris was 2nd bottom too. He also doesn’t figure much in twitter analysis. Maybe a reflection of the age of his audience? Either that or he is just scraping through.

        Didn’t realise there were dislikes and likes. Are dislikes all that significant I wonder? Seeing as you can’t bring a particular act’s vote down (unless you call up everyone elses number!)

  • stoney

    Using the big market movers as my indicator for this weekend as planned, and jade elis at 8/1 is my fancy, 4/1 at bwin. As i said in the week there is always one bookmaker that has significantly lower odds than the other with regards to the act that is eventually being eliminated, which leads me to believe there is a leak and there hoping around different bookies each week to cash in on it

  • More than likely they just have took an opinion on the outcome. Rather than have info 😉

    If you are refering to any firm in particular thats shorter than the rest

  • Boki

    Dear sofabet team, what’s the feeling about saving Jade against MK1, Rylan, Kye ?

    My thoughts:
    Jade saved – Mk1 gone
    Jade – Rylan deadlock
    Jade – Kye no idea

    • Daniel

      Hi Boki, having been surprised by the save in last week’s singoff I am understandably feeling more cautious. Jade, MK1 and Kye were all treated as expendable last night. And of course, Rylan wasn’t given much help at all. A singoff involving Jade would leave me sitting on the fence I think, though I’d still be inclined to think Rylan would be saved…somehow.

  • Boki

    Yes, understandable, you’re my voice of reason. Last week didn’t kill us but I don’t have a feeling being stronger either 🙂

  • Lia

    I’m too confused this week. Really can’t say who might be bottom. I definitely wouldn’t mind getting rid of the overs since the 2 I kinda liked are already gone. Rylan could go as well. I don’t think he’s being entertaining and wouldn’t really be missed by the show the way he’s currently performing. But that’s just my preference, not indication of anything. I’m not even trying to guess anymore.

  • stoney

    jades odds to go continue to tumble, not much movement with the others, betfred now 4/1, i took 8/1 a few hours ago

  • Donald

    Didn’t get to watch yet, only catching up with comments, sounds intersting.. waiting for bottom two revealed.

  • eurovicious

    Given the current odds on Betfair, now’s the time to lay Maloney for bottom 2 for those who want to…

  • stoney

    rylan is now shortening right across the board, i still see the producers saving him against most of his likely sing off opponents, unless of course he isnt bottom of vote, then deadlock will decide

  • maccafan

    I’m confused too this week (and this series) with odd things happening. Perhaps XF ARE reading this thread and set out to foil us after bookie complaints to the for being too predictable ?

    I desperately want Rylan to go and had him down last week. I think he must have a large vote from the camp loving community though (he must have because he escaped bottom 2 last week).

    Chris DOES have the loyal Liverpool vote, which is always quite huge and kept 2 afloat last year right through to late stages and the final.

    My thoughts this week are that they have to throw a band overboard (Loui’s ) Therefore MK1 is my bet to go in a sing-off with Rylan. As I just put my bet on with SKYBET it also came in from 9/2 to 7/2.

  • JustBehindtheMark

    My problem is that we were watching it on sky+ 5 minutes behind without me realising it – so was just about to lay off rylan (back at 4.5) at about 2.8 when they suspended on me. so now I have to hope hes bottom 2 so I get a chance to save myself

  • Have a chunk on Kye to go here… Fingers crossed but I think MK1 are going to go in the vote 3-1

  • eurovicious

    Bets landed: lay of Chris B2, lay of District 3 bottom 2, and Kye B2 at great odds. 🙂

  • Tim B

    Had the bottom 2 combo, MK1 to go (and backed them again during the sing off), MK1 bottom 2 and a lay of District3 so could not be any happier how that went!

  • Curtis

    Heh, I’m starting to think that the right way to bet on X Factor this series is not to bet at all. Again I’m relieved that I didn’t bet any money because I would’ve lost a fair amount. The one thing I’m pleased about is that Rylan wasn’t in the bottom 2, as I know a lot of people sort of disagreed with me about his performance last night, but I didn’t think they were deramping him at all.

    But then there’s Chris…Chris, Chris, Chris. Maybe he is just winning the vote? Maybe his family are the only people actually voting in this competition? I’m struggling to find many other explanations. The idea that the Liverpool vote is strong enough to keep him in is just strange to me. I don’t think the Liverpool vote is all it’s cracked up to be – Craig and Marcus last year had other things going for them that allowed them to get as far as they did. But Chris, I just don’t see who’s keeping him in.

    • Curtis

      Also Jade wasn’t B2, more vindication for me.

    • jake Kl

      Didnt you read in the papers he was topping the votes? Also, u people like craig/rebecca who might have come off as abit boring were still getting through week by week. due to the liverpool votes. Add to that the mums and nans as well as the people who kept him in in wildcard vote and its obvious he gets all the votes all of a sudden

  • Jack

    I’m convinced now.

    Chris Maloney is winning the public vote. He is now the Alpha Over, imo. I wasn’t sure until tonight, but due to the stars pedigree with voting leaks, I believe it.

    Relieved for Jade, but I did say I thought her VT would see her safe. 🙂

    MK1 were the obvious ones to go v Kye, but I reckon they were unlucky.

    D3 and Rylan B2 next week, imo.

  • tpfkar

    Ouch! Called that totally wrong and unfortunately acted on my lousy tip from earlier-sorry if anyone else went in as well. Not as expected at all, I had MK1 doing better than last week, so clearly way off.

  • maccafan

    I spent 2 hours beach casting today for a nice fresh Fish for my supper and didn’t catch a sausage (whilst all around me were catching 3 pounder Sea Bass).
    Just copped a nice few quid on MK1 though, so sent out for a Chinese instead and got a nice bottle of plonk to go with it.

  • stoney

    my first profitable weekend on the next elimination market, backed mk1 in the week, but also backed jade today when her odds started plummeting. Gary barlow just said on the xtra factor that chris isnt anywhere near the bottom 2, could have been a slip up there, but seems to tie up with the voting leak, they are clearly trying to sabotage fakey now, so im starting to believe they may be true, and my tenner at 100/1 was well worth it.

  • Simon's Cuban Stacks

    Amazed neither Rylan nor Maloney in B2 tonight. Lost on the Cheese-meister and Jade to be eliminated but fortunately got it all back, plus a little extra, on backing mk1 to go and laying kye.

  • Queen Bea

    I think chris could go further than given credit for. If he’s getting the anti-vote support from people who think the show is crap and would like to see an embarrassment of a winner, added to his supposed Granny and Scouse vote, then they really are going to have to dampen doen his genuine support.

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