X Factor: Does the tour influence producers’ thinking?

We’ve noticed in the comments over the last couple of days several references to the part the tour may be playing in producers’ thinking for the early eliminations.

For instance, ringermark says “I think their only real early priority is now saving Rylan for the tour 8 (or 9 as they’ll stretch it if they have to.)” Nick Baker notes that “District 3 have very powerful and well known management”, and speculates “I have a feeling that TPTB have an agreement with the management that to get the boys on the show – they have to make the tour. Which is top 8”. Mick reckons “For the next 2 weeks you just need to work out who they’d rather not have on tour”.

We don’t tend to factor the tour into our elimination thinking. This post is to explain why, and to ask if we’re missing something – as well as briefly to round up a couple of recent rumours.

Historically, the tour has tended to consist of the top eight or nine acts from the live shows (we can’t remember exactly who was on the tour in each year, and this information isn’t immediately easy to find through Google). But as far as we’re aware – and we stand to be corrected – there’s nothing that commits them to this for the future.

When you look at the ticketing websites, on both The Ticket Factory (which you get when you click the tour link on the official X Factor website) and Ticketmaster, you’re told you’re buying a ticket to see “contestants performing classic songs and viewer’s favourites from the TV series”. On ents24, the wording is that the tour “features the finalists from the show, plus other memorable contestants”.

In other words, it doesn’t promise that you’re going to see “the top 8 in the vote” or “nobody who finished lower than 10th” or anything like that. We’re not aware of any pre-commitment along these lines on the official X Factor website, either. If this is the case, it’s surely no accident.

We work on the assumption that the only priority in choosing who goes on tour will be who’s going to sell the most tickets. As a general rule, you would think this would be the acts that finished higher up in the show – they’ve had more weeks of exposure and got more public votes, and there must be an overlap between the kind of people who vote and the kind of people who go to see the tour.

But what if one year this isn’t the case? What if one year they decide they’d sell more tour tickets by, say, including the act that finished 11th in the show and not the one that finished 8th? Is there anything to stop them doing that? We can’t think of anything.

In which case, it’d be a red herring to consider the tour in thinking about early eliminations. That’s our reasoning, but we recognise we may be missing something here – and if we are, we’d like to know about it. Please let us know in the comments below.

Now onto rounding up a couple of quick rumours:

Double elimination this week?

Eagle-eyed commenter Phil notes that the ITV website’s listings for this Sunday say: “Dermot O’Leary reveals the names of the acts that are through and those who are in the bottom three. Two acts have to fight for survival by singing to secure their place in the competition, as one act must leave.” Bottom three? Is this a typo, or are we in for a double elimination, with the bottom act departing and then a singoff between the second- and third-bottom?

We think that would be a mistake. For a start, it would complicate the task of Saving Private Rylan – they’d have to get him above three other acts, not just two, in the week he’s due to come down from his sympathy bounce. (And regarding Rylan, he and Lucy Spraggan were filmed rather the worse for wear, and reportedly kicked out of their posh hotel and banished to budget accommodation as a punishment. Plenty of raw material for this week’s VT, should the show wish to use it.)

Moreover, with 11 acts and 7 weeks left, losing one a week would leave them with four for the final weekend. If they want to have at least three acts in the final, then they’ve room to lose only an extra one. A double elimination this week would mean they have no cushion against losing an act outside of the remaining normal elimination process, as happened last year with Frankie Cocozza and was rumoured to have been on the verge of happening again when Craig Colton reportedly threatened to walk out in the week before he was hob-nobbled. Why take this risk with such a long way to go?

Then again, the fact that we think something is a mistake is no guarantee that it’s not going to happen. We thought it was ill-advised last year to bring back an act mid-series in the shape of Amelia Lily. Speaking of whom, could they possibly be thinking that in the event of a Cocozza-style mishap they could always draft in the runner-up in the wildcard vote, presumably Amy Mottram? For the sake of what remains of the show’s credibility we hope not, though the fact that Amy has been traded at high three-figure odds on Betfair tells us that someone thinks it’s not beyond the realms of imagination.

Do we still trust the Daily Star?

Commenter Rave is absolutely right – the Daily Star have form of being right with their voting leaks. Which makes this story, stating that Christopher Maloney “is topping the public vote by a large margin”, hard to dismiss completely out of hand, however unlikely it seems:

A show insider said: “Liverpool has clearly come out in force to back their man because we’re not sure who else is.

“He’s not particularly liked backstage because he’s a diva and thinks he’s the star of the show.

“And let’s face it, he’s not that great when he gets out on stage either.

“Most people reckon his nerves are a complete act too because it’s funny how he’s shaking one minute and then suddenly he’s fine.”

Give that Shakey got the full-bore cheese-and-cruiseship treatment on Saturday night, it would be alarming to say the least for producers if he topped the vote by a large margin. Are we in for another Janet Devlin-style Pamplona bull run, with more knives being tossed in week after week before the erstwhile frontrunner is finally brought to ground around week 8?

Or are the Star simply being used to disseminate a bit of strategic disinformation ahead of a hoped-for exit for Shakey this week or next? Eurovicious summed up both points of view in one post. With all due respect to the Star – and the release of voting figures at the end of the series will tell us if we were right to doubt them this time – we lean towards the latter too.

As ever, please continue to post your news, thoughts and theories in the Sofabet comments below.

79 comments to X Factor: Does the tour influence producers’ thinking?

  • Nugg

    Totally agree Andrew,
    They can take whoever they wany on the tour, and I have no doubt that if an early departing act would work well on the tour they would be happy enough to add them on. Having been to the last two tours I do recall that it was, I think, the top 8 or 9 that were there, but like you say nothing to say that will continue. The likelyhood is that they would like to get the final 8 on they want on the tour, but it is not to be relied on too heavily.
    I too was surprised to read that THE STAR reports Shakey as topping votes, they do have a good track record on this, I just cannot bring myself to beleive though. He undoubtedly has a following from some of the older generation and benefits from a regional vote, but I just cannot see more people picking up the phones for him than the likes of Ella or Union J.
    A double elimination would not actually surprise me too much this week, so long as they are sure of no walk outs then they DO actually need top perform a double elimination to get the numbers right for the final which takes place a week early this year….so why not this week. I would have thought though it would have been officially announced by now if they were going to do it though to grab some press coverage.
    No punting for me for now, having a break after last weeks disaster 🙁

  • jake Kl

    There’s a difference between Frankie and Rylan. One was in it for the girls and literally couldnt care less if he stayed or left the competition, thus not having any real goal on the show. Rylan, on the other hand has said afew times how he wanted to entertain people and be a good performer so having him leave outside of the elimination process would be unlikely. And obviousely, the producers would do anything to keep the other serious contestants in (like Craig) otherwise we’d have a real X factor crisis.
    About the bottom 3 this weekend, i’ll have to say its likely to happen. Mainly b/c like u mentioned Andrew, it would leave them with 4 acts in the final, the only time that happening was in 2010 but we didnt start off with 16 acts this year, so unlikely. Also andrew u mentioned how they’ll b trying to keep Rylan outside of the bottom3 but whats the problem with him being in the bottom3( aside from bottom of the 3)? the bottom would leave, leaving a bottom 2 where Rylan would be most probably saved. Kitty was in the bottom2 on wk3, had a sympathy bounce on wk4 and came down from it on wk5, a double elimination week where she was still saved.
    Also, about Chris topping the votes, its entirely possible. Week1 would b understandable with him doing an ”Amelia Lily” coming back from a wildcard vote and this week him being 2nd to perform after Jahmene meaning a great position to gain votes. It would surely explain his ‘diva’ behaviour backstage

  • Tim B

    In 2010 they took Aiden on the tour despite not finishing in the top 8 or so. And last year I’m pretty sure they took The Risk, so I’m with Andrew in that the tour isn’t something to keep in mind when making elimination bets.

  • Lia

    I remember the Daily Star saying the same thing about Wagner but when the voting figures were released he had always just avoided the bottom. This is just strategy, so I also go with the latter,

  • Lia

    The tour line up is only confirmed around top 7. Both Aiden and The Risk finished 9th, so an easy addition to the tour (oh, we’ve just decided to add one more) as it’s implicit the top 8 are in. So although they could add whoever they wanted, they try to “play by the rules”

  • Nugg

    I do not remember seeing THE RISK on tour last year, though I am open to correction as I was very drunk at the time …lol

  • eurovicious

    Completely off-topic: does anyone know whether there are any betting markets for Junior Eurovision?

  • NUgg

    No there isn’t , i was previously asked to go out to Yereven and do one for an Armenian sports book , but that fell through due to other commitments.
    No bookmakers normally bet on it.

  • lolhart

    Although I think it’s typical X-Factor trying to play the media (and the public), it’s not so outside the realms of possibility that Shakey is topping the vote. A couple of posters have mentioned that people seem to be getting wise to the mechanics of the show. So maybe the knives being visibly thrown has rallied his supporters to vote for him. A similar thing seemed to happen with Paige in the year that Matt Cardle won, as Simon’s attacks seemed to have the opposite effect. I think it’s easier to play the public when the contestant messes up their vocal (see Sammi and Sophie last year). I do think it’s unlikely Shakey is doing that well, but maybe he’s doing well enough to spook the producers into planting this story.

  • Henry VIII

    My vote is for the tour being irrelevant as they take who they want.

    Daily Star used to get good info but recently it’s written a lot of rubbish about various reality shows.

  • Nugg

    Hi Henry,
    I work freelance on specials markets for Eastern European Companies occasionally, also do in-running football for them when I can. For my main job I manage an online bingo and casino games website.

  • stoney

    interesting to see the markets on fakey shakey winning havent moved since this voting leak came out, still available at 100/1

  • Cath

    I agree with Andrew. The tour shouldn’t take priority over what is best for the show or post-show careers – they’ll take whoever they want, which will tend towards those that progress the furthest.

    On a different topic, what are everyone’s thoughts at this stage about the likely evictee this weekend? I’m feeling very torn at the moment:
    Chris – lots of producer attacks aimed at him, but would they want first 3 acts out to be from the same mentor? Also scouse vote seems to be working for him.
    GMTV – should bounce this week
    Rylan – top priority to have producer favour and should be saved even if hits B2
    MK1 – I’ve not been impressed with their performances so far, but aimed at the younger market who I would expect to be the ones voting the most. I also think that they are currently favoured over GMTV.
    Kye – seems to be getting worse every week and seems expendable, but same reason as Chris, would they want Gary to lose another act already?
    Jade – favourable VTs to date and in my view one of the most talented singers, should get similar support to that seen by Rebecca so worth a few more weeks I think
    Union J/Jahmene/Lucy/Ella/James – all seem v. safe at this stage, even if they were to shockingly hit B2

    I think I’m seeing as MK1 or Kye as most likely but would like to hear other people’s views.

    • MK1 go for me, reasons posted in past Sofabet Articles.
      Also backed Jade/Lucy bottom 2.

      Kye/Chris/Rylan safe for Barlow and Entertainment purposes
      D3 should bounce however a danger.

      Leaves above 3

  • jake Kl

    Id say Union J/Ella/James are deff safe (for a few weeks at least).
    Jahmene- i think he’s not doing as well as we think he is. He was 1st to perform this week (I call it the new pimp slot) which makes me wonder that he might’ve not got as many votes as the producers hoped last week. Still, hes got a bigger fanbase than some acts. SAFE.
    Rylan- Hes got SOME support as we saw this week. Depending on his slot/song choice/performance this week, his place will b around the lower half,bottom 4 maybe bottom 3. SAFE with good performance.
    Jade- Deff my fave contestant and the dark horse of the competition. she’s been under the radar compared to the others and one thing scares me is if its ”good under the radar” (Alexandra Burke) or ”bad UTR” (Rachel Adedeji). Having said that she’s been getting more and more support since the start of the live shows. should be SAFE.
    Lucy- what ive learnt from X factor is: bad comments from the judges= an increase in votes(usually). bad publicity during the week= decrease in votes. And Lucy’s been getting alot of negativity this with her 1)getting drunk 2)getting drunk with RYLAN 3)getting thrown out of the hotel 4)not caring about it. i’d say all this will deff have an impact this week but will it get her to the bottom 2, all depends on her fanbase. in DANGER
    MK1- im guessing the votes have been going down for them from wk1 to wk2 and not having a great fanbase from the start should get them in trouble. in DANGER
    District 3- sympathy bounce this week deff. SAFE.
    Chris- Big fanbase and will take some time to bring him down. SAFE.
    Kye- Must have a lot of fans since 2 bad slots and 1 bad week overall, and he’s still surviving the public vote and the prefered over this year. Everything depends on his slot/performance this weekend. more/less SAFE.
    Bottom2: MK1/Lucy. Bottom 3: MK1/Lucy/Kye

    • Cath

      Thanks @jake Kl, your reasoning makes a lot of sense. With Lucy being quite a unique performer in the realms of XFactor, I’m inclined to think that she’ll have enough support to still be safe at this stage, even given her shenanigans – could be wrong though! MK1 do seem to have the least reasons to believe they’ll stay, particularly with last week’s performance possibly alienating any ‘urban’ support they had – they’re now neither one thing nor the other.

    • Although I dont think Kye will make it past another 3 weeks. Kye is safe this week. People are assuming he is bottom 3/4 contender, on the basis of last weeks negative comments from Judges.

      This was staged and planned. The only reason he got negative comments was so that he would lose votes, and with Rylan following him two slots later, it allowed Rylan to pick up Kyes lost votes. Saving Rylan 🙂 With no danger to Kye because they knew he had polled high enough in Week One, so they could de-ramp to give away some votes and still be safe. Without losing face on a credible winner. (Winner being something they dont see Kye, falling under)

      • jake Kl

        I dont get it, why would the producers take away Kye’s votes and give them to Rylan? wasn’t Rylan gonna have sympathy votes anyway after his bottom2??

  • jake Kl

    No problem Cath. Don’t forget that eventhough lucy’s unique, the producers might think she’s a one trick pony(Like Janet) and might get rid of her. Also didnt mention news about MK1’s charlie being topless before entering X factor, which kinda destroys their image of the cute/urban band and a pretty big part of their target audience, the kids.

  • Cute/Urban Band? No such thing. If she has Urban fans, they wont be lost because she posed Topless, baring in mind she wasnt topless she revealed nothing really. Google it you can see these pics are over-exagerrated. However they lost alot of votes last week when having their performanced repeatedly referred to as “glee” a bad word amongst Urban fans. Removing plenty.

    Problem with Lucy is, her best performance was in the Audition, she peaked way way too early and will appear on the decline ever since. Losing votes at every performance, she is also vulnerable in a theme that doesnt suit. However bottom 2 safer bet instead of next to go.

    I still think most likely act to go is MK1. Struggling to see who else iis better suited.

    Backed Lucy/Jade bottom 2 in singles also. 13/2 and 9/1

    • Nugg

      RE – Lucy peaking too early in her audition, I agree and I don’t think anyone now has her down as a serious contender to win this years show, more intersting though, the same could be said about Ella, her best performance, for me anyway, remains her original audition.
      Where as an act like UNION J or Jade, has the potential to improve week on week. This could be where the EW value lies.

      • jake Kl

        Fair points about Lucy.
        When i said cute/urban i meant that MK1’s style is urban but since they entered the live shows , they made them out to be all glee and cute (especially jackson5 song) and the age gap for this is usually 10-15. Now seeing her topless (whether we see anything or not) will take away some of that audience.

  • Nugg

    A useful set of stats, not sure if it has already been posted but nice to have all the numbers in one place.

    http://bettingbias.com/news/x-factor/x-factor-social-media-charts-week-1

  • I wonder who this year’s “good ship” will be this year, much like Marcus last year. Surviving almost every week despite producer attempts to nobble him.

    Another thing that’s interesting to note is that while Ella is being pimped to no end, I wonder if producers will try to nobble her one week to test how big her fanbase is, much like when they nobbled Cher on the Beatles week with the “stairgate” diversionary tactics in the comments (which at the time I didn’t understand since they were trying to ramp her up as a future star)

    • Nugg

      The sole purpose of the show last year was ensuring Littlemix were victorious, I do not think Ella has the same unconditional and determined support of the whole XF production team as LM did, and remember LM remained a bigger price than the current Ella price right upto the final days. For these reasons I feel Ella is poor value at the current odds, though I am not suggesting they will want to nobble her out of the competition, I do feel,at the very least, if she is polling well clear in the phone vote that the producers will use their usual techniques to dampen her votes and pimp up some alternatives.

    • Stephen I was thinking this earlier, looking at a couple of larger prices and tried to make a case for anyway.

      Believe it or not, I think could make a speculative case for Chris at 80/1 e/w. Although I DONT think he can possibly win.

      Im of the belief that Gary will have an act in the Semi Finals, so comparing Chris to Kye. Kye is more forgettable for me and hasnt picked up a fanbase that was hoped when I backed him after the 2nd week at 10/1 :(.

      Chris on the other hand, survived last weeks clear attempt to get rid of him, has some fans due to wildcard, has a regaional vote? (Although I wont press on this too much yet, because I know Liverpool havent jumped on board yet) All it takes is TPTB to switch horses for Gary, which they may do when they realise Chris has a fan base and its hard to get rid of him, is to get any judge to highlight his “story”, how he has come from a shaking bag of nerves who was rejected at judges houses etc etc. A true “Under-dog”

      UK loves an Under-Dog story, if they run with that he could easily make the price of 12/1 for him to be top 3 a nice bet. Coming up to the semi final if he is still in, will have a nice opportunity to lay off.

      Just speculative of course, but not unlikely. (I’ve also looked at the price of 2/1 for him to beatKye, but if going for something which is speculative I’d rather take the 12/1 for him to be in the top 3 and trade off later)

      • jake Kl

        @JScouser Chris will never be the underdog, He’s had too much negativity around him to be favoured as a winner, even with a big fanbase from wildcard and all. Also, Kye might be more forgettable than Chris but he’s more favoured by the producers imo and while the producers will try to dampen his support every week, i think they’ll b doing the opposite with kye, mainly b/c as Garys last act theyd rather have Kye who could be put down more easily

        • I agree he has too much negativity around him to be favoured as a winner.

          However there is a difference between winning and being placed. i wasnt suggesting he wins I was suggesting the each way value is a bit big. When all it takes is TPTB to swtich horses for the overs.

          Just speculation.

      • stoney

        couldnt help but have a sneaky tenner on fakey shakey at boylesports 100/1

  • Nicky

    I’m really not sure what to make of the Fakey Shakey situation. I avoided losses last week on him because I had a very weird dream/nightmare thingy where he was doing better than expected. Then KaraokeSauron posted something to this effect and the Daily Star article appeared! I would have shared my insight, but felt it had no place on a site based on rational analysis! However, while he might be polling quite well, it’s hard to believe Maloney is topping the vote, especially with Ella completely dominating all the available polls.

    In your previous article, ‘Assessing the Melanie Masson – District 3 fallout’, theory no.3, and the views quoted by Panos, accorded with my own at the time. However, theory no.5, ‘They did it to annoy us’, might not be that far fetched. I sense that TPTB are aware of sites like this and have tried to be a bit less obvious this year. They seem to have done a fairly decent job of plugging any leaks (eg, Judges spoilers), they’ve mixed things up with the sing offs and opened the phone lines earlier, creating some unpredictability. They must also be aware that the Star have previously published accurate voting leaks which therefore get taken with a bigger pinch of salt than if another rag had disclosed them. With this in mind, it would not surprise me if the Shakey story is deliberate disinformation.

    I still think Shakey’s doing better than they’re comfortable with though. How else to explain such aggressive, vitriolic tactics? It’s very reminiscent of when Johnny scared the bejebus out of them last year resulting in character assassination by media and finally a double elimination to ensure his removal.

  • Nicky

    Smaller pinch of salt. FFS!

  • Shoulders

    Here’s a thought, will the sympathy bounce work if the act that was in the bottom two is put on last to sing this week. It will be interesting to see who gets the new death slot at the end of the show?
    Incidentally the show finishes 15 mins earlier this week, maybe if there is a double elimination it’s to get the show to finish even earlier next week, in an effort to keep as many viewers watching till the end ??

  • Highlighted

    Off topic, but I really think James Arthur is the value bet now. Ella is big fave for sure and deserved to be but 2 weeks in a row Louis has said he’s defo got a contract after this and 2 weeks in a row Tulisa has called him the best boy by far. Easily alpha male anyway and top boy is the bet to be on.

    I think Chris has been polling high but he’s not a threat to win it. As I said after week 1 though, Chris will not be gone at week 2 because his support was so high. He could easily be the alpha over in the end but exit around week 6 or so.

    • jake Kl

      Right on point with James and Chris. James is most probably the producers fave right now. Alpha girl is much harder for me, between Jade and Ella. They’ve both been getting good comments from the judges and Ella’s pattern is slowly resembling Joe Mcelderry’s in 2009 but are they gonna start de-ramping her from wk3-4 on or is she gonna stay the producers fave till the final

  • Alen

    I think that Christopher topping the votes article only came up so his fans think he is safe enough and don’t have to vote that much.

    Plus there is another “Chris is faking and a diva backstage”-article going around:

    http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor/111869-xfactor-2012-chris-maloney-faking-nerves-say-former-colleagues.html

    I think right now it’s all about saving private rylan and ditching shaky maloney

  • The main aim of producers last week was making sure Rylan avoided bottom 2 (think most agree that on here)

    So basically he needed more votes than last week. If they knew Kye was clear enough away from Bottom 2 in week one. If they know he is high enough in votes, he can afford to lose some without falling into the bottom 2 in week one.

    He is an easy target for them to de-ramp him. Knowing that he will lose some viewers votes, with Rylan yet to be shown, Rylan was likely to win a lot of those votes. Enhancing Rylans chance to stay out of the bottom 2.

    Unless someone can tell me how this doesnt make sense? With the lines open from the start its also a consideration in that has to be taken. I am sure that if they had praised Kye, he would have got more votes then if they didnt praise him. Which they didnt this week.

    • JakeKL this was a response to your post earlier mate 🙂

      • jake Kl

        kl 😉 i think don’t get it though, Rylans bound to have enough votes to avoid the bottom2 with his sympathy bounce, no? Does he really need Kyes votes? Unless they want Rylan to be in the finals which i really doubt, the producers main aim for Rylan would b to give votes but ONLY just to avoid the bottom 2

        • Yep, I am not saying once Rylan picked up the extra votes, they are his until the final. I just meant this week.

          Who knows if a sympathy bounce would have been enough? But they HAVE to be sure and do the best they can to make sure he has enough votes and stays.

  • Kevin O Reilly

    After the first two weeks I am struggling to be confident about anything! An awful shame but I wonder are others feeling the same? Got on the producers apparent desired elimination at good odds now twice but no return, both being favourite come show time on Sunday. BTW Genuine commiserations to anyone who got burned on the sing off last Sunday. For what it is worth I thought Kye was so awful last week that he may be in danger of bottom 2. What the producers do with the B2 do we know anymore?

  • tpfkar

    Unusually there’s lots I disagree with in the comments thread. Are we getting carried away with looking for patterns based on only 2 weeks of evidence?

    Everyone is now switching to saying early slot = good, late = bad, and before Rylan = bad. Much too early to say, and producers intentions have appeared clear both weeks. 2 counterthoughts –
    1) Producers have got lazy and just assumed that sending someone out early with lukewarm comments will be enough. The incompetent assassins.
    2) The general public are wising up to how the show works, and acts are getting a ‘pre-sympathy’ bounce. So on Saturday Chris fans could see what was going on and were extra-motivated to pick up the phone (tying 1 and 2 together, why on earth did they mention Liverpool twice?)

    I don’t think they really wanted either Carolynne or Melanie in the bottom 2, but both had been flagged for early exits here beforehand, they faced a uniquely tough challenge to get the votes in.

    I don’t believe Chris topping the polling; the article looks like a big dump on Chris rather than a leak, and he would be my best guess for elimination this weekend.

    • Regarding running order, but is it only 2 weeks of evidence? I think its more over 8 series and 2 weeks of evidence.

      In 8 series of X Factor the bottom two in the first week has contained two of the first 4 acts.

      In 8 series of X Factor the act in the Pimp Slot has never even been in the bottom 2. (Aside finals obviously)

      In the first two weeks of this year the act last on has finished bottom of the votes (Melanie) and the act finished second to last finished in the bottom of the votes the week before (Carolynne). Its hard to say that this isnt significant, without even mentioning the fact that none of the acts in the first 5 has been in the bottom two.

      I dont think this means thats its as much as a big of a deal where you are on the show. I just think its alot more equal now.

      As already mentioned I think it matters more what acts are around you, since voters are voting now immediatly, if you have just voted for your favourite then someone comes on next and you thought it was really good, even better than your favourite. Are you going to vote again? Alot of people would rather not.

      If your about to vote for someone who was really good, but then when your about to vote Dermot says next we have X. And X is your favourite, your probably going to wait.

      I think thats what will be confirmed over the next few weeks. The above stats of running order are too significant to ignore.

      • “In 8 series of X Factor the bottom two in the first week has contained two of the first 4 acts.”

        I would guess if you look further into each series, it wont just be the first week either. It would be the majority of acts in the bottom two have come from the first 3, hence how we always KNEW how significant the running order was. Now…? It appears if your on early there isnt a disadvantage

  • ringermark

    The thing with a bottom three is that whoever’s last just gets axed like that cute Italian boy a few years back. Have TPTB swung enough people yet towards voting Rylan that there’s zero risk from this strategy. I really wouldn’t think so.

    Maybe they think they can take out Shakey and D3 by doing that though? I think this weekend is the most up in the air the betting’s ever been and I won’t be touching it til we know whether it’s 2 or 3 and who’s where in the RO.

    Comparing Rylan to Wagner is risky. Wagner, by age, background and operatic musicality was the antithesis of X factor type TV for those of us not taking it seriously.

    Rylan however, who is actually beautiful regardless of his behaviour, seems to be the personification of modern TV, like someone simply transferred in from TOWIE. There’ll never be much of an anti x-factor vote that goes to him.

    Re the tour, as yet, notwithstanding any available legal flexibilities and disclaimers, nobody has performed on it without ending in the top 9 (I think.)

    The tour makes money, it is one of the big milestone vibes around the x factor year, so they’ll all be chatting about it and the criteria for getting on it. Also other agencies have an input into it so it’s easier to select the cast by results.

  • Steven

    On another forum I go to, someone had this to say:

    “I managed to stumble across Union J in Top Man yesterday.

    I thought boybands were supposed to create hysterical female fans? All I saw was about 20 girls vacantly staring into their mobiles looking a bit bored.

    One member (the one who’s ususally on the left I think) came out of personal shopping and said “I’ll chat with you in a minute guys”. The supposed screaming fans just looked up from their phones, shrugged and said “OK”.”

    Anecdotes are worth about what you pay for them, but I figured some here may be interested.

  • stoney

    you only have to look at their twitter following and hear their reception when their name is mentioned on the x factor to see that this story is highly debatable.

  • Off Topic.

    For anyone interested, Boylesports allow you to place multiples on Top Boy/Girl/Over/Group etc, you need to ring through and they will ring through and get trader to confirm first though.

    Incase anyone is interested.

  • Dug

    I haven’t read all the comments so this may well have been flagged already but if my memory serves me, the tour did not consist of consecutively placed acts last year. I remember noting at the the time that someone low placing was in at the expense of… I think… Sophie habibis.

  • nugg

    Am in VIP at Professor green gig tonight. Who should show up but Louis Walsh with district 3 and MK1 . Will try and grab a chat later.

  • Butterscotch

    So, what we saying? If you had to have your soul on somebody going out this week, who would you pick?

    Let’s cut to the quick guys.

  • Mech

    Well, in those specific circumstances I’d be going for MK1 loosing this week’s popularity contest, but that feels a lot like drawing conclusions from far too little data…
    Wednesday’s xkcd is rather too close to the bone for comfort in these matters… http://xkcd.com/1122/ – well worth considering!

  • Butterscotch

    Yeah, probably with you on that one, Euro, after the Glee comments last week. But please, for the love of god, can anybody tell me what the hell people see in that James Arthur!

    • jake Kl

      `Talent-wise or physicially? cos physically the kind he gets are muscular with tattoos so i wouldnt say its a positive thing. And talent-wise he has the power to transfer his emotions when he sings which is hard for normal people

    • I have been the biggest Pro James Arthur, on here. So I will happily list his positives 🙂

      First, in the auditions he had a long edit of over 9 minutes aswell as a story, aimed to get noticed and have fans from the begining. Got 4 standing ovationsat audition (which I point out ella didnt), if you watch his auditions at bootcamp etc the judges reactions towards him say it all.

      Writes his own songs and has already recorded about 6/7 (Check youtube for this)

      Plays the guitar

      Has sung a variety of songs and turned them into his style with success, (Tulisa Young & A Million Love Songs Later, more can be found on youtube)

      Only negative I hear people say when I ask, is doesnt have the pop star look? Is this a negative, would people prefer him to look like Leon Jackson/Matt Cardle/Steve Brookenstien/Shayne Ward. He is unique in appearance I am happy to see this as a postiive. Also before Ed Sheeran was signed up, he wouldnt have looked like your typical chart topper, now look at him.

      Does Syco have anyone else like that ont heir books? (Not that I could find)

      Anyone who follows me on twitter, will know I have put him up since week two at 25/1 + 33/1. I think him to be top boy at 6/5 is probably the bet of the series.

      Anyone care to share more negatives for James, before I keep following him in each week 🙂

  • Nicky

    It’s Friday, so time to check The Sun for stories from X Factor ‘sources’ to see how they’re trying to steer it this weekend.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/x_factor/4596834/rude-christopher-maloney-rapped-by-x-factor-execs.html

  • jake Kl

    He doesnt sing, he talks in his performances which for me is very important

  • AlisonR

    Nugg, thanks for sharing that website http://bettingbias.com/news/x-factor/x-factor-social-media-charts-week-1. Interesting – these stats were taken on 12th and for the Facebook stats, District 3 and Melanie were the bottom two. Then on the 13th, District 3 and Melanie are in the sing-off. Twitter and Utube don’t correlate. Today’s facebook stats indicate District 3, Jade and Kye will be in trouble.

    Getting problems posting again 🙁
    A lot of “The webpage cannot be found” when I try and submit a comment. Internet connection working fine otherwise.

    • Hi Alison, sorry about that… 🙁 don’t know what’s causing these problems with the comments, which seem to have happened since we upgraded to Jetpack, the new WordPress comments system. I’ll look into whether we can revert to the previous system without breaking anything (unfortunately none of us here at Sofabet are especially savvy on the tech side of things).

  • AlisonR

    Jade and Kye are both great value for next elimination. 20/1 and 17/2 respectively.

  • Mick

    I can’t honestlt see Gary losing 3 acts on the bounce, that’s why I’ll save CM for later. I’m going for MK1 based on their low twitter following and song choice lst week. Can’t believe they would have chosen a Jackson Five pop song themselves and it was the same song that started Janet Devlin’s downfall last year. Wouldn’t be suprised to see them at the tail end of the running order tonight.

  • Mick

    That should have reread song choice last week, not 1st week.

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