Celebrity Big Brother 2012 – A Coleen Sweep?

“And when the woman saw that the tree was good for food, and that it was pleasant to the eyes, and a tree to be desired to make one wise, she took of the fruit thereof, and did eat, and gave also unto her husband with her; and he did eat”
– Genesis 3:6

“If you look back in history
It’s a common double standard of society
The guy gets all the glory, the more he can score
While the girl can do the same and yet you call her a whore.”
– Christina Aguilera, Can’t Hold Us Down (2003)

For the first time this series, it feels like a bit of a no-brainer, at least in terms of who’s likely to be sticking around. Three housemates face the chop and only one may stay. And unless Danica is capable of some truly extraordinary voter manipulation this week (which isn’t technically out of the question), it looks like Coleen can walk it blindfolded.

This week, despite roars of “Get Danica out!”, Samantha failed to poll more votes than the doe-eyed rinser. Her name was met at points with considerable booing and not a single defiant cheer or whoop amidst the mob, as was the case with both glamour girls.

I’ve also noted that Samantha Brick, far from being a hilarious narcissist, is in fact just a traditionally-minded middle-class woman on a mission to set feminism back fifty years. Aside from citing her domestic accomplishments as the reason she should stay (we live in a post-Masterchef world. Everyone wants to cook!), she has taken every possible opportunity to judge, chide and slander her female housemates and to win favour with the men around her.

Starting to see the connection between the lovely person in the house and the journalist who wrote that article? I certainly am.

What about Danica, then? I think I like Danica, purely because she’s been given such a hard time for being an overtly sexual and flirtatious woman. She’s been perfectly vocal about the fact that she doesn’t want a relationship with any of her fellow housemates and about the fact that she has a boyfriend on the outside world. What the men of the house fail to understand is that it’s a game of “do as I say and not as I do,” as Danica continues to thrust her T&A rather vigorously towards any groin in a ten metre radius.

Coy and slightly manipulative, perhaps. But Prince Lorenzo and The Situation, absurd humans as they are, are quite capable of looking after themselves. Yet, much like Ashley with Rhian, they continue to pant like starving dogs at Danica’s ankles. On the flipside, when Rhian suggested to Brian Dowling that The Situation might be a bit of a playboy (and anyone who has watched more than five minutes of Jersey Shore will attest to his ‘charms’), Brian responded by whipping up the crowd with “We like a playboy!” – I despair at humanity.

So basically, the mollycoddling matriarch and part-time Nolan, Coleen, is in a very good position indeed. Not only has she survived the bottom two in a previous eviction, she has an established fan-base in the Loose Women audience and I’m sure her fellow panellists will be lobbying even harder this time around.

All of which means I tend to agree with Tim B’s verdict that we should probably be looking towards 5/4 Samantha-Danica in the double eviction straight forecast market offered by Ladbrokes, in preference to the generally odds-on prices for Samantha to be next evicted. (Danica-Samantha is on offer at 12/5 with Ladbrokes, compared to a best price of 7/4 Danica in the next eviction markets.)

Disagree? Let us know! There’s always room for surprises…

6 comments to Celebrity Big Brother 2012 – A Coleen Sweep?

  • Tim B

    In addition, I think there’s a strong chance Coleen will end up being Top Female. I kept changing my mind about placing this bet since the start of the series, but I finally placed it today. Assuming she survives this eviction, her only competition will literally be Julie. I get a sense that the public are turning against her – she’s proven to be manipulative and increasingly unpleasant. You can still get over 2.1 for Coleen top female at Bet 365, Coral and Boylesports.

  • I don’t follow CBB very closely but from what I’ve seen tonight your title says it all. I’ll be very surprised now if Coleen doesn’t win. CBB may be a little different from the civilian version because each of the performers have established fan bases, but from what I’ve observed in the past BB winners tend not to emerge from the fringes of the dynamics established in the house. The dominant group now is the Sorrentino-MC Harvey-Ashley (?) ‘posse’, but none of them are particularly likeable.

    Julie Goodyear (I would say) will almost certainly be the next to leave. Martin clearly doesn’t care… He radiates cool appeal, and is undoubtedly very good looking, but his obvious apathy as regards the final result mean he’s marginalised himself somewhat. The same goes for ‘the Prince’ (whoever he is), who is anyway a rather beige character, as Julian Clary pointed out in the diary room. And, unlike in previous series, this hasn’t been a good year for the camp contingent, and Julian looked very isolated today, reduced to bitching from the sidelines in his symbolic pink jumper with the relegated villain of the piece, Julie (aka ‘Nana’).

    Although I’ve only watched a couple of episodes, it was clear tonight that Coleen has the ability to straddle both factions, whilst remaining very markedly (and deliberately) neutral, or neutral-seeming. Being heterosexual and the last even vaguely eligible woman left, she won’t be repressed by the frat house atmosphere the boys have created; whilst her mumsiness and relative maturity means she can distance herself from them whenever necessary.

    I’ve just looked at the win market prices, and am quite surprised to see Julian at 5/4 in some places. He seemed the very obvious selection initially, and I for one would love to see him win, but on tonight’s evidence I would say that price looks a poor one. I think he’ll remain very muted until the hip hop hegemony is broken!

    Anyway… for what it’s worth… it’s Coleen for me at 3/1.

  • Tim B

    I absolutely agree. Julie should be first for the chop in tomorrow’s double eviction. She’s a troublemaker, pretty unpopular with the general public and the female in the mix up against two attractive guys. It doesn’t look good for her, and I think there’s good value in her price at just under evens.

    COLEEN NOLAN is my tip for the win. Julian is hot favourite but apart from the odd witty comment hasn’t made much of an impact. Ironically, I think he’s been too much of an Occasional Table to win. He does seem to be pretty popular though, and has been genuine, so I think he’s the second most likely winner. Martin is good looking and very relaxed, but again hasn’t made much of an impact and I think is trading far too short – I would put his chances closer to 10/1. Assuming he survives the eviction tomorrow, he’ll go into the final with some momentum but I don’t think it will nearly be enough. Coleen will be the last woman standing, and won’t be splitting the vote in the same way all of the guys will be. She is popular, went into the show with a considerable fanbase and has probably built on that. She has an everywoman quality, will have celebrities tweeting her support and may even be able to count on a plug from the Loose Women this Thursday or Friday. Most importantly, she hasn’t disappointed in the house and the vast majority of the voting public will be able to relate to her. I think there’s a lot of value in her current win price, and would recommend backing her if you haven’t already. Her only disadvantage is that Julian and The Situation have beaten her in a vote before, but she has definitely grown in popularity since then judging from polls and social media. I’d be interested to know if anyone agrees/disagrees with me on this.

    • Boki

      It seems that Coleen is drifting everywhere, something happened? I have a lot of faith in Tim’s advices is general and this time there is a also a split vote factor in the final so I believe there is something in Coleen for the win. Having said that, I have no clue about this show so again a small blind bet.

  • Good stuff. I too was surprised that Julie was not odds-on (or even favourite) to be evicted first tonight. I thought the same about the 4/6 available on Jasmine against Rhian for the first eviction; that was an excellent price for what was clearly a gimme. Anything from 1/6 to 1/10 would have been value.

    The key to BB betting, I think, is never to overestimate the sophistication of the audience. There’s nothing tactical or very smart about BB voting – it’s punitive, a principle which is elevated far above even entertainment (or else Jasmine Lennard would have won the show) – and with Julie the reigning villain of the piece, I predict she’ll be the first to leave tonight.

  • Tim B

    I don’t actually know, Boki :(. I can’t work it out – perhaps it’s just something to do with Julian’s odds shortening? I think he is too short and FAR from a certainty to win this.

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