Big Brother 2012 – Deana V Lydia

“Get Lydia out! Get Lydia out!” chanted the Great British Public during last week’s curry-chair-wank eviction. Sure enough, the pack descended and Lydia was nominated by just under half of the Big Brother housemates. It’s a wonder that she has managed to slip through these first few weeks considering her caniving ways. Benedict was shunned for spewing his reams of liquid ticker-tape uponst the frosted pane and Lauren was nommed because, well, nobody really seemed to like her. Somehow, like a well-lubed weasel on a slip ‘n’ slide, the devious Lydia went under the radar.

But no more! Whether the chant did it or the boys simply realised that Lydia was a bit of a dick, she went up. At the time of writing, Betfair has Lydia to go at 1.2 and Deana at 4.5 – that feels about fair. Unless the public decides that Lydia makes great TV and wants to keep her in to ruffle a few feathers.

In response to the Chris V Arron argument two weeks ago, commenter Tim B made some good points about the ‘Vote to Save’ system, suggesting that in a two-way nomination it effectively becomes the same as a ‘Vote to Evict’ – in the same way that backing heads and laying tails are effectively the same bet. I’m inclined to disagree. If the two systems were likely to yield the same set of results, there would have been no impetus to change the game in the first place. Furthermore, the psychology of voting  to do something hurtful  to someone (i.e. evict them) is very different from that of supporting someone (i.e. voting to save). Of course there will be a crossover but I can’t imagine as many people picking up the phone to vote for boring Deana in order to evict Lydia as would if given the chance to quite simply vote against Lydia. That’s not to say, in this particular case, as with Tim B’s example of Andrew Stone V Georgia Salpa, that the public won’t all vote for Deana in order to boot the future Mrs Scott-Lee. I think they will. But I don’t think we can count on that mindset on a weekly basis.

Another thing on Deana’s side is the sympathy vote. She hasn’t exactly been picked on by racist bullies in the way that Shilpa Shetty was but she has, as Big Brother pointed out to Arron, really struggled to make friends in the house. I normally try to take these shows with a pinch of salt and slag everyone off equally but I do feel some genuine sympathy for Deana. Perhaps it’s the sunshine, it’s not good for my cynicism.

Or perhaps it was that vile rant from Conor. Oh, Conor! I had such faith in you. I thought you were the lesser of three evils within your misogynistic, knob-swinging, territorially-pissing gang of twazzocks. I thought you were the dark horse in the competition. But no, you had to go and tell us all with great gusto how you wished to forcibly penetrate Deana with a spiked hairbrush and then punch her in the face. I’m quite shocked that you weren’t properly punished. That was disgusting. And all behind her well-composed, lonely back. Shame on you.

So Lydia looks set to go but what about the win market? Betfair has Luke A way out front for the first time in a while and that seems reasonable. Despite being a boring fucker, he has managed to avoid the controversies of the house and come off as a genuinely nice person, if a little wet. Strangely, Adam is still at shorter odds for ‘top male’ – can anyone explain this to me? And I really hope it doesn’t have anything to do with gender transitions as that would be truly offensive.

Caroline was riding high for a while, which I think was justified by the hilarity and energy she brings to the house. Alas, she has shown herself to be rather immature and bitchy but there’s something about her absolute gap-yah ditziness that seems to excuse her ignorance.  Arron’s cheeky charm seems to be winning people over bit by bit. Lauren’s getting shorter again after drifting way out for a while. She’s a lovely girl and she’s had a hard time but I’m not certain she isn’t a little too whiney for a winner. Adam has been consistently at short odds although I still doubt his chances. He’s managed to get away with an awful lot of chauvinist sleaze – too much by far – but then the British voting public don’t exactly have the best track record with being good feminists.

If there’s any value to be swept up in the win market, I’d be half –tempted to (very tentatively) suggest that it’s with Becky (currently 16 on Betfair). I’ve not missed an episode thus far and I’m intriguied as to why she’s slipped so far. Any suggestions from you, our great commenters, would be most welcome. To me, she still seems like the most likeable and genuine housemate. Although that utter pillock Luke S might be rubbing off on her somewhat.

Thoughts, hardened viewers?

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10 comments to Big Brother 2012 – Deana V Lydia

  • Tim B

    Hey Dug (and fellow BB fans), many thanks for the article. I mostly agree but I think you’re underselling Deana a bit. She has a lot more going for her IMO. As well as a significant sympathy vote (over 1000 people have complained to Ofcom) she’ll also pick up the Brummie/West Midlands vote (Big up the West Midlands! That’s where I’m from originally), the “nice” vote – not to be underestimated – and perhaps also an Asian vote. If you also look at some polls – Digital Spy, DS forums and Tellymix are the main ones, then they all show Deana to be on 65% in a vote to save. However I think these polls are somewhat distorted by hardcore BB fans, who are more likely to vote to save Lydia for entertainment value/shit-stirring value. In reality I think the vote will be more like 80% to save Deana. As we saw last week with Benedict vs Lauren, the voters aren’t concerned with keeping in the most entertaining characters, they are much more bothered about getting rid of people who are “hated”, and I believe Lydia might be the most despised contestant since Andrew Stone. This is the first eviction of the series which is incredibly obvious to predict, and I have backed Lydia to go with a substantial 3-figure stake at odds of 1.44 and 1.40. Fingers crossed, eh? 😉

  • Henry VIII

    Good to see BB articles Dug.

    You can’t read anything into the Betfair Top Male market – Adam is only shorter because of the £2 on LukeA at 3.4. Only £175 matched, it’s the kind of market people put something up and then forget about it because nothing ever happens.

    I haven’t noticed Adam’s “chauvinist sleaze”. Unless I’ve missed something only Lydia and Caroline have complained (Shev complained about a joke) and they didn’t seem to be complaining about anything much. Plus, those 2 girls are the most likely to make a mountain out of a molehill anyway.

    • Dug

      Hey Henry, thanks for commenting. It isn’t just the £2 with Adam, he’s been consistently shorter than Luke A all week at different prices and (I believe but may be wrong) with some bookmakers. I didn’t think anything of it at first, assuming it was as you suggest.

      Watch Adam’s line of sight. He struggles to keep his eyes above the neck where women are concerned and he’s constantly making lecherous comments about their breasts. I’m not jumping on Caroline’s bandwagon, it was something I picked up on from the beginning. I don’t think he’s a chauvinist at heart but his way of talking to women makes me a little uncomfortable.

  • Tim B

    In terms of finding a winner, I agree that Becky has a great chance. I also think Arron might be a contender. Still a very long way to go though.

  • Andrew

    Afternoon all! I haven’t been watching BB so I know the characters only through these discussions, but I’m intrigued by this vote-to-save vs vote-to-evict question.

    I’m inclined to agree with you, Dug, that although logically equivalent they might not be functionally equivalent. There’s a lot of evidence from psychology that you get different answers to logically equivalent questions depending on how you frame them, e.g. the Kahneman and Tversky epidemic example
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_(social_sciences)#Equivalency_versus_Emphasis:_Two_Predominant_Types_of_Frames_in_Media_Research

    It seems plausible to me that the same kind of effect might work in a BB vote. Like you, I can imagine that the “vote to evict Ms Polarising” frame might motivate some voters who are left unmoved by the “vote to save Ms Anodyne” frame, whereas the shit-stirrer vote might be more consistent between the two. It might be only a small effect, but in a tight vote it could be significant.

    And as you say, Dug, there must have been some reason for changing it – and the logical one is to give Ms Polarising a boost. If this speculation is right, then the vote-to-save format might lead to reduced phone vote revenue, which implies that it must have been a compelling reason.

    On the other hand, it occurs to me that negative political campaigning – which effectively creates a “vote to evict” frame for an election – has been found to lower voter turnout. But perhaps the dynamics are different here because voting for the better candidate in a political election is seen as a civic duty more than it is in BB.

    Interesting!

  • Tim B

    Lydia was evicted – hooray! Yet another example of Vote To Save having exactly the same result as Vote To Evict in a standard two way eviction.

  • eurovicious

    Thanks for this piece.

    “caniving” -> “conniving” (Sorry…)

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