Eurovision 2012: Grand Final Specials Markets

Today I will write three posts, the first concentrating on some specials markets, the second on the top 10 market and the third on the win market. Regular readers will know that looking outside the traditionally most popular outright betting is often a more interesting hunting ground, as I indicated in one of my top ten tips articles for betting on Eurovision before the 2010 contest.

The top 10 market is one I have tended to concentrate on in the last few years. Betting that an act either finishes inside the top 10 on the final scoreboard or outside it doesn’t have to be an exact science. Whether the country finishes first to tenth, or below tenth, gives you the same result either way. It can also be a nice way of having an interest in songs that you wouldn’t go for to win or finish last.

But to begin with I will start from the bottom up with a look at that last place market.

The 2009 return of national juries in having 50% of the say in each country has made life harder for punters in some respects because their tastes are less easy to gage. There are only five members of each jury, so those people hold an inordinate amount of voting power. They tend to spread their points more widely than televoters too.

Since 2009, the countries finishing last have been Finland, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. Each have been bottom six in the jury vote and are relatively lacking in voting allies. Having watched the jury rehearsal last night here in Baku, there were two countries that stood out in terms of how disappointing their performance was. It would be a surprise to see them judged above the bottom six on that evidence alone. They are also relatively friendless.

They are France and the United Kingdom. Both were notably off-key for significant parts of their songs. Painfully so at times. At least Engelbert Humperdinck had some sympathetic staging for the UK. France’s Anggun has the distracting element of gymnastics going on around her from her backing dancers. The whole effect is as messy visually as it is vocally.

There are reasons for thinking that other acts that are ‘competing’ for last place are more likely to avoid that fate. Hungary’s ‘Sound of Our Hearts’ is actually a decent enough song that will admittedly get completely lost on the Eurovision stage tonight from number two in the running order. Hungary has to rely on a few minor voting allies (such as Serbia) and juries to raise it from the bottom, and I think that will be enough.

Elsewhere, Lithuania and Albania have allies and excellent performances in front of the juries last night to lift them. Because the song itself is rather weak, I’m not predicting great things for Malta like some, but with a good draw for the upbeat ‘This Is Our Night’ and a memorable performance to match, I don’t see Kurt Calleja in last place either. He delivered for the juries last night.

Others at 25/1 or under comprise Macedonia, Bosnia, Estonia and Moldova. Voting allies and strong performances from all last night mean they are unlikely last place candidates. So that leaves us with France at 7/2 with bwin or bet365. It’s not very patriotic of me to be backing the UK in this market, but there’s just too much value in the 25/1 with Boylesports.

There is an argument that there will be some sympathy for Engelbert based on his name and reputation. That will only get him so far based on his performance last night. Two other standout bets on a poor finish for the UK are 6/1 with Stan James on a finishing position in the bottom six, and 13/8 that the total score for ‘Love Will Set you Free’ will be under 89 points also with Stan James. That’s outstandingly good value.

26 comments to Eurovision 2012: Grand Final Specials Markets

  • Tim B

    Interesting piece. I definitely agree that Hungary is not destined for last place. It’s likely that the juries saved Hungary in the first semi final, and they’re likely to give them a fair few points again I’d say.

    I’ve taken those United Kingdom tips with Stan James. What incredible finds. Thank you!!!

  • David

    Germany to beat UK H2H @1.61 with WillHill represents excellent value imo.

  • Boki

    Nice finds indeed, pitty SJ limits me abnormally. There some combo options also on WillHill – UK finishing position market.

  • Daniel

    Hi guys, betting against the UK in match bets you can find (apart from against France), also seems a wise move.

  • justin

    Thanks Daniel – had already started opposing UK in (almost) any way possible but your advice adds to confidence!

    Coral go 8/13 fo Greece to beat UK. Greece should be bordering top 10 at worst.

    • Dayjur

      Didn’t notice that, thx for putting that up. They’re also 8/11 Spain to bt UK. Has the Stan James odds compiler lost the plot or something – shame my name is sh1t with them 🙁

  • Chris

    Another excellent article – thanks for all of your coverage, it really is a great read.

    I really like the look of Spain to get four or more maximums at 20/1 with Stan James. One hopefully in the bag from Portugal, then only three more to find. In two of the last four contests, four countries have received four or more maximums, so I feel this is a better way of getting with Spain than taking 4/1 or 5/1 on them to finish in the top four.

  • Dayjur

    Germany to beat France @ 1/4 with Paddy pays for tonight’s refreshments.. if you can get on with them that is…

  • Chewy wesker

    Germany have been tipped up in the racing post today (page 129) they have tip 3 points e/w germany 40/1 betvictor good luck getting money on with them. Also 2 points russia 13/2 betfred mind you they will ring up any bet over a fiver, 1 point e/w malta 150/1 ladbrokes. And the top ten finish moldova 9/4 betvictor boyle + france 14/1 boyle interesting.

  • DashBerlin

    Does anyone know if the order in which countries results come out?
    As in, getting a countries voting results, the order in which we watch them say “Moscow calling etc…”

    • eurovicious

      Please tell me you’re the actual Dash Berlin… 🙂

      Yes, I’d also love to know the order, wonder when it will be leaking out…

  • Tigerbright

    Was really tempted by the 20/1 for Spain having 4 or more max points, Chris, but it seems those odds have not fallen to 10/1 on StanJames! Still a little tempted…

  • Nick D

    I’ve resisted the temptation to be a blog link spammer over the fortnight, but to save me some time here’s my rough and ready forecast for the night’s results. Bear in mind that my credibility is shot to pieces after the Lithuania Won’t Qualify incident though! 🙂

  • Jamie

    There isn’t a running order for the results until they are in. The EBU want to build on the excitement of the voting so they make it look like there may be a different winner initially. I think last year was the first year they did this.

  • fiveleaves

    The UK does look way overpriced for bottom spot.
    Cue the annual ill informed debate on how everyone hates us if we are bottom, or in the bottom 3rd. Which looks highly likely after the jury performance.

    btw, Thanks for all of your excellent coverage Dan.

  • Donald

    Saw that 25/1 with Boylesports last night , was tempting. Did a few head to heads and no. of 12 points UK would receive also.

    There might be a gig to be had writing the Eurovision article in the Racing Post next year!

    Point taken re Top 10 market makes allot of sense Daniel. Enough of decent ew going on for the win anyway. Top 10 second semi- final was a good night. Boylesports got Ukraine price well wrong, lets hope they get few wrong tonight also.

  • Donald

    When voting order be known I wonder?

  • Toyboy

    I like 5/2 on Ireland pos 11-15 at WillHill, hedged with 5/2 on pos 6-10 at Ladbrokes.

    Have a little on Serbia Top3 at 9/5 too, to be sold after 10 first votes or so.

  • What are the odds that we send Sacha Baron Cohen as our Eurovision representative ? I think he would at least give the Europeans an idea of what we think of them ;-))))

  • alan

    To what extent has the commercial dance-orientated single pre-release of the Swedish entry in Scandinavian markets, buttressed subsequent Nordic voting and shown an effective routeway to mitigate the baleful influence of pan-Slavist sentiment in future competitions?

    • eurovicious

      “the baleful influence of pan-Slavist sentiment”??? In that case, explain to me why Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Belarus, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Croatia etc regularly do so badly.

    • Nick D

      I just feel that a question like that is incomplete without [25 marks] at the end of it.

      In short – not much. The important thing was that the song found an instant audience in all corners of the continent, not that it had had a lucky break in assuring the points that it was already likely to get anyway. The pre-release had little impact on that.

      • eurovicious

        Agree. Love the exam crack 😉 can’t give you full marks though because you didn’t use all of the page or show your working innit. 🙂

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