Eurovision 2012: Full Results

The official results of the final and semi-finals have just been published. Click on the link for more details.

Sweden won the final by a landslide; congratulations to Loreen. It’s an excellent result for the contest: ‘Euphoria’ looks likely to be a commerical hit. She beat the Russian Babushki and Serbia’s Zeljko Joksimovic in a top three that mirrored bookmakers’ lists on the day of the contest.

In the first semi-final, Russia beat Albania into second with Romania third. Hungary beat Switzerland by a point for the final qualification place. In the second semi-final, Sweden beat Serbia with Lithuania a surprise third. Norway’s Tooji tied for tenth with Bulgaria and got the last qualification place on countback.

I hope all our commenters managed a winning return; it was my most profitable contest yet, and for that you guys were invaluable. Hope to see you in Stockholm next year.

93 comments to Eurovision 2012: Full Results

  • Danzaa

    Great tips Daniel. £3500 won over this Eurovision, but I definitely didn’t agree with your Greece Top 4 tip though and glad I didn’t follow that one!

    However, congrats on yet another set of outstanding articles covering Eurovision. Keep up the good work.

    • Daniel

      Thanks for the kind words, Danzaa. As always, some things were called right, some were called completely wrong. It’s just a case of trying to go big on the ones that prove right. 🙂

  • Ben Cook

    I have lost a few quid but I so am happy Sweden won. I wish I hadn’t listened to the naysayers and just put a huge bet on her because I have loved Euphoria from the beginning. Well done Loreen. Amazing actually that the top 3 was just as the bookies predicted.

  • Rory

    Hi Daniel.what made u pick Greece?i did them big on Top 10 finish?can I ask you where did you make your money??

    • Daniel

      I made most money on Sweden’s victory which I backed heavily today, laying the UK in every conceivable way I could and betting against Cyprus in the Top 10. Greece is a lesson learnt for me. Cheap ethnopop is no longer enough.

      • Rory

        Very very good.do you mind me asking what sort of money did you make?also is this all you do for your yearly pay cheque?

      • Donald

        Thanks Daniel, right call in the end. My last bets were at 11/10 & 5/4. Great week,we did try find someone to beat her in fairness on here but wasn’t there. On the vino now!

        Enjoy the night,Oh God I love Jedward!

      • Cliff

        With the greatest of respects DanIel you didn’t do a great job of reportingng partiicularly when it came to the top market. I asked yesterday with odds of 7/1 Estonia (gladly I ignored your refusal to answer) and bet. Luckily I got Azerbaijan and Estonia tonight eith €5500 returns

  • Kateuro

    Azerbaijan 66/1 ew was my big payout. It does well to do some history

  • tpfkar

    So close with a couple of bets at good odds. UK last (25th out of 26th) Moldova top 10 (11th)

    And I couldn’t recover my early lay on Sweden to win, I backed Serbia and Azerbaijan in the win market when I should have gone top 5 with them grrrr..

    But my saving grace was the winner from Semi-Final 2 bet, which pretty much covered me on my losses elsewhere. Green, just, but so close to significant wins.

  • ross

    wow lithuania 3rd in the semi final !

  • Boki

    Hi Daniel,
    It’s a first time I followed your ESC coverage in full (last year I discovered it on the final day) and I’m speachless. Not only that you wrote so many good articles in a very systematic way but you also managed to find time and will to answer the majority of the questions from us (and on top of that you have to place your own bets). You really did an amazing and outstanding job, bravo.
    Btw there were not many tips today but that’s something I don’t expect from this site anyway, the analysis and discussions we all have here means much more to me.

    I had a best betting night ever and by far most profitable esc in total, I’m shocked how good it was. Got Ser,Tur,Ger,Ita,Azer in top10 and famous Cyp not in top10, also huge Tur vs Cyp came in. Actually only loss tonight was Gre vs Cyp. Lot of crazy stuff happened on the market during the show but that discussion I would like to postpone for few days, really tired now, goodnight to all.

  • Daniel.

    Many congrats. Could I ask a couple of questions.

    – What made you go heavy on Sweden today? What was the trigger, considering the odds were just racing in over the last three days?

    – I sensed a lot of confidence from you that Albania would “outperform” expectations. What were your reasons on that, because you got it spot on!

    Eurovision’s not my specialism, but got one or two things right over the week, that could just be luck though!

    • Daniel

      Hi Richard, many thanks and good questions. It was the jury dress rehearsal last night that did it for me. I remarked in a tweet that she ‘smashed’ it before the small hiccup, and I never usually use that tone. You know me, try to be balanced and cautious.

      It’s only when you see all the songs in the final together in their proper order after numerous rehearsals that you feel comfortable weighing them up against each other. It was clear when I did last night that there was one song that wowed far more than the rest.

      As for Albania, well I didn’t go so far as to tip it, so I can’t have been keen enough! It’s always worth thinking about what goes big in the east that western ears aren’t used to and Albania turned out to be a good example.

      • Donald

        keep them running, bed for me, no spam, nite, what time flight? amazing is my nice way or if he ever buys a pony should call him bigger balls….

  • Chewy wesker

    Well germany came late for a top ten spot and italy had it bagged around about half way through for the top ten place also my lay denmark for top ten was never in doubt. Germany match bet vs uk was also in the bag early on. All these bets covered may lossing outright bet on germany which was four figures. So a little rollercoster for me but slightly relieved. Anyway I’ll stick with just the top ten market and leave the outright market next year.

  • Martin F.

    It might go against the Bravado Rules of the comments threads here, but I’ll happily admit to having made a loss this year – albeit I’d have been 20%-ish to the good if I hadn’t chased Belgium so strongly in the first semi. The detailed results make me look even more foolish for doing so, but I really thought there was value in there. You live and learn!

    That late vote for Germany that pushed Roman above Italy/Spain was a godsend, mind you…

    • Donald

      I had Belgium early on also Martin and semi final so you not alone there.

      I am a win market person though for my main bet outside of that my best bet this year was Ukraine in the semi final and that was close enough when you see the results.

  • Henry VIII

    Congrats Daniel, I look forward to next year.

    I too laid the UK in every conceivable way. I dodged a bullet with Bulgaria, I’m amazed that she almost qualified. 8 of my 10 Top 10 positions paid off, I lost on Ukraine and Greece.

    Do you think the economic problems put people off voting for Greece? I get my news from the internet rather than TV, I selectively don’t bother with economic news and therefore I don’t know the general vibe regarding Greece and the Euro.

    • eurovicious

      Political and economic factors like that don’t affect how people vote. People (and juries) didn’t vote for it because it was paper-thin in a musically very strong final.

  • Tim B

    Brilliant night for me and my friends, with 2 of our each ways (Serbia and Azerbaijan) making the top 4.

    What happened to Romania though?! It had 13 million views on YouTube prior to the final and was performed well on the night, I thought. Also Greece’s flop was a massive surprise. Can’t wait to see the televote/jury splits.

    • tpfkar

      Well done Tim. Romania got what it deserved in my view – no-one I was watching with was impressed at all, and like Italy I was confident that the market hype was well ahead of the product.

      But…what happened to Norway and Denmark? I was expecting them around the left hand side of the scoreboard. We now know that they both limped through the semis, but was a real shock to see them so low, even with Tooji’s vocals. Any ideas?

    • Donald

      Congrats Tim, well called.

    • eurovicious

      Thought on this, Tim: I bet anything its millions of Youtube views are predominantly domestic, from Spain, and from Latin America, so had little correlation to its likely contest success.

  • stevo

    got to be honest, Norway coming last was a suprise to me, the way the semi looked i would never of guessed it nearly didnt qualify

    trackshittaz 18th, and the bookies nailed it all bang on this year

    happy for sweden but them getting so many 12’s after that snowflake incident seemed strange

  • justin

    Well done Daniel and thanks for all your enormous hard work this year. Biggest thanks for finding those markets which I had never come across so we could oppose the UK yesterday.

    It was the first time I followed the exchange market during the performances and I was amazed by the fluctuations in prices. For example Cyprus went third favourite outright at one stage and were long odds-on for top 10. Serbia’s top 10 price nearly doubled during the contest even though they performed flawlessly.

    My initial reaction was that there must have been a voting leak. But my conclusion was that it was just the weight of money from casual UK punters attracted to fan favourites like Cyprus and happy to lay the likes of Serbia.

    Would be interested to hear views on this.

    Anyway – great night and thanks again. Roll on X Factor!!

    • Daniel

      Hi Justin, you are entirely correct in believing it was all about casual UK punters being attracted to certain songs and not others during the show itself. The same thing happened last year: Hungary’s odds shortened a great deal and Bosnia’s Dino Merlin saw his top 10 price double.

  • SED

    Thanks for the analysis of the last months, Daniel. If it wasn’t for this website I would have made a considerable loss. But then again, I would have never started to bet on Eurovision without this site.
    Am I the only idiot who layed Estonia and Albania for Top 10?
    Looking at the Top 10, it seems to me that Euphoria hurt other Western European countries. Position 2 to 7 are from Eastern Europe. Norway and Denmark at the end of the table – did the Scandinavian countries suffer particularly because of Euphoria?

  • Boki

    Grand Final thoughts (part 1):

    1. Sweden
    So, she did a Rybak after all, brilliant victory.

    2. Russia
    Much less affected by the juries than we thought, too much public love and they didn’t want to be cruel to them?

    3. Serbia
    Poor Zeljko, he really wanted to win this time but picked the wrong year. Decent result though but with a kind draw.

    4. Azer
    Well done e/w backers! Never in doubt for top10 (crazy odds 2+ during the show) despite there was a shadow of doubt here if the host can suffer from less votes than usual. Not in this case apparently, if Safura managed to be 5th from slot 1 this shouldn’t do much worse and it didn’t.

    5. Albania
    6. Estonia
    There was a real possibility that one of those could be pushed by the juries but both so high? Amazing result from both, especially for Albania who was less visually friendly, lesson learned there. Also, there has to be some coniderable televote both got (unlike Austria last year). So, next year we can expect even more out of earth vocals in the competition.

    7. Turkey
    Nice result according to expectations.

    8. Germany
    He got a boost in the voting finish but that was visible from the order since lot of western countries were kept for later. I expected him a little higher but he didn’t deserve it anyway, he should be happy with this.

    9. Italy
    She was good (and just better than Spain 😉 ) but probably suffered from the running order. Also expected it a little higher but that seems to prove the theory of last year’s jury push due to comeback, this year more realistic.

    10. Spain deservedly top10, although I believe her televote was not so high – her styling (makeup, dress) could have been done better I think. Apparently Albania and Estonia made more impact from their draws which seems strange but that killer note from Pastora was not enough.

    11. Moldova
    Always on the edge of top10, still great for Pasha.

    12. Romania
    Usually underrated country that finishes much higher than expected. This year completely oposite, everyone tried to make-up for previous years and saw this one as a contender. As I said, I didn’t understand this entry and avoided it at all cost.

    13. Macedonia
    Great result from amazing Kaliopi, I was very wrong about this one.

    14. Lithuania
    Another great accomplishment from a great performer, this year was really about vocals.

    15. Ukraine
    This time they couldn’t succeed to sell half-a-song with the presentation despite the good vocals. I thought they would as almost always.

  • Boki

    Grand Final thoughts (part 2):

    16. Cyprus
    Oh la la. How to start with this one. One of the strangest things I have ever seen on ESC, was a scary experience because I didn’t understand what was happening and big liabilities of course. Ok, I get it, UK punters were attracted to it but why Cyprus and why on on the final day? The top10 price shortened to evens before she performed and later came to 1.5. Ivi performed as usual, just as many others and became a 3rd favorite to win the show with odds <20, madness. At the end it got 0 points from UK if I remember correctly.

    17. Greece
    Have to analize the voting tabels for this one, it also got 0 point from UK, right? That sounds very strange…

    18. – 24.
    Not much to say about these except didn't expect Denmark to be so shockingly low. MOR is no more?

    25. – 26.
    Almost the last place for UK, Tooji doing sooo bad is not what he deserves, really.

    All in all, decent amount of surprises as ever but without a shock like France last year. There is a big danger of drawing to many parallels to previous year(s) since Tooji wasn't Saade, Rona wasn't Nadine and so on.

    • David

      Well done, Boki!

      I’d like to get in touch with you for some further reflections on this – if interested, please shoot me a mail at nilegaard@mail.com!

      Cheers 🙂

    • eurovicious

      Good analysis Boki. I really agree with your comments on 1-15. I didn’t look at Betfair during the songs so it’s interesting to hear about the level of fluctuation, especially regarding Cyprus, which I’m sure got a boost from being the first upbeat song and the first song that sounded like a contemporary chart banger, thus a lot of casual punters who hadn’t seen the semis or studied the field backed it. This sort of situation obviously presents an opportunity for those of us in the know to take advantage of the change in odds and take casual punters’ money.

      Zeljko did really well and I think he can be pleased with himself. I was disappointed for Spain, it’s a great song and Pastora was stellar, I thought it blew Azerbaijan out of the water both song- and performance-wise. But I was very confident on Azerbaijan’s success as the only serious ex-USSR contender. With Drip Drop managing 5th from first in the running order in 2010, I was confident that When The Music Dies – as a similar yet superior song, better presented and performed by a strong vocalist – would do as well or better from 13th.

  • sonovox

    Many thanks for your outstanding coverage, Daniel, and it sounds like you did well to navigate so profitably through what I thought was quite a difficult year, and moreover one marked by quite a lot of savvy on the part of both punters and bookies. Did you think it was a tough year on the whole?

    I must say it makes things harder following from Aus – the markets are always still while I’m awake and moving while I’m asleep (not to mention the unavailability of Betfair’s in-play feature – do you know if there’s any way around that?). I was all set to channel the lot into various UK lays on Friday night my time, but I foolishly slept on it, and by the time I woke up you guys had all got stuck into it and there was little value left. Luckily I will be in Europe for the next one!

    As for results, I took quite the bath chasing Ukraine and Greece for top 10 – in hindsight I should really have shown the juries some more respect there. Luckily an each-way plus top 10 on Azerbaijan and a top-up following your Turkey tip mitigated those losses. What really stung though were my bets on Moldova for top 10, Greece for top 3 in SF1, and UK for last. Any one of those would have turned a small loss into a stonking profit, so being one off for all three made the voting nothing short of painful (particularly since it was pretty clear which way the wind was blowing after 5-10 countries).

    Cheers!

  • meridian_child

    Hi. This is my first comment on this site. My English is not the best, so please forgive me 😉

    For me, it was a good year (thanks to Sweden). It could have been a fabolous year if the juries punished Russia a little bit more (had Albania @65 as SF1 Winner, Azerbaijan @35 Top 3, much money on Serbia – Russia and so on). So, Russia really fucked me up, but i’m really happy Sweden won.

    In this year, there were some strange things I noticed and I would be pleased to hear the opinion of other people.
    I really can’t understand why Malta had odds of @40 half an our before SF2 (betfair market) – an hour before the finals they suddenly had @4,3. How the Hell odds changed so extremely??
    Another thing I can’t understand, why almost all odds raised to the moon directly after their performance. Like I said, almost all: Cyprus was suddenly on the 4th place in the odds (winner market). Was is that spectacular? Russia’s odds shortened to @4,x. I really don’t understand why so massive amounts on money were traded on Russia. How it comes people were so confident the juries wouldn’t punish it?

    For me it looks like some people seemed to have informations others din’t have. The market itself only gave Sweden and Russia Chances to win the Contest. So i’m really curious about the Split of Televote and Jury Results..

    • eurovicious

      Casual punters betting on final night (and who didn’t watch the semis) don’t think about the juries. The babushki got a huge amount of media coverage and had broad appeal as a heartwarming novelty act, so it’s understandable that people would jump on them.

      I was also surprised at the way the market changed after the songs had been performed (with the odds contracting on Sweden and Russia and lengthening on everything else) but I don’t know how this was in previous years so don’t have a frame of comparison. But I think casual betters seeing the songs for the first time simply leapt on Sweden and Russia as the standout entries.

  • Montell

    Daniel,
    What do you think about semi finals results leakage? Somehow after the semi finals odds for Iceland and Norway to be in TOP-10 have increase from approximately 2.00 to 3.80. Who possess information about semi finals results? Do you think results are kept in secret?

    • Daniel

      Hi Montell, I don’t personally think semi-final results were leaked in any way. The two you mentioned were very underwhelming in their heats. I was one of the people laying Iceland for Top 10 and pushing its price out at this point – and I was not aware of its semi score.

    • eurovicious

      Wiwibloggs published “leaked” results for both semifinals, but they’ve since been taken down. I’m not sure how accurate they were but I know they had Russia to win the first semi and Sweden to the second.

      • Popking

        They were not accurate at all. They had Greece 2nd, Cyprus 4th, Ireland in 9th in semi 1 and Serbia 3rd with Norway 5th in the 2nd semi.

        I don’t recall the rest but guessing Russia and Sweden was easy enough based on expectations I guess.

        Cheers for the updates as ever Daniel. I also did not do as well this year as last. It was mainly the win (and ew) market that scuppered me as I had a few fancies and none of them came off. On the top 10 market, and some other specials, I made most of my losses back…but not quite.

  • Panos

    Difficult year indeed, mainly due to the many good songs in my opinion. Thankfully, I managed to predict most of the top 10 correctly, except Norway/Romania Vs. Albania/Estonia, and made money on TOP10 Germany, Turkey, Serbia & Azerbaizan. However, funnily enough, I found it easier to make profit by laying, maybe because there were so many candidates for the top5/10 that it was easier to spot who won’t make it (I layed malta, cyprus & fyrom in the top10 and spain, ireland, greece & ukraine in the top4, at too generous prices). I think the way forward as the contest is evolving is to be more like Daniel, who I assume makes a big chunk of his profit by having a big bank and going for lower but more certain odds at huge stakes. Money was also waiting to be made at some obvious ‘specials’, like serbia top balkan and estonia top baltin at, again, wayyyy too generous prices! And I totally agree with Montell about the movement of Norway and Iceland’s top10 price after the semi’s. Very strange indeed.

  • Gavin

    Thought the songs in general this year were poor and Sweden was the only country that had EVERYTHING going for it.

    On a lighter note did anybody notice that when they showed the 3rd, 2nd and 1st during the show. They showed Sweden with 179 points and Serbia with 135 but with was before they went to the next country who then gave Serbia 10 points and Sweden 12 points. So it should have actually shown up as 167 and 125 points for Sweden and Serbia respectively before that vote.

  • fiveleaves

    Excellent work as always Dan.
    Not as good a year as the preious 2 here, but not far off.
    A decent enough win on Sweden, though most of my profit came thanks to the top 10 market.
    My only losing position was a lay of Italy.
    Cyprus I traded out of for a nice profit at odds on.
    There must have been some sweaty palms on here when her price dramatically shortened 😀
    I reckon it might have snuck a top 10 with a late draw, but that’s academic and well done to all of those who held their nerve.

    Estonia my biggest winner in the market. Closely followed by Albania. Also had Azer and laid Greece, Romania & Iceland.
    Just that damn Nina prevented me from having a full house.

    It certainly beats working for a living.

    • Boki

      I can assure you that it was much worse than sweaty palms 🙂
      You’ve also been lucky a little bit since that shortening was based on nothing and it could be that such thing never happen – at the end glad to hear you managed to trade out, makes us all happy.

      • fiveleaves

        I agree. The shortening didn’t appear to have a great deal of logic behind it.
        Which is why I took plenty of profit.
        The reports from the jury reherasal were positive and I did think it was one of the standout songs and performances of the 1st half, but it had to be a lay at odds on.

        That’s the beauty of betfair. You can have people taking polar opposite views on a song and it’s chances and yet both sides can make a nice profit on it.

    • eurovicious

      That’s great, sounds like you had a really good spread of bets. Albania, Estonia, Azerbaijan and Sweden were also my biggest winners.

  • Popking

    Didn’t work out as well for me this year as the last few. I backed too many also-rans in the win and top 4 market, and also the semis cost me badly.

    Semi 1 I laid Albania, Cyprus…and backed Belgium. Had Greece as a banker for top 3 and they missed out by 4pts.

    Semi 2 I backed Georgia, chanced Serbia for the win and had Estonia for top 3, again they missed out by 4pts.

    In the top 10 market I did great with value backs on Azerbaijan, Germany, Spain, Estonia, Turkey and lays of Denmark, Iceland, Cyprus. I only misfired on Ireland, Norway, Romania, Italy.

    I got a bit lucky too with Germany/Spain to beat Italy to Top Big 5.

    Must do better next year though.

    • eurovicious

      You seriously laid Albania (despite it being in a semi with Greece, Montenegro, Switzerland and Austria and having a v jury-friendly song) and backed Georgia? I have your money now 😛

  • Boki

    Some random semi-final thoughts:

    – Scandi-block was mentioned many times as very strong this year, yet almost all failed already in the semi. Was Soluna so boring is her poor semi? Was Tooji compared to Saade and rated as his poor copy? His 10th place with such draw is a mistery.

    – Greece got more points than Cyprus in the semi and in the final, where normally full support should make the gap wider, lost the
    duel ending on 17th place, strange…

    – I had a small bet on Pasha for top3 in his semi due to the fun song and draw but that didn’t happen. Donny managed to do it though, despite we have all seen him as borderline qualifier. Lesson there Daniel is that tempo change doesn’t always do bad 🙂

    – Sofi sharing 10th place has to be written in golden rules book – country with some friends in the semi can always surprise no matter how bad is its entry.

    – Places 10 to 16 in semi2 were within 10 points difference, Portugal missing “only” its regular 12 from Spain, Slovenia 17th did Feminnem after all…

  • Nick D

    I’d like to draw attention to a comment I made onAlbania’s prospects on the day of the semi-final allocation draw way back in January.

    “assuming a typical qualifying threshold of 60 points +/- 10” – it was 52.

    “it looks like they can bank decent points from Switzerland, Greece, Austria, Montenegro… leaving them most of the way home.” 46 points, as it turned out. Nearly there.

    “Belgium, San Marino, Latvia, Switzerland, Austria, Montenegro all appear to be less likely qualifiers…” Only Switzerland had picked their song at that stage, and all six didn’t qualify.

    “Ireland (assuming Jedward) would be far from bankers in that semi, too”. Pimped to 6th. Not bankers but never in too much peril as it turned out.

    “it leaves Suus… nicely placed to fly under the radar and tuck in to one of the lower qualifying slots.” Or alternatively, only fall short of actually winning the semi by 6 points.

    Sometimes listening to the songs just confuses the issue. 🙂

    • eurovicious

      Good stuff Nick. “Like”, as Monetta would say. Albania’s odds were always far too high, it’s ridiculous that I could get as high as evens on Rona’s qualification and 8.2 on her being top 3 in the semi. People don’t know their diasporas/voting allies and listen with Eurovision ears rather than jury ears.

  • Lazar

    The unusual underperforming of the scandinavian bloc is not a mistary. It’s the logical consequences for the simple reason that corrupt juries put all their points to Sweden.

    And Sofi’s 10th place is cos many people like the song, me too. I was surprised she did not qualify.

    • David

      Juries aren’t allowed to put “all their points” on one entry. After giving 12 pts to Sweden, they were fully entitled to give 10 pts to any other Scandi, and so on.

      That being said, that Norway and Iceland finished out of top10 didn’t suprise me. That Norway almost got beat by Bulgaria did a very great deal, however.

      • Emma

        Yes, my mind was thoroughly blown when I reallized it was a tie for tenth and one of the favorites was very nearly beaten by something I was convinced would not qualify. IIRC, the rules say that the one with the more televotes is ranked higher? Or is it more 12 pts? If it’s the former, the juries have thrown me a serious curveball there. How was there *anything* redeeming in Love Unlimited? Did the fact she was (supposedly) singing in 10 different lanuages help? Very disturbed….

        • sonovox

          Don’t think it’s either – it seems to be points from the most different countries, followed by most 12s etc:

          “Should there be a tie for the last position in a Semi-Final (because two songs have received the same number of points) or for the first place in the Final, as well as any other situation where a tie occurs, the winner shall be the song which has obtained points from the highest number of countries. If the tying songs have received points from the same number of countries, the highest number of 12-point scores shall be decisive. If the winner still cannot be determined by this procedure, the number of times ten points have been awarded shall be the deciding factor. If necessary, this method shall continue until account has been taken of the number of times one point has been awarded”

          I think the “most points from televote” thing is just used to resolve a single country’s points allocation – i.e. public 12 + jury 8 beats public 10 and jury 10, etc.

        • eurovicious

          In a semi with this many other South Slavic countries voting, and with a good, contemporary, effectively-staged Romanian-style dance song by a known and respected performer, Bulgaria’s odds to qualify were always far too high. I didn’t touch it either way. The fact she’s alone on stage is the whole point – she doesn’t need a load of dancers and backing vocalists – and the catherine wheels were very effective. I don’t like most chalga and by and large I think Bulgaria has terrible pop music compared to its neighbour Serbia, but I liked Love Unlimited a lot.

          • David

            Surely you’re sarcastic when you say effectively staged? 😉

            She’s a brilliant singer, and my guess is that that, plus friends, was what nearly pushed it over the edge. It’s pretty close at the bottom anyway; not that many points are needed. So it really takes a _complete_ no-hoper to justify 8+ odds.

        • eurovicious

          With my limited Slavic skills, even I understood the gist of the Bulgarian-language verse, so all of the ex-Yu countries in the semi plus Ukraine, Belarus etc. will have done too.

  • Lazar

    That’s right, but…
    When currupt juries all give 12 to Sweden, they need a balanced ratio for the further points. They have to appreciate other styles, other regions, and as a result of this other scandinavians miss the points.

    • eurovicious

      Do they though? 2009’s results (with Norway, Iceland and Denmark coming 1st, 2nd and 6th in the jury vote respectively) would appear to belie this hypothesis.

  • eurovicious

    Good morning to one and all. (Yes, I know it’s two o’clock. On Monday.)

    My overall result on this year’s contest was €2826.64, from a starting bank of about €7K. As a newcomer to serious Eurovision betting who’d never wagered more on the contest than a few two-figure flutters in 2007/8 with no strategy, I’m extremely pleased with this. Not just because of the money, but because it reaffirms to me than I can do this. I’m on the right track. I know what I’m doing to a sufficient extent to make this work. But most of all, because now I actually have the results to back up my commentary. It’s one thing opining about what will and won’t do well, but now I can point to major returns.

    I made a 33% return on each semi, which is where most of my money came from. In SF1 I heavily backed Rona to qualify at odds between 1.5 and 2, with a smaller speculative top 3 bet at odds of 8.2. I also heavily backed Iceland, had a small amount on Hungary, laid Finland, Latvia and Montenegro, and laid Cyprus top 3. What didn’t come through were my bets on Denmark (to win, be top 3, and to beat Greece and Russia) plus other smaller speculative bets backing Belgium, laying Greece, and laying Cyprus as tipped by Daniel here 😉

    In SF2 I heavily backed Ott to qualify at odds of about 1.3, plus Estonia and Turkey to both qualify at 1.45 and Estonia to beat Slovenia at 1.65. I also backed Turkey, Bosnia and Macedonia, laid Georgia, and locked in guaranteed profit by backing then laying Belarus at odds of about 2.8 both ways. My bet on Croatia to beat Slovenia came through at 2.2, as did Estonia to be top Baltic overall at 1.73 (good job I didn’t make the same bet just on SF2, as Lithuania actually beat Estonia!). My only bets that didn’t come through in SF2 were Croatia to qualify (which I put on in March before I saw the problematic staging and before the song was watered down) and a small speculative longer-odds lay on Ukraine.

    The final was less of a success though still profitable, and has provided me with key insights on my strategy for next year. In March, after all of this year’s songs had been chosen and finalised, I decided Denmark, Norway and Iceland were the most likely winners (Egg of Damocles klaxon all round there) and backed them in the win and top 10 markets, with a saver on Sweden (yay!). If I hadn’t backed those three in March, and if I had done as Daniel did and backed Sweden yesterday afternoon after the voting order was revealed instead of waiting until the start of the voting sequence, by which time the odds were lower, my returns on the final would have been a lot higher, as would my overall free capital. As Daniel advises, I’m going to steer clear of the win market to a far greater extent next year (also including in the semis) and focus on Q/NQ, top 4/5/10, and head-to-head/group bets, as that’s what really worked for me this year. Without my early backing of Denmark, Norway and Iceland, I’d have made €1500 more, though of course I’m very satisfied with what I achieved.

    Most of my returns on the final came from backing Sweden to win at odds between 3 and 1.15(!), and backing Azerbaijan each way, top 4, top 5, top 10, to beat Turkey, and to finish higher than Ukraine at 1.73, though I lost on Azerbaijan top ex-USSR due to the grannies’ surprise success. I backed Spain top 10, though I lost on Spain in other markets (top 4, top 5, top big 5, to win etc.). Rona and Ott proved reliable again – I had Albania top 10 at 13.8, Estonia top 10 at 5.3, and Estonia to beat Moldova at 1.95. Other bets that paid off were Italy not to finish in top 5, Ireland to beat UK at 1.55, Turkey to beat Greece at 2, Turkey to beat Cyprus at 1.65, Turkey top 10 at 2.3 (as tipped by Dan), Cyprus not to finish top 10 (also as tipped by Dan), Serbia top 10 (though I lost on Serbia to beat Russia), and UK to come 21st-26th at a massive 11, which I placed in March after Engelbert was first announced but before the song was revealed.

    I think this year’s results tell us a number of things about the changing nature of the contest. Based on the jury vote in last year’s semi and final, I commented that the juries vote for earnestness. But after yesterday, I don’t think that word’s sufficient anymore – this year’s contest rewarded art and gravitas. It’s an extremely welcome development in musical terms and very good for the contest and its quality and reputation, but even though I had bets on Rona and Ott to go top 10 and for Rona to be top 3 in her semi, I was still (very pleasantly) suprised at how just how well Albania and Estonia did. This was a year of quality ballads and strong performers, and the very best and – crucially – the most progressive, artistic, sincere, contemporary, and reflective of their nations’ musical cultures were rewarded. More generic, less original, radio-friendly English-language ballads from Iceland, the UK and Denmark did poorly, despite all being fine songs in their own right and more than competently performed. Meanwhile, emotionally rending ballads in native languages, passionately delivered by outstanding artists and featuring minimal artifice – Serbia, Albania, Estonia and Spain – all went top 10, in the case of the latter three tremendously overcoming a lack of voting allies. This is incredibly significant. And while I puzzle over the fact that poor Tooji, on his birthday, came last of all, the fact that Sweden came first and Norway last despite superficial similarities between the two entries illustrates my point perfectly. Both countries sent a modern dance song written by Peter Boström and performed by an artist with North African/Middle Eastern heritage respectively. The difference: Stay is about going to a club and having a good time, has no artistic pretensions (it does what it does and does it well) and is not vocally driven. Euphoria, by contrast, is powerfully vocally led, has more artistic pretensions than your average Turner Prize entrant or experimental student play, and aspires to depth. The striking staging and loud/quiet pattern of the song convey an emotional narrative. Without Loreen, her presence and voice, and without that staging, the song wouldn’t have done so well. I’ve heard it was originally offered to Danny Saucedo, who rejected both it and Shout It Out (which David Lindgren then took) in favour of Amazing. Let’s think for a moment what would have happened if Danny had taken Euphoria to Eurovision and performed it with a weaker vocal and more club/Saade/Tooji-style staging. Would it have won? With Loreen and Euphoria, it’s about the complete artistic package. Every element is correct. If it had been performed Tooji-style by a grinning heartthrob, or if Loreen had performed it with Tooji’s staging and dance routine or an approximation thereof – which would have been perfectly possible given the type of song – I don’t think we’d be going to Stockholm next year. (See you there!)

    Surprises this year (for me and many others):
    – how well the grannies did (they must have been a very close second to Loreen in the televote)
    – how poorly the rest of Scandinavia did (which I’m tracing back to the reasons outlined above). Denmark coming ninth in its semi and Tooji joint 10th, tying with Bulgaria. Wow.
    – Malta getting through (bloomin’ eck! But it was well staged and performed.)

    I wasn’t surprised at how badly Greece and Ukraine did. Well-staged, but both far too lightweight for the modern 50%-jury contest. They got the results they deserved, and when the jury vote is revealed I’m sure Cyprus will be higher than Greece in it, as for obvious diaspora reasons Greece normally expects a higher televote.

    One question I have to pose is: does this shift towards serious, emotional music and away from fun club pop and English-language radio pop apply to this year only (heavy on very strong ballads) or in general? If so, is the contest in danger of becoming less “fun”? I guess we’ll have to see what next year’s songs are like. But if there’s another entry of the calibre of Suus or Kuula next year (which I’m not counting on), expect it to excel. And in terms of the changing nature of the contest, how can it be that Popular came third just last year and Stay came last this year when they have so much in common and, musically, Stay is in fact the stronger song? Was it because Tooji’s staging was just him and his dancers and thus far less striking/memorable than Popular or Euphoria? Was it because of the red and black? Was it because the song has a more complex structure than Popular or Euphoria and its verse and chorus are less clearly demarcated? Because it’s less repetitive than either? Because it was too camp? Because of all of the above? Or, and I hate to say this but I’m putting it out there, in light of widespread Islamophobia across all parts of Europe, was it down to Tooji’s looks? Loreen and Saade can pass as being of European heritage but I’m not sure Tooji can as well.

    One last thing to bring this long comment to a close: until last October, I had very little betting knowledge and had never heard of Sofabet. Sounds like a cheesy The Voice “best bits” speech, but I can genuinely say that becoming part of the Sofabet community has changed my life. Thank you, Daniel, for sharing your insights and expertise with us here on this site, and for pioneering the whole field of big-money Eurovision betting. I would never have dreamt of venturing into something like this – betting thousands of euros of my savings on the Eurovision – on my own, but seeing your success proved to me that it was possible, and that I could translate my own skills and contest knowledge into actual profit with the right dedication. You were my motivation. Thank you!!!! And thanks to my “betting partner” Tim B – we’ve been bouncing thoughts off each other and analysing this year’s contest on a daily basis and both returned a four-figure profit as a result.

    Eurovicious signing off…

    • Tim B

      Awww thanks to you too, eurovicious! It’s been emotional *wipes away tear*. I quite feel like revealing your true identity – Scooby Doo style – but I think I’ll resist…for now 😉

      Now when are we getting those bloody televote/jury splits?!

    • Boki

      Nice review as always ev, I’m totally glad for your excellent turnover. Can’t wait for the next year to see what it brings, not only in terms of betting but in rapidly changing contest.

  • Panos

    Eurovicious, many thanks for your excellent analysis. I’ve had similar returns, failures and lessons learnt for next year, you almost took the words from my mouth and it was great to re-iterate my thoughts. Also, a huuugee thank you to Daniel of course, as you said, as without him I would have never been inspired either to turn my knowledge into both a passion and a stream of income. Many many thanks, I think I speak for many on this site when I say that you are a role model hehehe! I hope we, and others, get to meet some day, although I recently moved out of London. Stockholm 2013 anyone?! 🙂

    Take care all! Bring on the X-Factor with its weekly profit in the elimination market!

  • tpfkar

    A few thoughts from the morning after:

    1) Looking at the voting tables, 40/41 countries voted for both Sweden and Russia (Italy didn’t go for Loreen and the Swiss were granny-allergic) No other country got anywhere near this record – my tip Serbia swept the Balkans but just didn’t have the impact outside.

    Russia and Sweden managed to cross all the cultural boundaries and got points well away from allies – BUT – Russia only got one maximum. This does suggest a disconnect between the televote and juries as suggested beforehand.

    2) We spent months analysing what could happen, and most of us missed Albania coming top 5. But even more random, how about the Albanian vote in the semi giving 12 points to Euro Neuro, and 10 points to the San Marino Facebook song?

    3) Whatever happened to Norway? I still haven’t heard a decent answer on this one, and it cost me handsome returns on the UK coming last. Had Norway entered ‘Euphoria’ and Sweden sung ‘Stay’ would Stay have come last? Or do we need to recognise that Scandinavia don’t act as a region in the way the Balkans / Baltic States do? Tooji was far better than Englebert, truth be told. Still looking for ideas here.

    4) My instinct on some front-runners who wouldn’t challenge for the win was sound. I never considered Romania, Ireland, Italy, Ukraine (even with the good draw) as contenders, or Belgium, Georgia, Austria as possible qualifiers. However although I realised my lay on Sweden for the win (made in March) was going wrong, I made a mess of covering it, backing Serbia and Azerbaijan for the win instead of top 5. Lessons learned:
    -my instincts on who will do badly are better than who will do well
    -how to deal with having laid a strong favourite
    -minimise stakes in win market and maximise elsewhere.

  • Nick D

    2) Albania often votes jury-only, as they did this time, and that jury often votes… eccentrically. Perhaps corruptly, perhaps tactically, or perhaps they just have awesomely different taste. But Albanian Juries Vote Weird.

    3) I think we can assume that juries completely killed Tooji, possibly right down to a Norwegian Nul with that constituency. Juries can just about bear commercial pop if it’s presented brilliantly and sung perfectly. Stay failed on both scores.

    Televotes – well, logically Tooji’s never going to beat Loreen and he’s rarely going to beat the Grannies. Add in two or three neighbours getting favoured in the Balkans etc and you’re heading for the threshold where he can’t get a scoreboard point.

    • Emma

      First off, a big thank you to Daniel for all the work he’s put into this site. We really appreciate it.

      Definitely agree with you, Nick, on the Tooji point. He tied with Bulgaria for 10th in his semi and he was the one to make it through meaning he had a higher televote than she did. Still, just because the juries kill you doesn’t mean you’re destined for last in the final–look at Russia last year. Vorobjov came last with the juries due to similar problems (weak vocals, a none-too-sophisticated song) but he did quite well with the televotes despite an even worse draw than Tooji’s, all too close to his main rival, Saade and finished 16th. Evidently, the televoters must have felt rather lukewarm as well. Still puzzling over how that happened–an uptempo entry sandwiched between two ballads from a country that is part of a respectable voting bloc. Vorobjov may have had the ex-Soviet Union behind him but Norway isn’t as friendless as, say, the UK or Malta.

      My only possible explanation for certain entries doing surprisingly well or poorly with the televote this: it’s not just about where you stand in the draw, it’s about whom you stand beside. Look at Azerbaijan last year. Austria before them, Slovenia after them. The televoters ranked those two countries 24th and 22nd, respectively. Azerbaijan was boosted up by contrast and they looked better than they would have if they had been between Sweden and Ukraine, for example. You could make a similar case for Estonia last year, stuck between Sweden as Greece. Sweden came in a very, very close second with the televote, Greece came in third. Ergo Getter Jaani looks worse by contrast and she hits 23rd with the televote. This isn’t always the case, but it seems to apply to poor Tooji. I have little doubt that Estonia and Azerbaijan both got plenty of jury love for their well-performed ballads but the televoters couldn’t have ignored them or they’d have finished well outside the top 10. We’ve seen that when televoters and juries strongly disagree (Slovenia, Austria and Russia 2011 come to mind), the entry finishes somewhere between 10th and 20th. So clearly, people must have been dialing in for Ott and Sabina and as a result, Tooji was overlooked. There are probably some more cases of this in 2012 but I’m not calling anything until I see the televote/jury breakdown.

      Not sure if this is making any sense–this is just speculation and me trying to find patterns so these curveballs Europe throws at us aren’t so curveball-y anymore 🙂

      By the way, anyone have an explanation for Ukraine’s surprisingly poor placing? Great draw, she still had plenty allies even though the Soviet bloc was busy dialing in for Russia (and Az, Est, and maybe Lith?), and it was a vocally-competent, fun performance. So…either the juries hated it (as Eurovicious said, it was lightweight) or (and I hate to say it), maybe a little racism on the televoters’ part. Possibly both. Thoughts, anyone?

      That being said, it’s lovely to finally see Ukraine well out of top 10 even with a near perfect draw and Greece out of top 10 too. Cheap, bad song, not especially well-performed, and drawn right beside the clear favorite. Totally deserved 17th.

      • eurovicious

        Agree on Ukraine. And I think you have some really excellent points there on the importance of which songs an act is next to or sandwiched between. In fact, I think you’ve absolutely hit the nail on the head there – Tooji would have looked especially lightweight sandwiched between Ott (oo-er) and Sabina. Hadn’t thought of that but it’s a major, major factor. Similarly, lots of casual viewers could have used Iceland as a toilet break (that sounds awful) after the grannies. We’re onto something here. Denmark’s failure, meanwhile, I put down to the weakness of the song.

  • David

    I honestly don’t think racism has much to do with either Ukraina’s or Norway’s results. If voters were sensitive for that they should have had problems with the Morocco-parented Loreen and her colored dancer. Also I remember France’s dance entry scoring massive televotes in 2010 despite a (in my eyes) pretty weak song – no real room for racism there either. So for every “non-european looking” flop there seems to be a success story, but when looking for explanations it’s easy to only see the evidence supporting the theory.

    Just my 2 cents!

    • Boki

      We need to see the split tables first anyway before drawing the conclusions. Btw, check your inbox (or spam folder) David.

    • eurovicious

      I’m inclined to agree. Having thought about it more, I think the three primary issues with Norway this year and last are 1) poppiness/lightweightness without strong vocals and 2) song-country disparity. Consider:

      Rybak: Norwegian, looked and sounded Norwegian. Won despite being unbearable saccharine shite.
      Haba Haba: Norwegian but looked and sounded African. Failed to qualify despite being loads of fun.
      Stay: Norwegian but looked and sounded Middle-Eastern. Barely qualified, came last in final despite being awesome.

      The vast majority of viewers aren’t sitting there with scorecards like us nerds and 25 songs is a lot to remember, so a song/performance that clearly communicates what country it’s from is a great advantage. Norway didn’t do that this year or last. This year, almost every country in the top 10 did. Serbia looked and sounded Serbian, ditto Azerbaijan, Albania, Estonia, Turkey, Italy and Spain. The grannies also reflected their culture, and even Euphoria represented Sweden’s global leading role in the pop music industry. Germany was the only country in the top 10 with a song that didn’t represent its culture, but that’s par for the course (the country has sent explicitly American or British-sounding songs to the contest almost every year since 2006 – country, swing, swing again, a mockney mockery, a mockney mockery again, etc… as a long-term resident of Germany, its self-conception increasingly drives me up the wall).

      The other issue as far as Tooji is concerned is that unfortunately there’s a tendency within the broader music industry (particularly among the type of people called to sit on Eurovision juries) to look down on europop and eurodance as tacky and underestimate the amount of skill involved in their creation – Loreen’s success this year with her artsy, jury-friendly, ingeniously staged entry notwithstanding. In this regard, I’m sorry to say that Stay is best grouped with Moldova 2010 and Albania 2009. Run Away, Carry Me In Your Dreams and Stay are all (I’d argue) superbly conceived, written, produced and performed europop/dance numbers that bombed with juries and to a certain extent also with the public because they just weren’t credible enough. In future with songs of this kind that lack the impressive staging of Euphoria, Popular or Lipstick, it might be not be a bad idea to bet against them finishing in the top 10.

      • sonovox

        Mmmmmaybe. On the other hand, maybe the top 10 songs with song-country cohesion were just better packages anyway. Remember, Greece sounded plenty Greek, and France plenty French. Ultimately it was sheer frivolity and poor-quality staging/singing respectively that (most likely, and especially with juries) caused those songs to bomb – I doubt that there was much politically motivated anyone-but-Greece voting, but we might get a better idea of that from the split.

        And I’m not really sure you need to go much further than that to explain Stay’s failure. Who was it (Nick D?) who reminded us just before the final of the notoriously brittle support for Norway? Rybak’s runaway win v Tooji’s bare Q and finals disaster v Stella’s NQ exactly reflects IMO the merits of those songs as performed (among other things, the first two at least had credible hooks, in contrast with the clanging numbness of Haba Haba’s Afrobeat. Meanwhile, Rybak looked a lot less desperate onstage than Tooji and especially Stella, both of whose lead vocals were also subpar). Put at its crudest, good Norwegian presentations can garner support, while bad ones will struggle even within the Scandinavian bloc. I suspect that whether the song sounds Norwegian or not doesn’t mean much either way. Whether we can agree on the good ones is another matter entirely 🙂

        EV, do you really, truly think Stay was ‘superbly performed’? I think the comparison with Moldova 2010 is an interesting one. I loved Run Away and was surprised by it tanking so badly, but I think the many points of difference between it and Stay make it a bit of a risk to lump them into the same category for analysis purposes.

        One last observation, patriotic in its own way: Norway came 15th in the Australian televote – not too bad on a first glance, but actually miles down the pecking order of the English-language songs, which tend to do best here (Ireland, UK, Greece and Italy also get boosted somewhat by friendly votes). Dunno what that means, but it probably means a lot of it.

        Cheers!

        • eurovicious

          The semi performance was slack and vocally off, as a result of which I didn’t vote for it and wasn’t confident it would qualify. However, the performance in the final was tight, on point and fine vocally – they successfully reproduced the MGP final performance. I have to defend Stay and Haba Haba – performance-wise they were both fine and certainly didn’t look desperate. Stella wasn’t stellar (haha) vocally but it’s not a song that demands that. Rybak is hardly the greatest vocalist himself. That Australian figure is very interesting – obviously the song just didn’t catch on with the broader public, either here in Europe or among the watching ESC fans in Australia.

          What this boils down to is, I think we’re seeing very much that the modern, 50%-jury contest is all about a) the voice and b) the credibility of the overall package.

        • eurovicious

          Meant to say: interesting points.

          • sonovox

            Yep, Tooji’s final was much better than his semi, I’ll gladly give you that. Won’t give an inch on Haba Haba though! I found it atrocious and also a fairly transparent attempt to ride on the coattails of Waka Waka.

            Anyhow, these differences of opinion as to song quality aren’t so important. We can see what other people think and adjust to acknowledge our blind spots easily enough if necessary. What’s really interesting is trying to appraise when quality, once identified, will be rewarded and when lack of quality will be punished.

            Anyhow, competence across the board, it seems, will typically fare much worse than an offering that sticks in the mind, whatever holes you can poke at it in the cold light of day. Lithuania has smashed its way through both of the last two semi-finals. Meanwhile, forgettably drawn Denmark finishes twenty places behind Russia in the final. Eurovision is hard 🙁

  • zoomraker

    Thanks to all on this site.

    Managed a 30% ROI so a good result.

    Going to put a lot more work in next year.

    Does anyone have a good link for eurovision voting block analysis?

  • Aleksander

    When will the split between the juries and the viewers be announced?

    • Nick D

      EBU usually waits at least a fortnight to release them – 2010 it was quite a bit longer, nearly two months. Basically it’s whenever they’re ready, and they probably won’t split them jury-by-jury.

  • Lazar

    I have backed Bulgaria several times for going into the final. Last price 8.00 at Betfair. Bitter to see how close it was. This would have been a big point for me this year.

  • Donald

    Really enjoyed Eurovision here on Sofabet.

    A decent result and look forward to Daniels review if doing one.

    Definitely a good week to take off.

  • Chris aka Spanky

    Thanks for the comments and your ongoing coverage, Daniel!!!

    After winning four times in a row, I came up with a loss this year. In the finals I lost on Russia because I had laid them for a top 4 and top 5 spot. I also laid Sweden as winner. Instead, I put money on Serbia to win. Oh well…

    I found Sweden a bit difficult to predict. However, it didn’t really surprise me that Loreen won. Russia in second place, however, was a big, big surprise for me. I really expected professional juries to to favor other songs…

    The rule to date seems to have been that dance and gimmicky songs have not been favored by juries. Russia seems to demonstrate that a lot of media hype can render this assumption obsolete. I guess it is time to question my assumptions about the contest.

    • eurovicious

      I was surprised at the grannies’ success, but Zeljko was obviously never going to have broad appeal outside of ex-Yu, while Loreen had already charted at #1 in 4 countries and lower down in many others…

  • eurovicious

    As if to back up my analysis, in pops this email from my mum (who isn’t an ESC fan) today:

    “We enjoyed Eurovision, thought quality much better than for many years, actual focus seemed to be on songs & voices rather than staging, stunts, groups, dancers etc.”

    She continues:

    “One song (think it was the Turkish entry) was reminiscent of an old music hall song which had a refrain of ‘the old bazaar in Cairo’, performed by a group called Wilson, Keppel & Betty, to which they did their ‘Egyptian sand dance’. We were both up doing our version round the living room – Dad remarked ‘Anybody going past would say “Thank God we don’t live next door to that lot, they’re both crackers!”‘”

    LOVE IT. The apple hasn’t fallen far from the tree.

    Heartwarming nuttiness aside, this set me off on another train of thought. Namely, that Norway’s failure wasn’t just due to all the factors discussed above, but because it was buried by… Turkey. Two uptempo, Middle-Eastern sounding numbers performed by a guy with a bunch of dancers. Turkey was later in the draw, better staged, had more far visual hooks (Norway had none apart from the choreo) and has more of a built-in vote. Yet another potential explanation for why Norway went under, one I consider highly credible. After all, why vote for the Turkish-sounding/looking song from Norway when you can vote for the even more Turkish-sounding/looking one from Turkey?

    As Anders Breivik once said: “I just love Eurovision!”

    • Emma

      …I’m sure Anders Brevik was delighted Norway was once again represented by someone who was born far south of Norway singing a very un-Norwegian song.

      Agree with your mum–it was a great quality year. The gag entries were less serious but the serious ones were genuinely good and this year’s top 10 is no doubt great for the contest’s reputation. Aside from Russia, we’ve got flawlessly performed chart-topping dance, five flawlessly performed ballads, four of which were in native languages, strong jazz-pop only half in English, quirky fun ethnopop, and a very chill undramatic pop song with impressive credentials, with Greece and Ukraine in the bottom 10. Perhaps it’s the dawn of a new era in which the world takes the contest more seriously?

      Very interesting point about Turkey/Norway and I think you’re right. If Turkey had sent Live It Up this year, methinks they would have qualified still (if only because of the built-in vote) but the Turkish diaspora would have responded a little more favorably to Norway. Also interesting to think what would have happened if Sweden had sent Danny (who’s been busy claiming that he would have won too–“it was Sweden’s year”, which I think has a grain of truth)–he probably wouldn’t have been in the lower right corner of the scoreboard with Tooji and they wouldn’t have canceled each other out like some of us feared.

      I say we can make a similar statement RE Norway’s victory in 2009 too. Norway sent something that sounded Russian performed by a genuine Belarussian the year Russia sent something famously un-Russian and the likes of Ukraine and Belarus both sent entries that weren’t especially Ukrainian or Belarussian-feeling. Ergo, much of the Eastern Euro diaspora turned to the most Eastern-Euro-folk-sounding song–which happened to come from Norway. And since Fairytale also sounded Scandinavian (I hear peope saying both), Alexander had that bloc covered too.

      Hate to say it, but I agree with Brevik on that and I’m really missing the mad speculation, refreshing my computer constantly at one in the morning to find out the results of the draw and desperate justifications for why all my favorites should/deserve to qualify. Seriously looking forward to release of the split vote.

  • eurovicious

    Just seen the Slovenian jury vote. In SF2 they gave 3 to Georgia(!!!!), 7 to Donny Montell(!), 6 to Kurt(!) and 4 to Tooji, but just 1 to Estonia and nothing at all to Bosnia or Macedonia(!!!). There goes my theory of gravitas…

    In the final they suddenly gave 6 to Bosnia despite giving it nowt in the semi (I smell a rat), and nothing at all to lightweight fare like Albania, Estonia and Macedonia, saving their points for serious entries like Moldova (5), Russia (4) and Cyprus (2). This means Slovenia’s 6 points to Kaliopi came entirely from the televote. Unbelievable.

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