X Factor 2011 Week 9 Update: Misha, B gone?

Our preview article hypothesised four different scenarios for tonight’s show. Within five minutes of the show opening, it was clear we were in scenario 3. There was an unambiguous announcement that there would be no sing-off, and Misha B was announced as first to sing. This told us all we needed to know about whether they were hoping to get her above Amelia Lily, i.e. it doesn’t look that way.

As we wrote, scenario 3 “would most likely spell curtains for Misha. At which point you will no longer be able to get around 4/5 with the likes of Boylesports that she will go.” So it came to pass – her odds instantly fell off a cliff on Betfair.

It was tempting to post this update post at 8.05pm, having learned all we seemed to need. But then we’d have missed some uncomfortable moments for backers of both the favourites.

Neither of Little Mix’s performances were vocally impressive, and Leigh-Anne appeared to do a Janet with the lyrics in their first song. While there was plenty of praise for Little Mix after the pimp slot performance, it was noticeable that it was praise for what they could become if they ever got it together rather than for what we had just seen.

What astonished us was after their first song, when Gary talked about how Perrie is the best singer and this should be recognised more than it is. This came as quite a shock, given that “Ashford, you’re the main man” was part of the tactics used to strangle Nu Vibe in week 1, and Louis’s “Charlie, you’re the main man” with follow-up comments from Gary helped send The Risk to the bottom of the public vote in week 5.

Here is a tactic that has worked effectively twice this series to dampen support for a group. Why wheel it out for Little Mix?

Could it be that Kate in the comments is right? “Little Mix – heavy red and black theme, unflattering camera angles, unflattering judge comments (esp. after the praise ladled on Misha and Amelia’s karaoke-thons) followed by staged argument. Please see my “Little Mix will die tonight” conspiracy theory above, and feel free go “hmmm”.

Here’s that earlier post from Kate, which is intriguing – although with a noticeable lack of pimping for Misha, which she surely needed, we doubt very much that Little Mix are in any kind of trouble tonight.

Over at betsfactor, Richard wondered: “I think Gary DELIBERATELY and probably against producers wishes, said that stuff about Perrie. After all, he wants to win.” Is it possible that Gary might have gone rogue at points tonight? It has been widely reported, after all, that he’s not so keen on returning next year, and he may calculate he has nothing to lose.

Little Mix backers will have rested much easier after Marcus’s second performance, though. His first one, ‘My Girl’, suited him well – if ever there was someone who has sunshine on a cloudy day, it is the cheery Liverpudlian.

But in ‘Can You Feel It’, Marcus was yet again lumbered with a song that required him to labour in his less-good lower register. If they were trying to build momentum for the final, they chose a strange way of going about it – how hard is it to find songs that don’t require him to hit notes he struggles with?

Just to balance out Kate’s theory from earlier, here’s a pre-show one from EM: “If I was running the shop today I’d be trying to get Marcus out now as he has all the hallmarks of a Joe McElderry career and that’s not making anyone money. Just a thought.” (And here are EM’s post-show thoughts, just posted on the last thread, always worth a read if you missed them).

All in all, we reckon it was an evening that demands a second viewing to figure out what it means for next week’s final. The fact that Amelia’s odds have plummeted despite her not being especially good tonight certainly tells a story of its own.

As far as Sunday’s elimination is concerned, we saw no particular reason tonight to think that producers are holding out any great hope of getting Misha into the final, and the market agrees – she’s currently a best priced 2/5.

When you’re betting on an elimination which doesn’t involve the judges, though, odds-on starts to look a whole lot less attractive, and for the moment we’re intending to sit this one out.

What did you make of it all? Do let us know below.

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98 comments to X Factor 2011 Week 9 Update: Misha, B gone?

  • tpfkar

    I had to miss the first 5 minutes, didn’t I? 😉

    My question this week was whether they’d try to sink another act, or just play it positive to the end. When they’ve aimed, they’ve hit their target throughout the series.

    But it looks to me like they went down the other route, for the good of the show. But – for me it backfired as it only showed up some of the weaknesses of all of the acts. You’ve already gone through in detail, but for me Marcus’s second song was the duffest he’s done, torpedoing some humility in the VT and Little Mix were, well, a little mixed. Amelia can still shout, and Misha can still gurn.

    Misha’s treatment felt valedictory, lots of journey stuff, lots about how she didn’t need the show, and a crowbarred attempt to undo bullygate – that horse left the stable weeks ago. I’ll wait for Toby’s stats but it looks like Misha will go gracefully.

    I took a quick top-up on Marcus in the win market just after he sang, at 3.2 I didn’t think he would stay that high for long given Little Mix were about to attempt a very difficult song, so it proved. Amelia’s odds for the win look mighty short for me, as you say this probably just highlights how weak the competition is.

  • EM

    Tomorrow’s Star front page won’t make pretty reading for LittleMux fans http://t.co/sayQkc9v although it looks like the usual lowest of the low reporting in that the headline doesn’t reflect the story

  • Matt

    It now seems clear that we have a Little Mix, Marcus and Amelis final three. Misha got the death slot with the old red and black for performance one (kudos Richard) while Amelia got two songs that suited her well. I didn’t think she’d pull it off as I’ve not been wowed by her and have criticised her vocal, but the Mowtown song was great and she sang well throughout.

    Let’s face it, Misha clearly hasn’t got a massive vote share, got the death slot, got the red and black and has been in the bottom two more times than she probably cares to remember. Since it’s down to the public vote I can’t see how she’ll survive.

    I found the Marcus/Little Mix thing interesting. Not pimping Little Mix in the first half made me think they were saving a pimp slot for the final. Then a Little Mixer stuffed her lyrics and the judges went into overdrive on the ‘not very good girls’ comments, presumably to get fans voting. If they do have a solid voting fanbase nothing better than to make it seem like they’re not safe to get the vote out.

    I thought Marcus’s first track was a bit average and his second track showed the lack of a lower vocal register at the start. I think he’s probably got the fan base to be safe to the final though. I can’t see Misha’s vote topping his.

    After Little Mix’s screw up they were pimp slotted for the second half. I wonder if that was planned or last minute after their first poor performance…

    Marcus’s second track was interesting. It immediately reminded me of the Derren Brown show where ‘Can You Feel It’ was used to buoy up unwitting members of the public to rob a security van. If there is a subliminal message there I’m not sure what it is, but am intrigued…

    I think my betting ends for this series, nothing is for sure (other than Misha going, I think). With Little Mix and Marcus probably through to the final things are looking good on my bets though, so all fine!

  • Jack

    I’m a bit worried for Marcus, but I think his late slot(s) and loyal fanbase will see him through to the final. Same with LM.

    I think that Misha’s 3rd sympathy bounce has been depressed and I think she will go tomorrow. Amelia will live to fight another day and Little Mix will win altogether.

  • Kate

    Re: my conspiracy theory (conspiracy hypothesis really). I don’t actually believe that’s what’s happening – it was more of an exercise in identifying what tactics the producers would use if they were trying to pimp Misha to victory.

    I do feel that there was an attempted Little Mix hatchet job tonight, though by the standards of a generally unimpressive night they weren’t as outstandingly poor as the judges seemed to think. I flagged up the “not ready yet” technique in my hypothesis, and if I were pushing it further I’d suggest looking at how the camera was close-up on Leigh-Anne at the precise moment she forgot her lyrics. It wasn’t a major gaffe (especially compared to Janet’s last week) and without the close-up I don’t think it would have been noticed. I’m not sure that the judges did.

    The problem is that this takes conspiracy into ludicrous territory. It implies a pre-planned flubb, and no matter how devious the producers might be I doubt they’d go the extent of getting contestants to sabotage themselves. This isn’t ‘Quiz Show’.

    There was no real Misha push. She got good comments for a couple of ordinary performances, especially her karaoke opening number, but no real pimpage let alone an anointment. Unless the dislike is really engrained she may have got into the final, but I think that might be at the expense of Marcus, who was made to seem very anonymous today even to the extent of being denied the pimp slot for his second song.

    The big boost tonight was for Amelia, who wasn’t spectacular but held her own and came through looking like a potential finalist in a way that she could easily have not done.

  • Rob

    a lot of people will be screaming BRING BACK JANET after tonight’s offerings… very underwhelming! i expect LM’s confidence was seriously knocked tonight. i also don’t think the judges are under the control of the producers anymore and tulisa and gary were going for the jugular which only benefitted amelia.

    • sam

      yep that will be me….im ouside rightnow,screaming to the heavens BRING JANET BACK……………..going on this complete and utter tosh tonight i think many people will question the shows logic of last,i mean the mixs or should i say mixups forgetting the words,what!wait!thats what janet did last week and they screwed her big time for it,but very conveniently the judges did not even mention it at all,hummmmm somthing smell very very fishy there and i dont mean my late f&s supper!!

      • Kate

        I don’t think the judges noticed it. It was a very brief lapse and she regained her stride almost immediately. I’m not sure it would have been picked up live, or – to be honest – to the TV audience if the camera hadn’t been on Leigh-Anne at that moment.

        • EM

          I noticed and I wasn’t watching the screen at that point. I’d guess as professional musicians the judges would have noticed more.

          Apart from Louis who is not a professional musician just someone with encyclopaedic music knowledge. Berry Gordy indeed.

        • sam

          as brief as it was we the viewers noticed it and i for one was not really paying much attention to leigh-anne at the time but still picked it up due to the inprov 1 line rap she put in,but i think the judges did see it but just decided to wash over it so it did not scuffle there chances to much

      • CllrMick

        I think she stumbled over her words rather than forgot them. The mic got stuck in the stand as she tried to move away. Think the ad lib was a good way of getting round it although it also draws attention to your error. Bit like me ad libbing in panto when I forget my lines.

  • taichou

    yeah Tulisa is spamming Twitter again!:))

  • lolhart

    Gary did seem to go a bit loose cannon tonight with his lead singer comments to Little Mix and bringing up bullygate. It was funny how the cameras deliberately avoided showing Tulisa and Louis’ reactions. I suspect if it was part of the script we would have done. I think Little Mix will be okay as I think they’ve garnered the type of fanbase now who will vote for them regardless of the quality of their performances. Tulisa didn’t exactly help them with the table thumping though, as that could have put casual voters off.

    I was surprised Misha didn’t get pimped this week and so maybe the producers have resigned themselves to her leaving. However, it is possible they were concerned that if they were seen to favour her, it would cause people not to vote. I’m sure that certain sections of the press have criticised the judges for saving her three times. It might be safer to let her just and get good comments from the judges without going overboard.

  • Ben Cook

    Why does no one question whether the fact that it’s becoming so unpredictable suggests that maybe there isn’t as much producer manipulation than people think?

  • PG

    Long time reader first time poster.

    Difficult to know where to start, but the final could be classic car crash tv if they perform like they did tonight in a huge stadium arena.

    If we presume ( i know presumption is the mother of all **** ups ) but based on previous evidence Misha will go , how will TPTB engineer the running order for the final? If the running order for Marcus and LM was switched late on tonight, could they still put LM in the pimp slot 2 weeks in a row? I guess that Marcus was supposed to close the show tonight to clear the way for the LM pimp slot in the final, but has tonight’s first song disaster for LM scuppered those plans?

    In the words of a classic american football game ” its all up for grabs now” and the choice of special guests to accompany each finalist could be the difference.

    Lastly without being able to bet on x factor would you still watch it? for me its a NO.

    • Simon "le happy chat"

      I’d still watch it but it wouldnt be nearly as exciting…probsbly goes for most people on here.

      • sam

        for me yes i would, but untill they find another leona lewis the shows doomed to fail every time but haveing a flutter on it makes it a little more exciting to watch

    • Curtis

      I’d watch just to simply scout for acts like Janet who really appeal to me. I wouldn’t have watched tonight had it not been for betting. I was most disappointed when Misha came out first, I couldn’t lay Misha’s elimination like I said I would and as a result I’ve ended up making no bets tonight anyway! The show was a waste of my time!

  • sam

    is it just me or do little-mix look more and more like girls aloud every week,i mean the blond one (sorry dont know her name)could be a double for sarah harding?

  • jashala

    I don’t see the Perrie sarah comparision at all, Perrie is a blonde younger versions Of katy perry put two pictures of them side by side you will see it lol, if Perrie diyed her hair black she would be a younger version of katy

  • Ron

    Could Marcus be the one to crash out tomorrow? Everyone is assuming it will be Misha B, or perhaps Amelia Lily or Little Mix. If people assume Marcus is safe, it could spell real danger for him. Fans of the other three acts will be voting in droves, and it was a below par evening for Marcus, despite Barlow’s ravings.

  • Chris O

    For those interested in this sort of thing, here is the feedback from tonights show in the only place I know that has a decent sample size to get some reaction.

    http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1594141

    Little Mix and Amelia ‘leading’ the way with 35% each. Misha got 18% and Marcus’ car crash earns him a measly 11%.

    Remember, this is just on tonights show, not your overall favourite

    How I read this……….LM very safe, some shaky moments tonight and judges trying to stick the knife in, but it seems even with poor performances, their fans still think they’re the top. Probably thanks to Perrie. When they watch this back on tape, they will realise they will not go that low in the vocal register again. A song choice error.

    Amelia, despite far from perfect vocals, gets a massive boost from being a distant third, will come right up to the pack.

    Marcus has a fairly big and wide fan base, but boy does he need it after that junk tonight. Is it possible that it was so poor, no-one will pick up the phone for him? Prob not but he’s definately the weeks biggest flopper.

    Misha, albeit talented, it about as popular as a turd in a swimming pool. Her only hope is that Marcus was so poor, he can be isolated, but I’d say thats unlikely.

    I kind of get the feeling we are at the end of a 3 miles 16 runner heavy ground novice chase, the remaining runners rounding the home bend are all off the bridle and you are looking behind to see whats staying on only to realise they are all pulled up and one of them is going to labour over the line in front.

  • Lux Lisbon

    Holy St. Francis! If this thing ends with Little Mix winning a contest where the number of entrants equals the population of a small African country, it will be an utter shambles!

    If they were an act singing in an end of year university ball, then fair enough. But when KR said that they could change the world, I nearly put a boot through my TV screen.

    And who the hell dressed them? I live in York in the UK, and never, ever, ever, have I seen girls dressed up and made up like that.

    I thought it was really telling too when, after the judge’s criticisms, the dark-haired little mixer responded with: “…well, we’ve still got the final.”

    Ooooh, have you now, Missy? Just be careful, because the English public do not like that kind of arrogance.

    All in all though, this has been a dog’s dinner of a series, guys.

    • jashala

      They are the furthest thing from being arrogant, Dermot also didnt let her finish her sentence before pulling the mic away for time contraints Im assuming. If they win its because there awesome, and there fans want them to win.

      • Kate

        To be fair to Dermot, he has good reason to want to hang on tight to that microphone 🙂

        • Pete D

          Yes Kate. It’s because he loves to hog the mic and the camera instead of letting and inoffensive young contestant (who has earned her way to that stage with hard work) finish off what she was saying. He is a very rude dude.

      • Pete D

        Well put Jashala and well noticed. Those girls haven’t an arrogant bone in their bodies (unlike the PINK “I deserve to be here” KARAOKE QUEEN and MISHA diva B).

        MARCUS too demonstrates how it SHOULD BE done too with quiet humility.

        Dermot is a real Ass sometimes and has got above himself with all this tv fame. I never buy his over patronising ‘try to sound keen’ crap on Radio 2 when interviewing his ‘everyone is fabulous’ guests. He has a bit of a nasty short fuse that one behind the scenes.

        He did EXACTLY the same microphone snatch trick on KITTY in a real public show off way if you remember.

        LITTLE MIX are by far the best and lasting marketable ‘brand’ package and they will only improve with experience and ‘match play’ like a fine wine (made from a quality vine and not ‘sour grapes’).

        I even saw the great SIR MACCA at Anfield repeat the same line twice in HIS OWN ‘Day in the life’ song and then balls up the opening bass-line to Penny Lane and had to start again.

        These are young girls and sooo bleedin’ what ? The messed up slightly under HUGE nerves. They are ‘human’.

        Have you ever seen THE SPICE GIRLS terrible audition tapes (where even after 10 years Victoria STILL couldn’t sing in tune) ?
        And look at the way THEY dressed too (and started a new trend with every girl copying them).

        Then again too, TAKE THAT’s first abysmal and cringmaking embarrassing studio appearance on a Granada tv. It was like like 5 one legged be-vested idiots at an Ass kicking party. How quickly Uncle Knob-head forgets his humble beginnings.

        Seems like they went on to ‘Rule the World’ though (sorry for the pun) AND doing record breaking sell out tours now. Folk should exercise some ‘Patience’.

        Meanwhile the LITTLE MIX STEAMROLLER chugs on flattening everything in its way.

  • Lux Lisbon

    It makes me giggle how EVERY SINGLE WEEK, Tulisa tells us how “strong” they are yet, not a single programme goes by, without one or all of them blubbering uncontrollably into the camera.

    They are all mentally week and won’t last five minutes.

    Where’s Steve Brookstein when you need him? :p

    • Kate

      “They’re All Mentally” Week isn’t a theme that TPTB are ever likely to go with.

      I’m not sure what the OP’s point is here. Can we stay focused on what an act’s prospects and probables are?

      • EM

        I read his point as being another indication of producers intentions. Despite strong evidence pointing one way the script is written that the act will be sold/derailed another way.

        So, for example, Janet Devlin might have been told to toughen up if she was constantly in tears we’re reminded that the Little Mix are so, so, strong.

  • Panos

    Singing position of eliminated acts at this stage of the competition:

    2005 – 3
    2006 – 1
    2007 – 1
    2008 – 2
    2009 – 4
    2010 – 4

  • Malcolm

    Sat through the whole show, the semi final; and still not a single act producing anything like a wow moment. People can rave on (and on) on here about the acts they have backed to win but it was poor.

    It seemed to me like they had left misha and Amelia to sort it out themselves with the voters, but then in the 2nd half they swapped the running order after little mix’s poor first song. That raised an eyebrow with Gary for sure. At this point I was thinking maybe Marcus was seen as a bit weak before the show and given the pimp slot to ensure he made the final. After the little mix cock-up they threw everything they had left at them to try and make sure they progress…. but didn’t bargain on the honesty of the judges.
    The x factor isn’t all about the record deal, it’s about entertainment week in week out as the live shows progress to the final. The Leona, Alexandra, joe and Matt years all had lots of it, but this years show has only had one blow you away moment in the live finals and that was when Craig chose his own song. Little mix do not seem ready. Perhaps they can shuffle again and bring back perrie as a solo in the final? Ha. Marcus is dull. Has he done anything vocally that has stunned us? Not me, though until last night i agreed that he might be the only ship left at the end. He managed to turn ‘Lately’ into a show tune, not sung with the sensitivity or feeling that that song requires.
    Looks very likely that misha will go tonight. I don’t care who wins the final. Marcus will end up in Chicago, Little Mix will be on Swap Shop every week (or would have been 35 years ago when Saturday morning tv for kids still existed), and Amelia will pretend to be Pink.

  • Boki

    What I have learned here is that at this stage judges tend to praise everyone but yesterday they de-ramped both favorites to win! Why is that, simple internal clash within them or still scripted?

    My 1st thought is: if they don’t care much who’s going to win (assuming they got wanted top4) they could address the predictability issue and simply stir the competition up a little bit. It’s still wide open so viewers are kept happy.

    I’m also concerned with love with Amelia, it looks like they don’t think public will dislike the fact that she came back (and went to the final). I don’t know much about british public but that theory launched and widely accepted here is wearing thin. It could also be reverted – imagine the headlines: underdog came back, even went to bottom 2 and still won the show.

    Last thing, as a consequence of his poor performance I swithed my Marcus free bet from max win profit to max loose profit since I don’t think he will win. Given my poor judgements of the outright market this might be good news for Marcus backers 🙂

    • EM

      I’ve long said Amelia winning or doing well is a storyline the producers would love. They’re quite happy to have mud slung at the judges if it means money in the bank. Look the judges got it wrong but my how Amelia and the British public told them so.

      And why is money going in the bank. They did make a mistake, the binned off the most bankable girl on week one. Oops. They misjudged the public and misjudged the contestant. Have a look…

      Janet – they saw an Eliza Doolittle, Florence type act that would give them a bit of a difference to the soul belters that normally do well. They got a strong minded girl who just would never be part of the machine.

      Mischa – they saw a strong, talented, singer who could appeal to the pop and urban markets. They got an over confident, one dimentional act who just didn’t sit well with voters.

      Sophie – always employed as cannon fodder. No threat to the others, minimum fuss when she goes.

      They missed Amelia. Not perfect, not a massive future star but certainly has an album in her. The only problem is her potential market is probably the same as Little Mix’s. That’s why she isn’t portrayed as a strong women or representing girls everywhere. That’s the job of da mix.

      What a crazy series. So predictable you sometimes think they just read the Sofabet articles on a Monday to plan the show for Saturday but so badly run you can bet on a clear out next series. New boss, some new mailable judges and a genuine hunt to find true talent that the public can get passionate about.

  • Lux Lisbon

    @Malcolm (*standing up straight to applaud*)- Bravo, sir, I could not have said it better myself.

    Although, Janet’s ‘Chasing Cars’ was the stand out performance of the whole series. Oh, my giddy God, that voice!

    When she was at her very worst, she was still better than this collection of blubbering schoolgirls, screaming banshees and a guy who has still got his mother’s milk dribbling down his chin.

    PS There really should be some kind of Steward’s Inquiry about the shuffling of the running order in the second round last night. Not very classy at all.

    • sam

      BRAVO…BRAVO….well put,i know this site is about betting and analisis and trying to gage how to make a few quid,but for me its also about analiseing the show as a whole.
      going on what i have seen last night (well not all i did turn over to watch merlin at one point as it was more entertaining)if this is the future of the british music then i think we are in for a rough ride,this years series has been far and away the worst,last night was surposed to be a semi final but looked more like an ordition for a school play all acts failed to impress and not one even came close to convincing me that they are the next big thing for this country.
      i do hope nexts week final can be better than this cus if i was a paying punter going to wembley to see these acts and they performed as dad as that i would demand a refund.

    • Pauline

      Lux. That lovely, lovely girl. That beautiful emotion filled voice. I recorded “Chasing Cars” and keep replaying it. It brings me to tears every time, in a good way. I think Janet is delightful. She was there, a gem in the palm of their hand and they let her go. Someone must be watching over Janet. She has had a lucky escape and will do infinitely better without the X Factor.

  • Lux Lisbon

    Does anybody think the VT they put up of Misha going to visit those sick children in the hospice, was an attempt to show her softer side and put some “heat” under her in an attempt to get her into the final in front of Amelia?

    I Thought Barlow’s comments that she can’t win this now whatever she does because of Bullygate, quite telling – he knows the British public well.

    I may come over as having a heart that has been quarried, but actually I’m quite soft and in that moment I felt sorry and sad for ol’ Misha and I think, in that moment, she realized that she couldn’t win, too.

    • Simon "le happy chat"

      You could be right Lux
      But the public like an underdog and MISHA would not be a surprise if she was annouced first as safe.
      She is the best singer after all.

      If she was announced first as safe, who would be going though?
      Bookies are taking AMELIA seriously- now down to 5/2 in places and if she gets through to the final she will be clear second favourite.

      • Jake

        I really don’t want it to happen Simon but I think Marcus would go. For our sake Misha needs to be bottom of the votes. Every major poll I have looked at: Digital Spy, AOL, Mirror, has Marcus rock bottom. I realise his main voting demographic doesn’t go online but I can’t see them voting for him after the comments for the 2nd song. His only hope is that he picked up enough votes from the gap after his 1st performance.

        • Simon "le happy chat"

          I dont believe MARCUS would go – but then we dont have the voting figures.
          I’m not bothered about on line polls and the like because JANET was a mile ahead of everyone else and crashed out spectacularly, and looking back at her performances, there was an element of “Emperors new clothes” which I never bought into with all her “yodelling”.

          Judges comments can affect the public vote but when there are two performances to judge and less acts, well the GBP are not stupid and will put through the best entertainers.
          These are without doubt AMELIA and MC and I see the final being between the two of them.
          I dont rule out LM going this evening and am having a small punt on it to be so. THE RISK (remember them?) were favourites a few weeks ago – the markets don’t read the voting statisitics. How many times do we need to be reminded of that when the likes of CRAIG, THE RISK, JANET all go and AMELIA with two good songs bounces back.

          • Jake

            Well actually Janet was the bottom of the AOL and mirror polls (which seem to be more based on general public views rather than fanbases online) so that’s why I am worried for Marcus. But I seriously hope you are right. I can’t believe last week I was certain he would be final 2 with a shot at winning, and now he may fall at the final hurdle.

    • sam

      i wanted to slate gary barlow somewhat because of his ill timed comment towards misha,not being one of her suporters but as an outsider, but after relooking at it i wonder if he was actually trying to not get rid of her but to get people to vote in on the masses on sympathy vote,athough i felt at the time his comment was crass and ill timed i do think many people may now give her some sympathy on this alone,was that his plan??i know the GBP dont get her ,bottom2 3 times but maybe they want her in the final but not to win.
      anyone got any stats on mishas sympathy bounce for last night?

  • Lux Lisbon

    It’s funny how things have turned around in a week.

    It doesn’t seem that long ago since the esteemed members of this forum were saying that Amelia would not be allowed to win, because it would make the programme and its format seem quite ridiculous after she had been knocked out a month ago.

    In addition, it seemed like a done deal that it would be Misha to go out first in the final, and LM to outstay MC in the final furlong.

    Now, after last night’s hoopla and shenanigans, I really don’t know where we stand.

    My brain is like soup 😛

  • Rob

    is there going to be an article on the effect of the venue next week?

    i thought a lot of them were visibly nervous this week and may crumble at wembley arena. tbh it’s the only interest i have now – to see if this develops into a real train wreck.

    i’ve just checked my betting records and found i have more coverage on marcus than i first thought with a small stakes dabble at 34.0. so LM or an MC win will return about the same profit, which makes their poor performances last night all the more galling. i can see AM stealing this – or am i just having last minute nerves?

    • Simon "le happy chat"

      Assuming the good ship sails into the final, the article I am looking forward to is whther Daniel and team will stick with him or change to one of the girls.
      I have a saver on AMELIA but have put nothing on LM yet.

    • Pete D

      Rob. I’m in the same boat (also with an astute AL ‘saver’ like our good ship friend Simon’s). Not a great ‘safe’ night for any of them really last night under that immense pressure but at least they were all in the same ‘ship’ and it will serve to toughen them up and raise their game for the final.

      It was just deliberate ‘tough love’ criticism and will only get LM and MARCUS fans and to rally more support.

      Being an ex-pro performer myself I felt every bit of their nerves last night so much admiration is accorded to all (bar one undeserving talentless one who acts like she is is star already without putting the work in of the others).

      It may be worth noting that XF did a last desperate minute ‘image softening’ on AL too like MISHA’s (as well as drowning her voice out in the mix) and that might damage her cred with the stalwarts and floaters.

      PERRIE’s voice alone wiped the floor with AL’s.

      LITTLE MIX and MARCUS have a great consistent track record and a VERY powerful underlying public support (if I know Liverpool well like I do for the latter). So keep the faith and your nerve (I find a good stiff single Malt helps,lol). Unfortunately I am gigging myself tonight so I can’t partake of the juice or see the show live.

      BTW, I am disgusted with the cheap shot ‘nothing story’ from the DAILY STAR on JESY today. I never buy the rag anyway and wouldn’t even use it in the Cludgie if I was totally desperate.

  • Rob

    xfactor tracker puts marcus in trouble
    http://xfactortracker.com/

    • Jack

      But, as has already been stated, Marcus’s main voting demograpic probably won’t be using social networking sites. Can’t believe Barlow if he chose that second song. What was he thinking?

      • Pete D

        Jack. That’s a mystery to me too, but MARCUS claimed it was ‘his’ choice being and old favoutite of his.

        Great song, but they had all week to decide that the intro key was far too low to make an instant impact until it redeemingly powered up later on into his better upper range, (and albeit too late for the famously shortened ruined arrangements that they bastardize them into and over too quickly).

    • Rob

      lots of negs out there speculating trouble for marcus. the blithering idiot, why did he have to lay a rotten egg at this stage? i’m hoping his offline support base will take him through but one comment on the forums has me worried. the poster speculates that marcus was being saved by floating voters voting for the good performances he’s put in week in and week out and that they may not be as motivated to pick up the phone for him this week.

  • R

    I also think Marcus may be in trouble as eventual winner.
    As soon as LM forgot the words, TPTB went into full panic mode to create a sense of public amnesia, re-writing XF past, present and future. It was Marcus who seems to have taken the biggest hit to assist the Mix. He was dumped from the pimp slot and had a poor 2nd performance. Was this because he was moved to an earlier slot at the last minute?
    This also shows that TPTB want LM ahead of MC in the eventual standings.

    That said, it would be a surprise to me if Misha garnered enough votes to push Marcus out tonight.

    I didn’t pay too much attention to the show last night as I find it BORING and a bit awkward and BORING and difficult to work with and a little too predicable. Did I mention it was BORING?

    Janet giving the WOW moment missing from last night’s XF (there are expletives)

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    Ye of little faith!
    Sail on ye good ship!

  • shoulders

    I think you need to be careful with press stories linking them to represent producers intentions, every celebrity interviewed about the press will say most of the stories in the paper are completly made up and contain no facts, that’s why they always quote a “source” or a “friend”, when they name a person as a source take it as fact, press stories may change a person reading it’s opinion, but the producers may have a completely different view.
    Also with the judges seeming to try and dampen the support for Little Mix at the last hurdle, when they have been given them the highest praise, goes back to my earlier posts, that the show is happy just to get the acts they want to release records with to the final, the winner will be chosen by the public at large something which I think at this stage they have less control over, that’s why Matt Cardell won, he appealed to the wider voting demographic, than Cher and One Direction, X Factor was just glad they got them to the final, so they can realease records with them, the same goes for Misha, Amelia and Little Mix, they’ve got them all to the final Syco will be quids in next year regardless of the finishing order .
    Marcus is still looking good to appeal to the voters at large though as increasingly are Little Mix, I’ve got Marcus EW so tonight is the night of my last hurdle for a gauranteed return

  • Boki

    Toby’s figures are quite different from xfactortracker this time. Can’t wait to see the top 3.

  • shoulders

    Also, this time last year I bet successfully that One Direction would be the first act safe, I thinking Little Mix will be first act safe tonight, they say no particular order, but I think they will want to give the impression Little Mix are topping the vote

  • Amelia big mover on betfair today closing in on being joint second fav with Marcus around 9/4-5/2. Misha strong to go: 1/3 chance.

  • Just had to update the results, had picked up a lot of traffic for Marcus Canty in the US show.

    Sorry about that

  • shoulders

    Hi Andrew and Daniel,
    Check out this site it has a useful X Factor poll, last year they called the top 4 order correctly
    click on the “who do you want to win link” then on the who do you want to win tab of the excel sheet

    http://survation.com/2011/12/the-x-factor-semi-final-goodbye-misha-welcome-to-a-tight-3-horse-race/

    • Jack

      That is exceptional. Seems like over 50% or 55+ want Marcus to win and they aren’t likely to be on social networking sites, so I think that he will be safe this week.

      I think.

  • Always fun to look at totally unweighed and badly balanced polling…..

    Sunday Mirror. Percentage (added up in my head, could be wrong!) of people rating each song “Excellent or Good”.

    57 / 59 – Amelia
    40 / 45 – Misha
    47 / 26 – Marcus
    41 / 56 – Little Mix

    Who performed best?

    Amelia 30%
    LM 36%
    Misha 20%
    Marcus 13%

    Digital spy (registered forum users, so take with a pinch of salt)

    LM 44%
    Misha 13%
    Marcus 17%
    Amelia 25%

    Anyone got any data on polls performance in previous weeks? Problem is, OAPs will vote for “My Girl” by phone and not vote in an internet poll. But interesting nonetheless….

  • LM clearly safe 40/1 and getting bigger to go on betfair

  • Donald

    Hi all, great read as usual, been very busy so had a break after Frankie etc. Minded Litte Mix top group winnings. Stayed away from Janet, heart didn’t rule the head which is one thing above all you learn here on Sofabet.

    Will catch up on great reading no doubt this week.

    Who going to win? ready to play.

    Sit out tonight is probably best advise.
    Might have little play but fool and money easily parted if not listed to Sofabet so probably not.

    Oh my man said “told you” I said you were a week out, he said I wasn’t out though.

    I only got back AM so didn’t see the show but will have a look at VT on results show and see what I think but Sofabet far better than any VT.

  • Lux Lisbon

    @R – thanks for the Janet links.

    Awesome sauce!

  • Donald

    Having had quick read, they seem to have mowed down everything for Little Mix without being too obvious doing it.

    So maybe they know Amelia in danger zone, another one out of the way.

    Can’t go against Marcus with him since the beginning anyway thanks to Sofabet so only value is Amelia. Small bet for the fun of it but waiting for VT. Misha Marcus and The Big Mix for the final maybe?

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    There has been a last minute punt on LM to go
    I took them three hours ago at 12’s for a modest stake. They are down to 11/2 with PPower.
    They probably wont go but this betting shape is worth remembering if they remain in the competition

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    Kelly may be an awful judge but she’s a really good performer.
    Like to see Tulisa sing and dance like that!
    Hah!
    Fat chance!

  • Colin

    Well here we go. Good luck to all those that have bets on.

  • Jack

    TGFT

    Well done Simon, I respect your confidence!

    So, next week… I genuinely can’t call it!

  • Colin

    Did Dermot make a slip while he spoke to LM, he said “you thought that you were going home” then said “10,000 people” then quickly changed the conversation.

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    Well Daniel/Andrew
    MARCUS now third favourite behind LITTLE MIX 11/10, AMELIA LIILEY 2/1 ish and MARCUS about 9/4.

    Are you going to stay on the bridge or abandon “The good ship”?

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