X Factor 2011 Week 6 Post-Mortem: Death knell for Brucknell

Adversity killed the Kitty. As we told you after last night’s show, producers had done everything in their power to stop her bouncing out of the bottom two for the second time, and the latest hatchet job proved as successful as previous ones this series. On the night that Lady Gaga looked like she had robbed Kitty of her leotard, her place in the show went too.

Up against the more marketable Misha B, who had been given every assistance last night (except for her cameo in Kitty’s VT), this was another predictable sing-off result. Once again, the act to be ditched was sent on first in the showdown, a pattern that helped calm my nerves as I lumped on Kitty to go at odds of around 1.2 for a four-figure profit.

We hope you are also collecting tonight on the 7/4 about Louis to be the first mentor to lose his acts which we pointed to earlier in the series.

Props to many of our commenters again, where the consensus seemed to be that Misha would join Kitty in the sing-off. Ganix for example pointed out that “The regional pimping of Misha came across as somewhat desperate – the word “Manchester” was used no fewer than 11 times during her segment”.  The absence of deadlock suggested that Misha may have finished bottom of the vote.

The continued damning of Janet Devlin was the other main feature of the results show. After stories appeared in today’s papers that the Ulster lass was barely speaking with her mentor, Kelly Rowland was notably negative in post-performance VT about her own act.

With another story claiming that she had won the phone poll every week appearing in the Daily Star, which has a surprisingly good track record for these leaks, punters could be forgiven for being a little confused about what’s going on. Sofabet will be addressing the Devlin conundrum in an article this coming week.

We now have a six-runner field, only one of whom is at double figure odds, and a new favourite, Amelia Lily, who wasn’t in the race a week ago. Two of the most marketable acts in our opinion, Misha B and Little Mix, are the longest priced of those six runners. It’s certainly more open than any other series we have witnessed.

We’ll be back with more in-depth thoughts, as ever, when the dust has settled. In the meantime, what did you think of tonight’s result, and how does it bode for the rest of the series? Do let us know below.

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62 comments to X Factor 2011 Week 6 Post-Mortem: Death knell for Brucknell

  • Boki

    The thing calming my nerves tonight was indeed Louis 1st out bet that finally came in, cheers 🙂

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    Six runner field.
    MISHA, CRAIG, LITTLE MIX cannot win
    Final of MARCUS, JANET and AMELIA looks likely subject to any shanningans.

    Good ship MARCUS sails quietly on but when the going gets touch will give us a run for our money against any of them.
    When its two songs a week viewers will get to see his broad range and anything can happen in a final.

  • annie

    I’m so bored this year. The set up of saturday nights clearly points out one of the acts in the b2 and the sing of is ridiculously predictable. the act to perform first and stand on dermots right goes, the votes from the judges are asked in the same order. Hardly any excitement. I find none of the acts particularly likeable or even that memorable. I don’t understand why they try to kill off lil janet, I’m not a big fan of her and wasn’t wowed even by her first audition, but I actually think she is the most memorable image and sound wise. I’m sure the very questionable bringing back of amelia is also to do with janet falling out of grace. Could it be that she was actually on the track to win and the Gary Barlow penned winners single is not in any way suited to her? Maybe that’s why craig is pushed so hard, after all he is a little gary barlow.

  • Dug

    Of the two longest priced runners, I think it is Misha who faces the most danger. Little Mix have mostly been at the bottom of the punting pack but they are yet to hit the sing-off and could theoretically be doing better than Craig or anyone else for that matter. Suggestions that they are going to display more technical skill next week are encouraging for their future. This clip from the Xtra Factor hints at the kind of potential the girls wield:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4pOOqpJOEo

    Performed right in a decent slot with vindicating comments from Kelly could propel Little Mix forward. If that doesn’t do it, it’s now late enough in the competition that a first appearance in the bottom two is no real shame and could offer more help than hindrance (as you guys pointed out) in order to propel the girls to a third, or even cheeky second, place that we believe the producers want for them.

    Misha on the other hand seems irreparably out of the running, her sympathy bounce having lasted just a week. I still blame Bullygate for the decline in her popularity. I never imagined her in the final but I would have liked to have seen her get this far on her own terms with her style and dignity intact. I now question whether her marketability has dwindled. She’s seen as too hard for a winner but may now equally appear too self-compromising and apologetic to hold up her fierce signature style in the real world.

    I believe Janet’s regional base and general following will see her safe at least to the final 3. That only leaves Craig, Marcus and Amelia and I think their places in the competition, particularly in relation to one another, are the hardest to call. I really wouldn’t want to make any judgements about Amelia until we get to see her in the context of a normal week. What will she sing? What will her story be?

    If producers had any sense, they should be gently wearing Janet down for another week but focusing on the assassination of Craig Colton, who is about as much use to the competition as packet of custard creams.

    • Curtis

      Can’t wait for the Janet article! I’d like to see it from a neutral point of view for some clarity, because I struggle to separate my betting head from my personal opinion head when it comes to her. I considered lumping on her to be eliminated at 9s, but thankfully talked myself out of it and instead went for the obvious Kitty.

      I think over about 20 comments here, I’ve said everything I need to say about the Janet situation. The producers want her gone, and I don’t get why.

      Little Mix are being set up for huge pimping next week. First, they were the last act to be called out in the results tonight which always encourages a small but healthy boost in the voting. Second, Tulisa has emphasised several times on Xtra Factor (and I think on the main show as well) that next week they’re going to be “something different, something special”. It’s not a long shot to expect that something special to come from the pimp slot – it usually does.

  • Jack

    About Kitty, I do wonder whether, accidently the technical difficulties hurt Kitty a lot last nite. If people tuned in at 8:15 and saw the technical difficulties, surely most would tune out and return i about 15 minutes. Possibly a few of them overshot it and missed Kitty’s performance? Who knows?

    I’m still baffled by producers not choosing a boy between Marcus and Craig. As the weeks go on and they are both still in the competition, the Liverpool vote will continue to be split so they need to pick one soon. By rights, Marcus should get the pimp slot next week as the only one not to go last so far, but producers will do whats best for them. I expect Craig to be B2 next week.

    Misha B will be the favorite to go next week, I think. A poor slot in the running order would signify a death knell for the Manc (She’s from Manchester, haven’t you heard?) and I think producers will drop her next week after much pimping still saw her fall in the B2.

    Marcus should still be safe next week I feel so long as his performance isn’t the same as the last two weeks. He is still going strong.

    I think that, by calling Little Mix’s name last, they were trying to motivate LM’s fanbase. Whilst Little Mix have been safe every week, I think they are miles behind Marcus and Janet atm.

    I do wonder about Janet. My main question about her if she really is trouncing everyone in the phone vote would be why would producers dampen her support? If Janet has been Plan A, then wouldn’t they want to keep her going strong. I will watch a few more weeks before calling it either way.

    Amelia is an interesting case study. I think that it is likely that she won the phone vote this week, but that will be off the back of a massive publicity campaign, including a pimp slot and terrific judge’s comments. We shall see how she does next week in what will be, presumably a worse slot and maybe with a song that doesn’t play to her strengths. Next week will tell us if producers really do want her as a potential winner.

    I think, though, that with 6 acts left, it is ridiculous that there are three girls left. To maintain a sense of fair play, I think that one of them will have to go next week, and based on what we have seen so far, it will probably be Misha B.

    My prediction for next week:

    Bottom Two: Craig
    Bottom Two: Misha B

    Eliminated: Misha B

  • Dan

    I took a chance on Janet going at 9/1 with a back up of Misha at 7/1 so I’ve been wrong on just about everything this week!
    Watching the elimination show, two things stood out:

    1. Janet had a face like a slapped arse throughout, so something is clearly up and perhaps the rumours of mentor trouble are true given Kelly’s negative backstage VT of her performance.
    2. Mischa is in trouble – if she can’t stay out of the bottom two with the pimping she got last night then she can’t be long for the competition.

    Perhaps Janet really is nailing the voting every week against the wishes of the producers – I suspect she appeals to the same sort of demographic that Matt Cardle did which may well bring in the votes but won’t translate into the “number one or bust” sales expected from an X-Factor winner.

    • Rob

      i took exactly the same bets except i got misha at a longer price – what good it did me. first losing week. blah!

    • taichou

      Devlin is huge around the world… she has fan base in brasil, italy, france,us i have a friend in germany, and last week he linked me a video to check out a girls voice he has fallen in love with and it was Devlins Fix you :)) i was so confused

    • Dug

      Agreed on Janet being the new Matt – as has been my opinion from day one. The downfall of the X-factor happened when the focus slid from popstardom to serious ‘n’ authentic musicianship. It’s primetime ITV, people. Sometimes I want to shake the British public and remind them that they’re supposed to be electing the new Leona or JLS – not the new Ed Sheeran or Florence and the Machine.

  • EM

    Once again the X Factor elimination has been easier to guess than the correct answer to their missing word competitions. And that’s easy.

    As always I look at the producers going for a marketable top 3 or 4. Maybe 3 this year with the poor talent pool they’re fishing in. I’d say the top 3 most marketable are Little Mix, Janet and Mischa but I’m not sure the public will play ball. Why?

    We saw the slaying of Jonny, Sophie and Kitty some weeks out as their votes were softened by performance, staging and comments. Exactly the same thing is happening to Janet right now. You’d have to conclude she’s being lined up for the chop next week but she’s never hit bottom two yet and the stories are she’s one popular girl with phone voters.

    Mischa has had the X Factor kitchen sink thrown her way over the past couple of weeks with a make over, obvious coaching in coming across humble and the sudden discovery of a family and area she comes from. Yet still she hits bottom two. As we’ve seen from previous series the show rarely gives up and she could be saved time and time again.

    Little Mix have also had use of the kitchen sink when Mischa’s not been using it. With judges comments well over stating their musical ability they’re keen for them to progress far.

    My feelings on Amelia Lilly not being a marketable product are defined by the fact we don’t know her as an act yet. It will be interesting to see if the X Factor PR machine cranks into life this week on her behalf so we get to know her better.

    If I were a record company with a choice of launching Craig or Marcus on the world I’d take Marcus every time over Craig but he’s starting to come over a little Ray Quinn right now and needs a recording artist performance rather than a west end one to convince me.

    Next weeks a tough one to call. Janet bottom two? Mischa safe thanks to another sympathy enduring vt? Craig to go? Amelia Lilly to go?

    The clues will all be there that’s for sure and thanks to betsfactor.com who’s spotted another one. On their elimination weeks both Sophie and Kitty were shown to have rather crappy lukewarm support back in their hometowns.

    If you see a man in Ireland with a sandwich board then lump on Janet!

    • Andrew

      Really good point about Sophie and Kitty. Must admit I was just pleased at that point to see that someone other than Amelia has a supportive dad 🙂

  • mark (mapps)

    Did anyone notice betfairs activity in the bottom 2/elim markets

    Bottom 2: Misha 2.4 / Janet 3.85
    Elim: Misha 10.5 / Janet 5.5

    Suggesting Misha is bottom of the public vote and would drop into the bottom two – but be saved!?

  • Pata17

    I think Kitty was bottom of the poll.I reckon they would have loved to get rid of Misha,but couldn’t justify a 3-1 vote.Disagree about Misha being pushed positively….Her appearance in Kitty’s VT plus her slot to follow Amelia,indicates to me they would have been happy for her to go.

  • tpfkar

    1. Lousy week for me; I had Misha to go, and was 10 minutes too late to get home when I could have safely laid off for a profit. Only ray of sunshine was that someone kindly backed Tulisa 1st mentor eliminated to cancel out my bet at the last minute, so I got rid of most of my worst bet unexpectedly.

    2. My analysis of Toby’s twitter stats proved spot on – check the last thread if you missed my confident prediction that CRAIG was ahead of MISHA on the vote – not a bad on the spot job and I’ll see if I can work on something a little more sophisticated over this week, in the hope of a full prediction next week.

    3. How can Misha recover? Not sure – they can’t pimp her any more (although showing her stealing Kitty’s song was a daft mistake) and in trying to redeem her harsh appearance, she seems to lack an identity. Cast her off, or another sing-off save.

    4. However much the producers have screwed up this year, they’ve been uncannily good at getting rid of the act they want.

    5. Unless she’s an awkward Ulster girl – really looking forward to the Janet article as she seems the key to the final weeks; if this is the first week she wasn’t top of the youtube views then things are moving.

  • mark (mapps)

    Ok question — this is the second time Misha has been in the bottom two, so we can write her off as a potential winner-if you hadn’t already

    noone has ever won x factor that has been in the bottom two, and she has now been in it twice – and it seems like bottom of PV-so she wouldn’t have the support to win

    with regards to next week, will she get another sympathy bounce? or is it too late in the competition for her to get a sympathy bounce..plus she’s already had one?!

    Amelia Lilly – not entirely sure about – she’s clearly got support which enabled her to quite easily get back in to the show on the vote, and I assume these same people will be voting for her to keep her in for a bit

    but will their votes alone be enough? will Amelia be able to steal votes from other contestants..i cant decide on that.surely by now people have made up who they like/dont be it 1/2 acts they followed from week 1 and get behind..would they switch camp and get behind Amelia now? Given a bad slot/song should see her in b2

    • Kate

      Mischa has been in the bottom 2 twice and the show is doing its utmost to wreck Janet, which suggests to me that Amelia is the only girl now who can win. A conspiracy theorist might suggest that they don’t want a girl to win this year, but I can’t imagine they want another Leon, Joe or Matt at the top and Craig or Marcus have done nothing to suggest that they could have a big breakthrough career.

      Which would make Little Mix the Chosen Ones – or maybe they were the Least Worst Plan B after the charismatic bad boy the show had pegged to win turned out to be a charmless man-skank.

      • mark (mapps)

        Thing is, as said before by many others including myself…Amelia winning would feel so wrong,no? entering the competition in wk6/10 is a huge advantage in terms of reaching week 10 if she is viewed and treated ion the same way as the rest

        but in reality surely people wont be able tp get behind her due this headtsrat and seeming an undeserved winner as she has avoided 5 or so eliminations?

        Plus as I said above at this late stage in thew competition surely people have made up their minds on who their favorites are? While Amelia did win the vote to come back..the number o votes in that could be miniscule compared to the votes to eliminate and so might not mean anything in terms of keeping her in>?!

        • Boki

          There is a contradiction with Amelia which can go both ways. As many pointed here “entering the competition in wk6/10 is a huge advantage in terms of reaching week 10”. On the other hand she has huge disadvantage that “at this late stage in thew competition surely people have made up their minds on who their favorites are”.

          So which of the two reasonings will prevail in public opinions?

          • Chatterbox5200

            There is less chance of her being accused of being a one-trick pony or asked to do something different though, as many of the others have faced (Sophie, Janet, Marcus but shockingly not Craig), as she will have performed far less than anyone else.

          • mark (mapps)

            I really cant decide. I think people will have already made up their minds on who they like and it will act as a disadvantage meaning she cant win — had she been there from wk1 she’d be in a better position to win imo

            the public like a deserving winner!

  • nugget

    Well a losing week for me….had a little on Misha to go but not much. Thought it was between Misha, Janet and Kitty. So just a little fun bet. It does look like it don’t matter what they do Janet will still get the votes…..not many would have survived the bad press, VTs, bad comments etc that Janet has had.

    Just one small thing….

    Amelia Lily in Sundays “walking on sunshine” X factor mime……this is recorded midweek and lip synced. Do you reckon they made 4 different recordings of it?? …..doubt it 🙂

    Oh and I still have a spare ticket for next Sat live show if anyone wants to come to Wembley and queue for 9 hours with me.

  • nugget

    Next weeks theme…before I start punting…anyone know it??
    Also 2 songs each next week??

  • Pete D

    Hi Kate.
    There are no conspiricy theories involved with LITTLE MIX. They are being carefully groomed and packaged for greatness along with MARCUS. XF need well paying and ongoing post show record contracts to please their bank manager.

    Just notice that EVERY single week LM are constantly being ‘pimped’, either openly or through other guests, at every opportunity right from show 1, as XF have made it as clear as morning dew that they want a girl band to win in order to break the same ol’ same ol’ result of solo acts.

    They know the gap in the market for them and thier support and investment in LM is now very apparent.

    LITTLE MIX have been on test as a ‘quiet’ and hopeful alternative result of a ‘plan A’ (which is working very VERY well so far).

    I was initially scared at AMELIA SILLY’s late entry into the race but I think that XF will soon dilute her hopes into her own ‘little mix’ of pink hair dye and orange spray tan dishwater.
    She won’t win, but they DO need an alternative 3rd place female anyway for a variety finish if they can’t cudgel JANET into a controllable submission with their own Irish Shillelagh (or just get welcome shut of the ginger witch).

    This week the clear support message was through the very current and influencial ONE DIRECTION to their own ‘obedient’ and massive female teen fan base (where ALL were unanimous on an LM win in the ITV 2 XF extra …and that was TWICE in the whole evening’s show now).
    JLS and and THE RISK opinions too.

    It’s just that some of us have spotted it long before the bookies caught on to the trend (some at odds of over 100 and others at 66 etc).

    All these big win prices are gone now, BUT it may be prudent to look at alternative well priced straight forecasts spread across with whatever other acts that you feel confident with.
    I got them a few weeks back with my original champion MARCUS in ‘reversed’ combos at 66 too.

    With only about 4 weeks to go now and with dwindling competitors (and odds), NOW is the time to study and to take your educated guesses (with the help of all the experienced opinions of SOFABET editors and members who hunt down public voting trends for you and who can present logical reasoning behind the twists and conspiracy theories ).

    I was clueless about the ‘real’ way XF worked until I found this thread and thus earned some small winnings due to it (as I am not a big gambler).

    However, it will be a very nice ‘early booked long odds’ win Crimbo for me for a very small investment if my homework pays off, with what I have been taught here (about interesting ongoing alternative bets other than just limited win ones and a long wait until the final to cash them).

    If I lose, then I’ll still be sat front stage to McCartney in Liverpool on Dec 20th (part paid for already by my SOFABET XF winnings).
    Gook luck too Kate !!

    • nugget

      Hi Pete

      LM for a top 3 finish at 5/4 is an absolute banker in my honest opinion.

      Missed the massive prices,respect to those that did, as I was slow to catch on, but got a decent bet on at 13/8.

      Even now thinking of topping up at 5/4.

      • Pete D

        Nugget. Cheers ! Free money is free money (if you have it spare to lose and not miss). Just can’t see a knockout before final 3 for them anyway.

        However, just on that slight off-chance (as gambling is gamling too), for what I already have on them at those big 66 odds, my investment is already in and I can’t afford to risk any more right now for what little it would pay back at those short odds (compared to if the big ones come in). At my stakes it would only be a tenner, compared to a possible 1.5k on all LM win bets, with MARCUS 2nd forecasts. £700+ visa versa.

        BTW, I would love that spare ticket to XF if I can raise spare funds for train from Cumbria and some cheap digs I know in Wembley. Will let you know, if your offer is still on later in week.
        I’ll bring the rotten Tomatoes and poisoned blowdarts for the pink and ginger witches, LOL.

      • Pete D

        Hell Nugget, just had a look at those t3 finish odds.
        There is only a Gnats chuff between all of them (and I wonder if that possibly reflects the true tighter voting figures too ?).

        It’s getting serious now and we need a few Becher’s Brooks to unseat a few riders.

      • dan12

        I’m a bit wary of the top 3 market right now. Last year’s final had four contestants in it, and the odds on betfair win market for “any other act” and “the risk” suggest there’s a fair bit of speculation that we haven’t seen the last twist of the series yet.

        If it turns out that the final has four acts in it, then the top 3 market could be decided by one stunning or nightmare performance. Given that there seem to be no qualms about changing contestants’ arrangements 20 minutes before the performance, I’m currently playing on the win market only.

  • tpfkar

    I’ve spent a nerdy evening trying to come up with a program/model to turn Toby’s twitter stats into a vote order predictor, taking into account the differences between how fans of the acts use twitter.

    Taking as sources:
    -Toby’s data
    -The bottom 2 results as given on the show
    -The Star leaks (crucially including Kitty almost in B2 week 2, but also Janet winning every vote ahead of Risk, Johnny, Johnny & Marcus)

    I’ve come up with something which matches almost perfectly.

    Exceptions: In week 3 (Sophie went over Misha) I can’t get The Risk off the bottom, but Sophie and Misha next. And my double elimination bottom 4 were Kitty < Risk < Frankie < Johnny.

    But apart from those two, it gets the right top/bottom 2 every time. I'll do some more work on it this week and bring youtube stats in, but to offer something tonight, here's what I make this week's voting order:

    AMELIA*
    JANET / MARCUS
    LITTLE MIX
    CRAIG
    MISHA / KITTY

    * Bit of a guess as there's no reference for her yet – will be able to have a better guess in a couple of weeks.

  • Pete D

    Re-Kitty’s impromptu little parting ditty.

    Did anyone notice the pure brute force and speet at which bad mannered Dermot yanked that microphone out of her hand ?

    I bet he wouldn’t dare do that to Lady GA GA. She would have slapped him in the face with a slab of Beef off her dress.

  • Henry VIII

    I too look forward to the Janet article. The program’s manipulations are more reckless this year and more incompetent. Gary calling Janet boring on her birthday actually gives Janet votes. Just to say “boring” is too subjective to be of any critical use and just plain unprofessional. Janet’s mentor being cold with her will also help her votes. So they are achieving the opposite effect to their plan, if derailing her is their plan.

    There are two unknowns which could change things. The first is when Little Mix leave, because after that who will the program support and who, if anyone, will they continue to attack? In the final weeks the producers could give up attacks on people who have stubborn public support and then just go with the flow to an extent. If memory serves they’ve done that in the past.

    The second unknown is the return of Simon Cowell. A close friend of Cowell said that he will return for one show at least (reported in the Daily Star 12/11) and it was also reported weeks ago that ITV were desperate for him to return to arrest the decline in viewers. If he comes back he could well replace a judge and/or oppose the remaining dominant judges’ stance, as this would make “great TV”.

    Simon “le happy chat” I wouldn’t be so sure that “CRAIG cannot win”. He will have a lot of support from the older viewers which won’t show up online. I was very impressed with him on Saturday considering he literally did not rehearse once. He’s one of the few that don’t let nerves get to them. I was also impressed that he had packed his bags on Thursday, said his goodbyes, and was on his way home only to have the producers rush Gary to the house to beg him to stay and put more effort into him.

    At the start Craig gave glimpses of what could have developed into smugness but now we can see his personality is actually one of attractive and mature confidence coupled with some necessary humility.

  • Rob

    also looking forward to the janet article. hope you include an analysis of what the show hopes to gain by eliminating her? she surely would go down well in the states where being irish is a badge of honour. also do the judges get to see the voting figures at all as gary borelow seemed genuinely surprised that janet got through which leads me to believe he doesn’t know the depth of support he’s attepting to overcome.
    i also think craig’s support is deep enough to get him to the final. if marcus’s support is greater than his it’s not interenet based. i’ve seen some interesting internet traffic data recently which seems to suggest only craig can beat janet but i need to make more sense of it before i post anything.

    • Simon "le happy chat"

      Hi Rob

      I have to disagree and suggest CRAIG will not win this competition- not a cat’s chance in hell= and I do not expect him to get to the final. Why? Because he’s a one trick pony ie he sings a ballad very well but that is it- his whole profile is otherwise very boring and his gurning most distracting.
      I note what Henry VIII says about CRAIG having support along older voters, this is clearly true but he has had the pick of pimping and judges inexcusably over the top comments to help him – I dont think there has been one negative comment about his performance- not yet but there is still time. There is only room for one boy in a three act final and on the basis the producers will want to put on the most entertainment it has to be MARCUS who is streets ahead of CRAIG. Note MARCUS has had little pimping because he doesnt need it yet – wait until he is given a ballad from the pimp spot and he will smash them because he can sing better than anyone left in the competition.
      The girl in the final will be AMELIA and probably JANET unless they can pimp LITTLEMIX enough to get them there as well? Maybe a 4 act final but MISHA and BISCUIT BOY will be gone by then.

      Not jumping ship now — the good ship MARCUS in which hold are so many slips from SOFABET is sailing along quite nicely thank you very much.

    • lolhart

      I’ve always believed the judges know who came bottom of the public vote. It was too much of a coincidence last year that every time Katie was in the bottom 2 but not bottom of the public vote the judges took it to deadlock. The other times they voted 3-1. There are other examples as well, like when Louis voted to save Paige over Cher despite being a fan of his and her biggest critic.

  • Rob

    saw over at digitalspy that misha b was on this morning with kelly rowland and it looks like they are going for one almighty push this week to get her through to the next round with a full week of engagements. can’t confirm this story though. if it’s true i expect they will target JD again to fall, but they really need to give up on misha now. if they are so convince she can s3ell records get her signed and start recording but i think force feeding the public is dragging the show to greater depths!

    • Nugget

      The funny thing is Rob I beleive that Kellys blatent favouritism for Misha and ignoring Janet could backfire badly and have the opposite effect to that intended. Misha is already not particularly popular and is not picking up the votes, if they hype her too hard it will look desperate and stop viewers voting for her.
      On the otherhand the more Janet is seen to be pushed aside and treated unfairly, the more likely she is to build on the regional support she already has and thee more likely she is to pick up sympathy votes and multi voting from her fan base, thus keeping her out of bottom 2.
      Having said that Janet does look as though she would rather go home and I think she is regretting entering at all, it is a lot of pressure for a 16yo, this is not a talent contest, it has become a big brother type popularity contest.

      • Rob

        from a betting point of view it gets me worried as it appears that they are using a sledgehammer to crack a nut (albeit a very tough one), and that will make me financially worse off, but i’m also starting to feel uncomfortable with it as a person.

  • Matt

    Kitty going was hardly a shock, and I was pleased to cash in on Louis as first judge out.

    Misha in bottom two, as many have said, sounds her death knell. I am in two minds as I’m sure the producers want a reasonable finish for her.

    If she gets the sympathy bounce and survives next week outside the bottom two (which is by no means a sure thing) she’d be final five and if she’s then saved from bottom two in a sing off she could leave in forth place. That might suit (think Cher last year).

    If she ends up bottom two next week it’s a tricky one. They could save her against an act which has never been bottom two against her third time, hoping to scrape her into fourth. However, they might decide no sympathy bounce means a ‘the audience doesn’t connect, sorry darling’ cutting of the strings instead. My gut feeling is she would be saved in one more sing off against virtually anybody but Little Mix.

    Little Mix are a clear favourite of the producers. I suspect they will not be doing the best in the public vote though so may need a save in a sing off pre the final four. If Misha is scraped home in fourth then Little Mix are a guaranteed third or higher for me. A really interesting situation would be Misha/Little Mix bottom two next week or the week after, which I certainly don’t rule out. Little Mix to be saved of course but what then for them?

    I see their problem as not appealing to much of the core X Factor voting demographic. High energy urban girl band is not, I suspect, for the mature voter. However as was pointed out above in the Xtra Factor One Direction unanimously identified them as winner and we may see more of this in the media to try and bolster their vote. We may also see a game changer, a really good ballad or something to capture another demographic. This could lead to a finals performance which gives each demographic a track to please them.

    Janet is clearly not favoured and had a face like a slapped arse last night. I suspect she’s getting huge regional voting and it may be very difficult to get shot of her if so. I think she may not drop into bottom two at all before finals as the show has thrown all sorts of crap her way and she has breezed on through. To get rid of her they need a bullygate or Frankie moment, neither seems likely. I suspect they’ll try a hatchet job involving a public (on show) breakdown in her relationship with Kelly.

    I think she will make the finals now though. Sadly.

    I think Amelia will be heavily pimped for a while to assist with the ‘get rid of Janet’ movement. If you are the type of voter who normally votes for female vocalists but you don’t want an urban girl band (and consequently aren’t voting for a sometimes rapping reformed bully) she and Kitty were your only choice.

    Kitty came across as desperately needy, unstable and fame hungry hence was never going to last. However, the girl could sing. Amelia offers a rock chick alternative to the irritating Janet if you like your female vocalists. If she doesn’t do a bit of her Katy Perry Impersonator in the next week or two I’ll be shocked. However, she’s not got the strongest vocal in my opinion and may suffer if she hits a few bum notes in her performances.

    Bringing me to the last two boys. I still suspect Craig is favoured by producers over Marcus. However, the leaks suggest Marcus is doing better in votes. I find this one hardest to call – I hope Marcus makes final 3 (and possibly wins) as I have a little cash on these. However I remain to be convinced that he would be saved in a sing off against one of the producers’ choices (e.g. Little Mix, perhaps Misha, maybe Craig and at this stage possibly even Amelia). The line could be that he has got samey and is more a stage singer than a recording artist.

    For me, then, Little Mix sure fire final three unless their voting is so horrible they end up fourth (I think they would be saved in sing offs until then regardless). Hence I suspect Misha might be assisted to fourth place if it can be managed to guarantee Little Mix a top three if their votes aren’t the strongest. However, Misha may be cut loose if she doesn’t get a sympathy bounce out of the bottom two next week.

    Sadly I see Janet as final three unless the knives are seriously sharpened and she is actively and strongly criticized on the show fast. Getting a massive strop on camera (maybe with Kelly) would certainly be interesting pre song VT in coming weeks…

    Leaving Amelia, Marcus and Craig. For me any of them could end up in the final and, to a large extent, it’s in the producer’s hands as to how well they are treated and pimped. I’d bet on them wanting a boy in the final so Amelia fifth or sixth for me (or into the final if Misha B doesn’t make it that long). That means if Misha is to survive to fourth Amelia or a boy goes next week. Amelia’s vote is seriously unpredictable and how she is treated next Saturday will tell us a great deal about the producers intentions. I say one of the boys, Amelia and Misha to go 6/5/4 with Little Mix, Janet and a boy in the final.

    All of which makes for interesting betting. I look forward to the Janet article hugely!

  • Dave T

    Did anyone else think there was a bit too much begging for Little Mix votes this weekend? Could it be a sign that they’re not pulling in that many votes?

  • Rob

    good analysis matt. sacrificing misha b at the semi final stage would seem like a good plan but i think they would also sacifice amelia lily at that stage also. (of course if they can maneuvre janet into that position, all the better for them). i still can’t fathom where MC’s and CC’s support is coming from… it’s certainly not from people who use the internet so it must be mostly mature voters imo.

  • Nugget

    “IF” Little Mix hit the bottom 2

    LMix Vs Misha (LM would win)
    LMix Vs Craig (LM would win)
    Lmix Vs Janet (LM would win)
    Lmix Vs Marcus (hard to call)
    Lmix Vs Amelia (hard to call)

    Does anyone disagree??? This is why they are a great bet to finish in top 3 , even IF they do hit bottom 2 they will be saved against most.

    • Rob

      imo LM would win everytime, that’s why i’m very comfortable with my ew. possible scenario is LM bottom 2 nest week and saved, sympathy bounce the next, bottom 2 week after and saved again. two saves is not very controversial imo.

      • Boki

        Is there a historical evidence that sympathy bounce also works in such a late stage?

        The other question is: how many singoffs can we expect till the end?

        Looking on wiki last one was always on top6 except last year on top5. Does it mean we will get 2 singoffs max ?

        • fiveleaves

          JLS were B2 at this stage.

          They then finished 2nd the week after and topped the semi final vote the week after.

          They would have won with Cowell’s help

        • Andrew

          Hi Boki, Olly Murs and Ben Mills, like JLS, rode a sympathy bounce from week 7’s bottom 2 all the way to 2nd place.

          There is an argument that if you’re not going to win, it’s a good thing to have a singoff save at around this stage – could be the difference between fizzling out in 5th and bouncing to the final. Wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is the thinking with LM this week or next.

          We should definitely get singoffs in week 7 (with six acts) and I would guess probably also week 8 (with five acts), though they’ve left that to the public vote before. Last year was the first time they’d had a week 9 singoff, and the strong suspicion is that it was to get Cher into the final above Mary Byrne. So I guess we wait and see whether they feel the need for one this year, but this time it would have only four acts so it would be without precedent in that sense.

    • Curtis

      Little Mix will win a sing-off over any prospective rival I believe. What they want (assuming that they’re not in the top 3 of voting) is to enter a sing-off at the final 5 stage to ensure a sympathy bounce for the semi-final. However, it’s not a given that they will do a sing-off at the final 5 stage. They did last year, but that was the exception rather than the rule. I think if Little Mix fall into the bottom 2 next week then they’re in trouble (in terms of making the final).

      Of course, it could be that they are placing in the top 3 of voting. I sort of doubt it though. The producers are pushing them so hard that I have to think that they need the support they’re getting.

  • Boki

    Needless to say that I’m also excited about Janet’s article. What I would like too see there very much is an odds prognosis if she ever gets into top3/top4, I have no feeling when is the right moment to hedge the unfortunate winner bet…

  • Pete D

    DANIEL. Twitter figures on ITV2 XF EXTRA. (a little competion was run for guests to guess who had what). My recorder is bust, so can anyone copy those figures down and post them please ?

    And DANIEL, could you please shed any experienced light on the importance of this too and if they bear any relationship ?

    They seem imortantant for the very reason that they could be a fairly accurate reflection of how folk are voting and supporting their acts.
    Thus too THE STAR report could be right about JANET sweeping the board with votes.

    With JANET’S Twitter follower figures running 1st at around 224,000 (as I remember with MARCUS 2nd etc) and LITTLE MIX with around half that at the bottom (below MISHA even), that is quite a gap considering the text happy/pc messaging mad teens who are following LM.

  • tpfkar

    I’ve now got a graph of my estimates for the phone votes throughout the competition.

    Headlines:

    1) Janet is coasting and in no danger of elimination, although I think this is the first week she got beaten (by Amelia)

    2) Craig is on an Aiden Grimshaw death slide

    3) Sympathy bounces have been huge; I have Frankie 3rd in the voting after he was bottom 2.

    4) Little Mix were close to the edge first two weeks but now safe.

    5) If they pimp Little Mix as planned next week, bet of the week = Craig and Misha bottom 2.

    Would there be interest in a guest article going through in a bit more detail?

    • Matt

      That’s all extremely interesting. Any chance of you sticking the graph online somewhere for us to have a look at? Sounds like a lot to think about. Anything else aside it will make very interesting comparison after the finals when the voting figures come out.

    • Andrew

      Hi tpfkar – will drop you an email! 🙂

  • fiveleaves

    As for Janet.
    I believe her support is narrow and regional like Eggnogs and will decline as a percentage of the whole naturally with very little help from the judges.

  • fiveleaves

    As a big Little Minxes supporter from the start I totally agree with Pete D too.

    I believe they are plan A and TPTB would love to break the group hoodoo. Especially with one with such obvious commercial appeal.
    They’d be saved over anyone imo.

    • Pete D

      fiveleaves.
      Good feeling on these girls building up here now. Evidently next week will blow everyone’s socks off judging by the ‘close harmony’ thing they are planning (and nicely timed too before the final big push). Tulisa is a ‘bang on’ mentor.
      I have seen some taster vids on their facebook and YouTube.

      Even Kelly said they match EN VOGUE quality (and that is saying something coming from a copmetitor Judge).
      Could be a real nice Crimbo for us LITTLE MIX faithfulls.

      • fiveleaves

        Indeed Pete D.
        Exciting times ahead hopefully.

        The competition is wide open and I don’t think it’s going too far to say they could be favourites if they nail a decent ballad/slower number on saturday.

        Especially if the lukewarm comments for Janet and Marcus continue.

        We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves though.

  • AlexK

    Daniel,

    I am presuming you are not betting through betfair to get these 4 figure profits as surely there are not many people on their that would lay that bet?

    Thanks

    • Daniel

      Hi AlexK, actually that whole sum was made on Betfair. I’m assuming that some people genuinely thought Kitty might stay or were happy to risk it at odds of 5-1. Plenty of others were probably hedging bets they had already made on her being eliminated, thus locking in a profit either way.

      • AlexK

        So you make multiple smaller bets?

        Not putting in say 1k to go out and someone to bet she stays in for 1k

        Sorry for my newbie questions

        • Daniel

          Hi AlexK, Betfair doesn’t work like that. When you are taking a price or offering one that is taken, you don’t know how many people are on the other side of the transaction, it could be many people getting involved or just one. I just take what I can.

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