X Factor 2011 Week 5 Update: Goodbye Kitty?

This week’s double elimination meant it was even more important for the remaining acts to put on a good show if they wanted to remain in the competition. But it was such a bad night for so many of the contestants, that it felt like we should have had a triple elimination. Maybe even a quadruple.

Yesterday we advised a pre-show dabble at 8/1 about Johnny Robinson being one of the two eliminees this week, and immediately after the show he is now top-priced at 7/4. Certainly we were left in no doubt that producers are angling to get rid of him this week. As Allan said, “that was a very valedictory VT and the comments couldn’t have been any worse”. As Curtis put it: “Johnny opening the show? Rubbish song choice? Mixed judges comments? Oh dear for Johnny.”

In an apparent attempt to shove him straight down the memory hole, Johnny was then immediately followed by big hitter (or in this case big misser) Janet Devlin, whose flub of the lyrics means she will be relying on the Northern Ireland vote to keep her safe. One would imagine it will – it got Eoghan Quigg to the final, after all – but it is not now completely inconceivable to imagine a bottom three appearance for the erstwhile hot favourite.

Janet’s poor performance blew the win market wide open. Craig Colton briefly became favourite on Betfair for the entire show after getting a good audience reaction, and on that basis is most probably safe. It is, however, far from impossible to imagine erstwhile second favourites The Risk being in trouble, after a performance that was competent but hardly gamechanging.

Fifth up was Marcus Collins, who also briefly hit the top of the win market after getting some of the best judges’ comments we can remember in this show. It would be a major surprise to see him in trouble.

The next segment of the show was the vital one for the elimination markets. It was by some distance Kitty’s dullest performance yet, with an unhelpful VT and comments. Having promised a performance that was “100% Kitty”, she then proceeded to deliver a “Stars In Their Eyes” impersonation of Madonna.

As Kitty is coming down from a sympathy bounce, and after the torrid week she has endured in the tabloids with allegations of racism, in our view it was a performance and treatment with “bottom of the public vote” written all over it.

This is especially so given that the show immediately followed Kitty with an apparent effort to continue Frankie Cocozza’s unlikely run in the competition. His performance was as dire as we have come to expect, but his VT was helpful and the spat between Louis and Gary seemed engineered to bolster his vote as much as possible.

We know from the last two weeks that somebody is voting for Frankie. Whoever it is, they clearly aren’t doing it because they love his vocals. And one suspects the insult from Louis, and Gary taking the blame for the song choice, was intended to motivate them. It doesn’t look like the show wants to lose Frankie just yet – and Gary’s comment about Johnny not being a “pop star” seemed to be laying the ground for reasons to save Frankie in a possible singoff between the two.

Misha B’s rehabilitation continued and, with the sympathy bounce in her favour and a rock-solid performance, she is surely not a contender for the bottom three. Nor is it likely that Little Mix will land there after their pimping (and for those of you awaiting some humble pie after our article on Little Mix earlier in the week, rest assured that we will return to this subject next week when the dust has settled).

For now, though, where are we on the double elimination? Our reading is that the show is angling to lose Johnny and Kitty, and keep Frankie. If you took our suggestion yesterday to dabble at 12/1 on Johnny and Frankie to be the two to go this week, we’d now advise some kind of saver involving Kitty. Ladbrokes are going 10/1 on Johnny-Kitty in the double elimination, which seems fair.

So does the general 3/1 about Kitty being the 8th elimination (that is, if we assume the same format is used as for previous double eliminations, finishing bottom of the public vote).

What did you make of the show, and who are you expecting to be left on the stage after the first six acts have been called safe on Sunday night? As ever, do let us know below.

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85 comments to X Factor 2011 Week 5 Update: Goodbye Kitty?

  • Curtis

    Mancunians, vote for Misha. A great week for Marcus backers then, but a dismal week for Janet supporters! I’m dreading the results tomorrow, as I fear that both Kitty and Janet could feature in the bottom 3. Don’t forget that Misha is from Manchester. If they were to both leave, I may not even bother watching the rest of the competition. I’m afraid that Marcus just bores me, week in and week out. Misha B would be the only thing that would pull me back, but she was disappointing this week. She was much better last week! Still, she got pimped to the extreme. Did you know she was from Manchester? If you’re from Manchester vote for Misha.

    My prediction for the bottom 3 is the obvious Johnny/Kitty/Frankie, with Kitty hitting the bottom of the pack. Misha is from Manchester. The Risk and Janet are reasonable outside bets however. Particularly The Risk I feel, who were completely forgettable.

    Oh, and one last thing. Can I just mention that if you are in Manchester, pick up the phone and vote for Misha B.

    • tpfkar

      I come from Manchester, but just can’t decide who I should vote for. Dilemma!

      • Curtis

        Well funnily enough, I think you should vote for whoever you like most, rather than based on where you’re from! But it seems that The X Factor does not agree, as this week it felt the need to repeatedly tell us that Misha was from Manchester, and of course last week Craig got the whole Liverpool treatment (in fact, that was even worse!). I expect Janet’s VT to have at least 100 mentions of Northern Ireland in it next week, coupled with at least 10 from the judge’s bench after her performance, which should take place from the pimp slot. Please?

  • tpfkar

    Thoughts:

    1. Johnny’s treatment tonight was a complete repeat of the Wagner treatment, even down to the dancing girls turning their back on him in the recap VT. Agree that him in the bottom 3 is a great value bet.

    2. Mixed feelings on Little Mix. Yes they were last, and producer favour seems to be turning from Janet (which I said was vital to see them as possible contenders) but there was something a bit desperate tonight, needing a second consecutive late slot, very helpful VT, Tulisa begging for votes, etc which makes me wonder if they are not doing as well as they seem – will be interested in your thoughts.

    3. Not sure about Frankie, his performance was just so dull tonight, he looked like he’d given up from the moment he walked on stage.

    4. The biggest difference tonight was that the judges talked a lot more sense than usual. Especially Louis. I can’t help thinking this is a deliberate change driven by polling on flaws in the current series.

  • Boki

    My problem with obvious bottom 3 is that week after week obvious bottom 2 didn’t happen, there was always a surprise. But for many reasons I love the Kitty/Johnny theory 🙂

  • Donald

    Bad show overall, only Marcus shone performance wise which makes it a good show here on Sofabet.

    Little Mix to win the groups seems a reasonable bet to top up on at the price.

    And time to lay Janet almost, as posted earlier she didn’t want to sing that song according to few twitter posts, hard with the best will in the world to see her recovering from tonight unless late next week and brings the house down.

    I’d say you right Daniel, Kitty, Johnny Frankie but voting could be allot tighter than we think as most tonight not really vote increasing performances so maybe speculate a bit on The Risk but sleeping on it first.

    Louis could have no act left tomorrow night?

  • Boki

    Dan, if Frankie ends up last and both Johnny/Kitty in sing off who you think will be saved then since both are not favored anymore ?

    • Daniel

      Good question, Boki. Like you say, both suffered with their coverage tonight, but putting on Johnny first this week, even though he was second to perform last week indicates that he is least favoured of all.

  • nugget

    I am so dissapointed by tonights show, not from a punting point of view cos I can take getting things wrong now and again in that sense. It was just an appalling show, yes Marcus was very good tonight (not outstanding but by this series standards very good) Craig was ok if a little predictable, Misha remains a polished performer and superb vocally but despite the best efforts from her VT still does not grab me as particularly likeable, a quality needed to win.
    The rest were bad, to the point where none of their performances would have been even good enough to get them into bootcamp in a normal year.
    Littlemix had a good slot, another great VT and do have a certain normalness and likeability about them which a lot of young girls will realte to. Although the performance was was nothing special, they surely will pick up enough votes to keep them out of bottom 3.
    Janet messed up her one big chance to show she isn’t a one trick pony, Fluffing her lines, dissaponting vocally and looking comletely defeated. The whole country will now beleive she is indeed a one trick pony.
    The Risk, ok but forgetable, the boyband market is very competitive, they are not outstanding and I don’t think even pointing guns at people to make them vote is going to give them enough support to win this.
    Kitty gave her weakest performance yet, however she can sing and perform well but this was week she just didn’t sparkle. Lots of people do not seem to like her and the bad publicity won’t have helped.
    Frankie looked like he was just going through the motions, ironically though his “god knows why you are voting for me VT” and all the negative comments may actually help muster more votes from his fans despite his obvious lack of ability.
    Johnny, completely stitched up tonight. Bad slot, bad VT, bad song choice and bad staging. Looks like they want him out.

  • Rob

    wow, awful all of it!
    janet’s confidence is completely shot. i got the feeling she didn’t even want to be there!
    my advice based on tonights performances and pimping from the judges is get on marcus and little mix or craig. there doesn’t appear to be any interest in the others – but as entertainment, don’t even go there! this show is in terminal decline at the moment. sad!

  • Lee

    Good to see Marcus slowly m

  • bunnyman

    Hi Daniel, great stuff on the Marcus call which is looking increasingly good. Do you still see Janet as the chosen one? Since getting the pimp slot in week one, when it was judges only she has had a shocking run of draws, going 4/12, 2/11, 6/10 and 2/9. Surely not the treatment of a favoured contestant?

  • Mark

    Great article as always Daniel. Interesting that you think they are angling to loose BOTH Johnny and Kitty leaving Louis with no acts left at this stage of the competition. Has a judge been left with no acts this early in the competition before? My initial thoughts on tonights show was Johnny for 8th elimination and then sing-off between Kitty and Frankie – with Kitty being saved. Although thinking about Louis loosing all his acts this early could maybe tie in with some of the “twist” rumours being branded about recently?

  • bob

    Nugget!! Stick them their fireworks up your catherine wheel. If I wasnae on Marcus to win and franko to go, I’d be gutted.

    • nugget

      Ha Ha Bob I am on neither of those , unfortunately 🙁 but good luck I must say your Marcus bet is looking good now 🙂
      It took exactly 6 minutes for my fireworks bet to be a winner though, in what would have been a losing week for me otherwise.

  • mark (maps)

    Does anyone know where I can watch videos of the results shows from pevious x factor series – cant find every results show on youtube..some missing

    thanks

  • Lee

    Good to see Marcus slowly moving through the field, he is the real favourite in the market now Janet is still there because of the cash in the book, which makes all those big outright prices, top boy and top 3 finish bets look very nice.

    I took Johnny at 10s pre double elimination announcement, but happy with it after tonight (although I did back him at 7/4 ‘to go’ as opposed to ‘next to go’).

    Because its a vote to save I think the few hardcore supporters Kitty and Frankie have will outweigh Johnny’s (just). Well I hope so anyway!

    Bu the way are the producers far more blatant with their meddling this year or am I just more in tune with it??

  • nugget

    I got to give respect to Daniel for calling Marcus at such big prices early.

    You must admit though Daniel, this is a really bad season, the show has hit an all time low. This is the worst series ever and tonight was the worst x factor live show ever.

    I guess from a punting point of view thats not of too much concern, you are making good money calling the eliminations and you can now lay Marcus at 6.0 and hold a really decent free bet. I can do the same with Misha, I would still argue that Misha is the best performer and vocalist left, but if either of these 2 win or indeed any of the other acts it is really by default in what is a complete car crash of a year for X factor.

    I am in front money wise this series but still feel sad at what the show has become.

  • nugget

    As next week is Lady Gaga week apparantly, would it not make sense to keep Kitty (the profesional Lady Gaga impersonator) in the competition??

  • Matt

    Back after a few weeks on hols. I caught up on the last few weeks and have watched this one week with interest.

    Might I mention that I came home after last weekend but watched the shows before knowing who was bottom two and voted out. I thought Misha B, after watching the show, had a very poor song choice. She sang well but her song was a very light, nay comedy, version and didn’t let her show off her voice and I wasn’t suprised she was bottom two at all.

    Johnny up first this week seems like a sacrificial lamb with poor comments, although Kelly bucked the trend (interesting given the previous article). Seems certain for bottom three for me.

    Janet next and although she fluffed her lines I thought she sang OK. However some negative comments. Could she not be doing so well in votes thus far and be on the verge of sacrifice? I’ve never really got her and so can only hope. However, maybe the producers want a aympathy bounce for her next week.

    Craig was just blah, worst performance yet as the theme didn’t suit him but he seemed to pull less horrific faces than usual, probably safe but who knows. I have to be honest, I don’t get why people vote for him as he’s so average.

    The Risk were also distinctly average and comments by both Louis and Gary about Charlie being the lead singer seem to me to suggest that they’re being set up for a fall and the producers are hoping to generate acrimony in the group. I think they want The Risk to die and focus on Little Mix.

    Marcus got great comments but I thought his performance wasn’t his best tonight, mainly due to song choice. Hwever he got universally good comments. He was better than most of the others so I hope he’s safe.

    Kitty came across in the VT as pushy and a little difficult. Her judges comments weren’t great (Gary and Kelly) so I expect her in bottom three.

    Frankie’s VT seemed to consist of him saying he doesn’t know who’s voting for him and why, certainly not for his singing. He got slated by the judges after another terrible performance. Bottom three for sure in my book and possibly next out.

    Misha B had extremely positive VT with her family and being very humble and all. I suspect this is an attempt to get the voting public back on board so she makes the top four or so. I thought her song was interesting, she sang what Goldie sang as her second song in auditions and for me Goldie was better. Not sure what to make of it.

    Finally Little Mix, who I now suspect are the producers choice for the group to make the last three or four having sent the Risk down into division territory. They were decent and had great judges comments (including Kelly’s ‘they were good but you should see what they can do’ thang)

    For me Frankie, Kitty and Johhny are bottom three. I disagree with a Johnny/Kitty elimination as I can’t see the producers wanting to empty a category so soon. My money is (metaphorically, for now) on Frankie and Johnny to go.

    • tpfkar

      And if they did empty the overs category, it would be with all 3 boys remaining, which would be even odder. Marcus and Craig seem safe so the more I consider this, the less likely it seems that the show really is keen to keep Frankie.

      • Boki

        If Dan’s prediction of Kitty on bottom comes true then most likely Frankie/Johnny sing-off.

        Then there are reasons for Johnny to go or to stay.
        1. Johnny’s treatment was not good and that’s a fact
        2. If Frankie is sent away than Johnny might get a bounce next week and that’s the last thing they want
        3. Counter argument for Johnny is empty category and 3 boys left. But next week is Frankie 99% gone and they have 2 acts nicely spread over 3 judges. That suites the rumour about swapping categories between them (which is not likely if Johnny remains and they must give him to someone). But if there is no swapping they might indeed keek Johnny little more depending on Kitty…

  • Chatterbox5200

    bWin have Johnny at Evens to be in the bottom 3. Sounds too good to be true!

    They are also showing 2/1 for him to be eliminated. Given everything said above, I can’t imagine him being saved in a sing-off, so this may be even better than a bottom 3 bet.

  • JINt

    I call it slightly differently. I don’t think Mischa will recover from last week. Despite a really strong performance, I still think she’ll be in the bottom 3.
    I call Kitty with the bottom vote, and Frankie v Mischa for the judges…

  • I had a bet on a judge mentioning fireworks @ 7/4 with coral as highlighted here by someone yesterday. Despite Tulisa mentioning fireworks in the opening sequence coral has settled the bet as a loser. I have written to complain.

  • Roach

    Mike, Ronnie: Realising they’d lost a few quid, Coral changed the small print on that market, meaning that the phrases had to be said ‘word for word’. I’d imagine what was originally ‘a judge mentioning fireworks’ became ‘a judge to say “we’ve had fireworks on the X Factor stage tonight” or the like. Incredibly naughty, and you might have a case with IBAS.

    • mark

      Thats why I often avoid markets like this-they change it after, then claim they didn’t and you’re in the wrong (had this issue with ladbrokes) we had a screenshot showing original market name, they changed it after a bet I placed–said my bet was a loser based on new rules (winner or void at worse on old) but got nowhere, and IBAS seem to always side with the bookie

  • Roach

    I should add that’s my best guess at what happened! based on previous similar instances. I could be wrong.

  • The wording of the bet is any judge to use the words “fireworks” or “bonfire night”. It is printed like that on the (web) bet receipt so cannot be changed retrospectively. Being kind(lol!) they may have just missed it as the mention was right at the beginning of the show. They will have to payout IMO even if it’s post IBAS.

  • bob

    Hmm,did she actually say “fireworks” and was it on VT or live? My thoughts were they may try and say had to be live if was VT but looking at my betslip I reckon they’ll have to pay even if it was VT.

  • nugget

    I am on a loser too alegedly, I guess they are saying now the VT does not count. Nothing in the rules says this.
    Corals will have lost a fair few quid on this special.

  • Tim

    Oh what a night! Was at a party last night and you should have seen the moment Janet forgot her words – the whole room screamed! I’m going to watch the show back now sober and will do a write-up afterwards.

  • lolhart

    After watching yesterday’s show I’m glad I decided not to back The Risk for the win. It seems to me the producers’ focus is shifting towards Little Mix for the groups. They had another positive VT focusing on them as individuals and performing with Jessie J. The Risk’s VT wasn’t negative, but it did compare them to JLS in the overcrowded boyband market. More telling were Gary and Louis’ comments about The Risk realising Charlie is the lead singer, whereas Little Mix’s feedback focused on how good they are as a group.

    Despite Marcus’ great response from the judges, I still think Craig is the favoured boy. Last night was a good opportunity for them to criticise him after an average performance, but they didn’t go there.

  • Rob

    my reading of the running order was they put johnny on firts to ensure that he comes bottom 3. they then put kitty at a decent place and gave her mixed comments, but then they immediately followed her with frankie who they assassinated. therefore i think this is an attempt to make frankie bottom with a sing off with kitty/johnny – kitty to win. i disagree kitty is the target… it’s johnny! if it had been kitty surely it would have been easier simply to put her in a death slot?

    • Tim

      I agree, Rob. Kitty is not the target for elimination this week which has surely has to be Frankie/Johnny. I think Kitty has a lot of support and would hope she not come last in the vote. I agree she is likely to be in the sing off but I’m sure the judges would save her.

  • Noisy

    I saw Frankie’s VT as an attempt to get rid of him. The producers had seen people continue to vote for him throughout his bad boy image so were trying to dampen that down and show him as changing to lose the people voting for that.

    • Andrew

      Noisy, Rob – interesting that you saw Frankie’s VT that way. I watched it back and I still think it indicates they want to keep him. The big question of course is why have people been voting for him the last two weeks, and we can only assume it must be from a sense of irony or mischief. So having him say that he has no idea why people are voting for him, and having Louis lay into him quite so vociferously, seem likely to boost his vote if this is the motivation behind it.

      I don’t think Kitty’s running order slot was helpful – after an ad break which followed “the performance of the season”, and immediately followed by the Frankie fireworks which will have made people forget about her. If they’d been wanting to keep Kitty, I’d have expected her to need a lot more help than this.

      • Rob

        hi Andrew, the thing about him asking why are people voting for him was actually to challenge the audience – well WHY are you voting for him? to challenge them to examine their motives and perhaps come to the conclusion they are wasting their time? they also used the wagner trick of last year of taking away his staging and leaving him exposed with just his voice. then it came to the comments which were universally bad with a lot of distraction arguing – gary only defended him regarding making the wrong song choice and the killer for me was when, who at first i thought was going to defend him, said that the main thing you need in the industry was the ability to sing, clearly inferring that he can’t – at that point we fell about laughing in our house, and since listening to it back i noticed the studio audience had a good chortle at that point. i think you may be taking reverse psychology to extremes if you think this was meant to keep him out the bottom 3?

        • Andrew

          Interesting, Rob – goes to show the different ways of looking at these things. I interpreted his VT comments as suggesting they’re trying to turn him into a John Sargeant figure, perversely voted through despite knowing that he’s useless. And I think Kelly actually was trying to defend him (“you’ve so nearly got it all”), and it was unintentional that it came out so hilariously wrong (“except for the ability to sing”).

          A mentor claiming responsibility for a bad song choice has form of boosting votes (ref Scott Bruton), avoids Gary having to lie as in week 2, and provides another rationale for a singoff save. And what you saw as distraction arguing I saw as “vote Frankie to annoy Louis!”

          Not sure it was meant to keep him out of the bottom three – I doubt they could if they wanted to – but I think it was meant to keep him off the bottom, and give them the opportunity to save him over (if all goes to plan) Johnny.

          • Rob

            see the rationale. it doesn’t matter really to my bet which wins if johnny goes – bottom or sing-off. it’s interesting though that frankies views have become just dislikes now rather than a little marmite which suggests his support is evaporating.

  • Ronnie

    Just watching the show this morning – they are really trying to rebuild Misha B. The Manchester mentions, the number of times Misha said “thank you” after the judges comments, the new softer styling, the positive VT of her being humbled by her family – a real attempt to make her more appealing to middle England. Her singing style was still the same though – she has a very aggressive tone and keeps doing little grunts of “ha” in her performances which really grate with me.

    I’m a really worried Janet backer. I pinned my colours to the mast early doors with her but she has failed to put in a good performance since the start of the live shows – she is being outshone big time and really needs to put her foot on the pedal starting next week as the momentum is behind the boys right now. Marcus (although I have smalls on him at 22s) is looking like a true popstar. True he wasn’t as good as the judges said tonight but he was still good and the comments tell me that they are starting to see his potential.

    Littlemix’s VT was interesting – an attempt to get to know the group as individuals – I think that this is in hope that viewers/voters will find someone they can relate to. Everyone had a favourite Spice Girl and perhaps they want fans to find their favourite ‘Mix’.

    All the signs point to Johnny/Frankie/Kitty bottom three but as someone else has pointed out – it han’ts been that straight forward this series so can’t rule out a ‘shock’ bottom 3 entry. I think Kitty will be bottom of the vote – she hasn’t polled well before so can’t see how bad-ish comments and racist news stories will help that.

    Who would win a sing-off between Johnny and Frankie??? I’d appreciate peoples views on this.

    By the way, Coral has to pay out on the “fireworks” bet – it is as clear as day a winning bet as Tulisa said it on the show. They can’t wriggle out of it I’m afraid. Come on Coral – do the honest and decent thing or people won’t bet on your specials again as they’d have no confidence in you paying out!!!

  • Noisy

    I don’t think she said it on the show. I think they showed a VT where she said it. I’ve not read the terms though so don’t know if that’s included or not but I’m guessing not by the reaction.

    Agree about toning Misha down a lot. She looked far less scary after this week’s makeunder!

    I think they’d save Frankie. They’ve gone to big efforts to hurt Johnny this week (and slightly earlier with benefit fraud stories) so would be keen to get shot. I think Frankie’s easier to get rid of when they really want to so do Johnny while they can.

    • Ronnie

      I take your point regarding it being said on VT but the bet was that a judge said the words on Saturday night’s show and the word “fireworks” was said by a judge on Saturday night’s show – there was no mention of it having to be live and when sat in their chair.

      If they meant that it had to be live – I’m afraid they’ll have to realise that they made a mistake and be more careful to insert that important rule when offering future specials. However, they will have to pay out in this instance and IBAS would definitely find in the customer’s favour here.

      This was the wording of the bet, listed under the title of X Factor Saturday night specials:

      “A judge to use the words “Fireworks” or “bonfire night””

      I really can’t see how Coral can have a case for not paying out.

      I’m also struggling to see how Kitty won’t be bottom of the vote tonight. Frankie and Johnny both have some semblance of support while Kitty has been in the bottom two most recently and has been vilified by the press both longer term and over the past few weeks. My only worry about backing her at 3/1 to be next out is that I can’t be sure how they’ll play it tonight – will it be the usual double elimination format?

      • bob

        To anyone on this bet, you getting anywhere with Coral? They’re telling me there was a stipulation on site – conveniently not there any more as the market is closed – that it had to be said live, in the studio.

        • nugget

          I have been told much the same Bob…not happy, I have no recollection of seeing that and its certainly not in their specials markets rules or mentioned on the bet.
          Are you going to IBAS??

          • Ronnie

            Lads, I am yet to receive a reply but if they tell me what you they have told you then I will take them to IBAS. There was no stipulation stating that the words had to be mentioned in the studio – they are making up the rules after the event.

          • bob

            A mate placed the bet for me as I can’t access gambling sites at work so I personally dont know but clearly there is nothing in their rules, terms or on the slip so it does sound that way. They say that before going to IBAS I have to go through their complaints procedure which involves a physical letter. Not sure if this is true but have some mates well versed in this who I’ll check with.

        • mark

          doesnt sound true bob – sounds like trying to put peolle off/make you jump through hoops I think you can go to IBAS when you want

          just trying to put people off/make it a lot of effort/making up rules as thry go along

          shameful, what a joke book – wouldn’t use them again that’s for sure!best to take screenshots of mkts like this so they cant claim it had different rules after the event etc

  • Tim

    After re-watching the performances and taking everything into account, I can’t see anything other than a Kitty, Johnny, Frankie bottom 3. Maybe The Risk with an outside chance. There have been surprises in the sing off so far though so anything could happen!

    I would be alarmed to see Janet in the bottom 2 – as well as the regional vote surely she’ll get a sympathy vote?

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    The thing about this show is the capacity to surprise. Bottom 3 – well its Johnnie and any two of five.

    I think both CRAIG and JANET could be in trouble because their performances were unspectacular. FRANKIE was diabolical but there is nothing new there and he might survive bottom place.
    I reckon JOHHNY FRANKIE and possibly CRAIG.
    I’ve had a big bet on JOHNNIE to be in bottom 3 at 4/5 and a fiver on CRAIG to be first out at 16/1.
    Should be a bunpy ride this evening.

  • bob

    Personally I think Kitty is the only cert for bottom 3. We don’t know how Johhny has been faring so difficult to say he’ll certainly be down there, whereas Kitty has been bottom two every week apart from with the bounce. Week 1 she was sensational and in the bottom. I dont buy that she’s won anyone over and reckon 1/2 is a great bet. I also think the judges will save her over most people.

  • Donald

    Have had a good run on elimination market so far so no point of spoiling it this week.

    It is a lottery really to pick who is actually bottom in the public vote if that what they use for first elimation tonight.

    So few bets on bottom three few for value, Misha and The Risk and even Janet and few doubles.

    So glad I didn’t go lumping on Janet until saw a show winning performance.
    Well done to Sofabet for Marcus though at the price, starting to look good, lets hope it continues.

    Still waiting for my main bet though.

    Is Marcus price shortening an over reaction Daniel? Only joking!

    Good luck to all tonight.

  • tpfkar

    If you think that the X Factor is running out of talent by recycling old contestants, I’m currently watching Antonio Popeye try to speak German on ‘Das Super Talent’ wearing a stupid wig and T-Shirt. We are even exporting our talent show rejects overseas, will anyone take Frankie now? 😉

  • EM

    One question and one observation this week:

    Hasn’t X Factor got a bit of form for sending people out to sing Proud Mary and it never really working for them?

    And the mentions of where each Little Mix comes from (and map for the hard of hearing) shows they are P1 for the groups at least.

    • Tim

      EM – A couple of years AGO Rachel Adedeji sang Proud Mary and topped the vote the week after being bottom 2, so this looks like the same strategy for Misha B. Rachel was even criticised for supposedly ‘copying’ Stacey Solomon’s dippy post-performance interview style and still topped the vote! Correct me if I’m wrong but I think that’s what happened.

      I have laid Misha B for bottom 3 this week so hope she gets a sympathy bounce.

  • Twitter results are up – pretty consistent with what’s been written today, and definitely indicators of risk Johnny.

    http://anlytk.wordpress.com/2011/11/06/xfactor-week-5/

    • Mark

      That’s really interesting – it shows (assuming scales are linear/level) that Frankie is 3rd most popular and most unpopular act.

      In this sport all that matters is the size of your own pile so that’s good for Frankie.

      Still not going to see the odds any greater than current 190-1 though – more’s the pity

  • Rob

    just read on digitalspy that janet’s song was altered 20 mins before the show and it was that which led to fluffed line. don’t know if this is forum gossip or true?

    if true is there anything in it? the poor running orders for janet have been already noted and it seems strange that none of the judges brought up the song alteration as an excuse for her. or was it just a producer balls up?

  • Donald

    There is a rumour on twitter that Frankie has just walked out.

    Daily Star reporter just tweeted to find out true or not?

  • Ronnie

    For those who had the fireworks bet with Coral:

    I have been told that the market stipulated that the words must be spoken during the LIVE broadcast of the show and that the VT doesn’t count.

    I still maintain that this wasn’t stated when I placed my bet.

    I have a friend who works for Coral at their head office who said that the in-shop material did have this ‘LIVE’ stipulation but it says he can’t see it on the on line version.

  • bob

    I find it hard to believe they cant produce a screenshot of the terms, that they cant view past versions oof their own site.

  • EM

    Very vague on how the double elimination will work so far on the show. I’m expecting bottom goes outright and sing off with next two but maybe the voting hasn’t gone how they expected.

  • Phil

    I think I have figured out the script for tonight. The producers want Johnny to be bottom, with Kitty and Frankie also in B3. The judges will deadlock, and if everything goes the way producers want, Kitty will be going home. The judges split (Kelly/Gary vs. Tulisa/Louis) would cause controversy, especially if Frankie stayed.

    They wouldn’t mind if Kitty was bottom, but will want people tuning in to see if Frankie is eliminated (don’t want him eliminated right away). There is even a safety net in case of a shock bottom three appearance, if the public don’t vote as intended. The producers can’t lose as long as two of Johnny, Frankie, and Kitty go home.

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    Well the biggest bet HAS to be Kitty to survive over Johnnie. I dont know what odds but I expect Daniel will tell us later.
    Johnnie was nailed on for bottom 3 – death slot, awful song and rubbish comments.

  • tpfkar

    That upcoming article on the most favoured group just got a lot easier to write!

  • mark

    Upcoming article and who will be next to go eh? 🙂

  • Donald

    Happy Days Top group Little Mix. So glad kept topped it up as well.

    Interested in what odds Johnny was during sing off Daniel.

    Got the double with The Risk but not allot on.

    Some going here on Sofabet on elimations so far this year. Well done.

  • mark

    I look forward to a post sow analysis/next weeks early doors thoughts

    In reality little mix should be 10 times the price they are, Janet should be a few ticks bigger

    Question now is when will Frankies time be up? as someone is clearly voting him to stay in – id avoid backing him to go
    I thought it would be somewhere between wk5-7 for Johnnys eparture, but frankie is proving hard to predict

  • Stephen

    thanks a lot mark for reading the twitter stats properly and commenting on it as i was too hungover to notice myself. i had backed frankie to be in the bottom 3 at 1.2 but layed him off at 1.12 when i saw that. also backed johnny at 1.5, 1.33 and there was plenty more to be had at 1.25 if i had more to risk

  • Chatterbox5200

    I knew the odds of 2/1 for Johnny to be eliminated this week, and Evens to be in the bottom 3, were too good to resist.

    Tonight was also great for my bets on Little Mix to be Top Group and Kitty to be Top Over 25.

    The night was rounded off by a sneaky little punt on Johnny & The Risk to both go at odds of 100/1.

    I agree that any bets on when Frankie will finally go will need to be cautious ones. his odds are very low already for next week, but there must be people voting for him (probably the anti-show voters or some of the One Direction Twitter followers urged to vote for him), to keep him out of the bottom 3.

    Some value might be had on backing someone other than Frankie to go. As has already been said on here, the obvious result, is not always the case. If it was, Kitty/Frankie in the bottom 2 next week would be a nailed on certainty.

    • Pete D

      Chatterbox. Oh well done with that sneaky 100/1 punt. THE RISK result ‘so soon’ was a big surprise to a lot of folk I reckon. I had a nice little 7/1 on LITTLE MIX to be first safe (as a reassuring ‘little’ gift of support from the producers after their bullying of Jesy feature last week).

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