X Factor Week 3 Post-Mortem: Sami Brookes cruises out

In the end, the best money-making opportunity once again came by waiting for the singoff itself. After a Saturday show that was puzzling in many ways as to producers’ intentions, once Sami and Kitty had been announced as the two in the singoff, there was never any doubt about who programme-makers would have wanted to keep around.

As with last week on Nu Vibe, I got a four-figure sum matched on Betfair for a return of just under 20%. As we pointed out in our preview article on Saturday, Sami Brookes was the one act we were fairly confident producers had no interest in keeping: initially rejected in favour of Goldie Cheung at judges’ houses, she was given the worst running order slot bar Nu Vibe in the week of the first public vote.

As we wrote after Saturday’s slightly puzzling show, it was a case of swings and roundabouts for Sami’s chances of escaping the bottom two. She wasn’t sent out in the death slot, but was given a poor slot of 3rd; the argument cooked up between Gary and Louis seemed designed to give her a lifeline for this week, but Sami had not done herself any favours by missing her cue at the start of her performance. It probably also didn’t help that she then pleaded rather too desperately for votes in her post-match interview with Dermot.

We didn’t expect Sami to be saved against anyone, though, and especially when it came down to a matchup against Kitty – who producers had given the pimp slot to in the week of the first public vote – there was never a moment’s uncertainty about who was heading home.

As often happens, much wisdom was to be found below the line in the Sofabet comments section. In particular, shoutouts must go to fiveleaves for writing:

The Star are reporting that Kitty was only 0.5% away from the B2 last week.
That was from the pimp slot.
With an earlier slot and Johnny surely taking some of her ‘entertainment’ votes, with an excellent performance, I think she’s far from safe.
ofc it depends whether you believe the Star on these things.
Given their record I tend to.

And to Tim, who wrote:

I’m not sure Frankie is in much trouble as people think. They gave him his OWN segment of the show and in the second half, suggesting they’d like him around for longer. Maybe this is my wallet talking though as I am on Smai to go…

Against the expectations of most of us, there were enough people out there who found some reason to vote for Frankie. While the show went out of its way to present him in the most objectionable light possible, suggesting they were milking him for all they could while they could rather than going all-out to save him, we have no doubt that they will be delighted to have him around for at least one more week of tabloid fun.

A final note on tonight’s result is to be delighted that Marcus – who is carrying the hopes of many of us in these parts – survived being thrown under the Strictly bus. Will producers be persuaded now to show him some love with a pimp slot any time soon?

Do come back tomorrow when we’ll be reflecting at more length on the Misha situation from Saturday night, and in general about what has gone wrong with the current series, following another weekend of tiresomely staged controversies and lower ratings. There was a definite sense of contrition in some of Tulisa’s comments during the results show, especially when she said that Misha stood out in terms of performance.

In the meantime, let us know your reaction to tonight’s result below.

26 comments to X Factor Week 3 Post-Mortem: Sami Brookes cruises out

  • Curtis

    When Marcus came out first singing an upbeat number I thought the writing was on the wall for him. I thought he sang it well, but perhaps not well enough. I was wrong. What I didn’t count on was the fact that the field would be incredibly dire, making Marcus become one of the stand-out performances of the night. None of the big 3 of Janet, The Risk and Misha put performances out there that stole the show at all, in fact all 3 of them were quite bland. It could be the start of a turnaround for Marcus, or it could just prolong his death at the hands of the producers.

    Overall it was a bad week for everyone except Johnny and Marcus. A bad week for the other 9 contestants, a bad week for the judges, and a bad week for Simon Cowell. It’s a shame that this series of X Factor is struggling ratings wise, because actually in terms of who’s going to win it’s one of the most interesting in years.

  • Tim

    I had a big lay on Kitty so I was horrified to see her land in the bottom 2. On performance she didn’t deserve to be there. She was helped during the show with an ad break so I was convinced she was safe.

    Had a hunch for Sami the other day so I backed a small amount on her to be eliminated and today I backed her for bottom 2 also.

    Also had a tiny loss on Rythmix for bottom 2, I thought the fake argument following their performance would see them land there. Also thought they would be punished for not performing rock on rock week. Absolutely amazed they received more votes than Kitty!

    • Curtis

      I have to admit that Kitty in the bottom 2 shocked me. I thought we had got past the stage of her being the Katie Waissel of this year’s show, and that that was now Frankie’s role (though I did expect a sympathy bounce for Frankie that would keep him out of the bottom 2 for a week, expect him back there next week!). Turns out that Kitty is still hated by the public. Any chances of her being a challenger have been dashed really.

      • Boki

        I also didn’t expect Kitty in bot2 but I was happy to see her there. Not only because of predictable sing-off outcome but important for Louis 1st manager out bet.

  • Boki

    At the end, Frankie issue was unexpectably fair: they showed who he really is, like it or not. Even judges comments looked honest: he has bad vocals, he isn’t cheeky boy anymore, he made a sort of comeback because of rock week but far from spectacular. Maybe because of this honesty he won some extra votes to be safe.

    Or maybe they just manufacture some sms-es to get him just enough to be safe (if small differences decide at this point and they now how the votes are coming in shouldn’t be a problem) 🙂

  • nugget

    I think its fair to say this week there was a lot more doubt and uncertainty about how various performances, publicity and comments would affect the public vote.
    There does,in my opinion, come a point where even the most likely outcome becomes a value bet as a lay rather than a back.

    Next week would seem more open than ever, Frankie would be the obvious choice to go but I certainly would not want to be backing at the current price of 6/4. Maybe a bit of the 8/1 Sophie may be better value.

    Tonights result would back up what almost everyone was saying pre show on Saturday, that Sami would go. I still cannot work out just who IS voting for Frankie, but clearly he is getting at least some support from somewhere. As it was it worked out well for me this week. I did think that a few tabloid stories this week about Misha and bullying plus a graveyard slot might mean she could be a bit of value for a bottom 2 spot next week, but surely her talent and voice can pull her through.

  • K Bisset

    Here we go again, I preferred Sammi over Kitty but the X Factor is all about the drama so maybe that is why Kitty was kept in. Sammi has a great voice and it should have been Johnny or Frankie to go as neither of them do it for me. I like Janet and Sophie please let a girl win this year. I think the ‘bullying’ issue with Misha was weird but then again, that is how british TV seems to work. Bit like the soaps, the X Factor craves DRAMA.

  • tpfkar

    Bah! Thought Frankie for bottom 2 was clearly safe after such an unsympathetic showing on Saturday, designed to flatten a sympathy bounce, but his fans turned up. Never saw the Kitty bottom 2 coming. Not good!

  • nugget

    11/4 Marcus to be top boy with bet365 surely now a half decent bet, if you can get on 🙂

  • Simon "le chat"

    Franky safe for another week as well, so he makes the live tour. Kitty safe as well for another week unless they are both botton 2. Needs to be a gril going next week, one of the threats to JANET – could be MISHA who was softned up, or could be SOPHIE. I don’t “get” Sophi, I think she is very average. Mind you I dont see what all the rage is about wth JANET either, and her annoying yodelling. One thing to notice about the performances on Saturdayis that CRAIG and JANET didn’t do “rock” at all- they just did a ballad each because that’s all they can do. Will it be enough in the long run?
    I thought THE EISK were very good by the way- they can all sing well and look good.

    Interesting cooments to FRANKIE on the lines that he “looks great” and has a “really good image” and “style” – it ws one of the judges who said “you just need o be able to sing” – hah! This is supposed to be a singing competition.

    Yep, Frankie will stick around for another week and then be thrown to the wolves once he has made the tour

    • nugget

      I have to agree with you here, the sole objective now for the production team is which acts will create the right mix/work best for the tour.
      Tour needs at least one or two novelty/big production performers which should mean Kitty/Johnny (and possibly Frankie??) safe for another week.
      Sophie really not looking like star material, nice singer but bit of a plain Jane type and must be in danger soon.

    • Curtis

      Just want to say that there is such a thing as a rock ballad. I think what Craig did qualifies for that category. Clearly Janet’s interpretation of Sweet Child o Mine was not rock though.

  • Donald

    Lucky to get out of going against Frankie to stay. Still was worth the go at the price but not being in bottom two was surprise.

    Marcus is huge price at Boylesports now (The only bookie who follow Daniel on twitter)

    One thing I was told today is Janet getting huge coverage on UTV etc. but very little coverage in other areas in Ireland. RTE very little coverage even in their entertaiment section on the web, they were all over Mary last year so Janets regional vote may not be as strong as we think.

    Sun TV reporter on twitter tonight say Kelly and Tulisa not talking after the show.

    Simon will have to do something re ratings, what is the question?

    Who on first next week? surely Gary or Kelly to loose an act? It will start getting silly if Louis loses Kitty next week, then you looking at Johnny, Rhythmix territory following week? Only one else they can go for Frankie, unless Misha B episode escaletes.

    Sophie still a mystery.

  • Tim

    Daniel, please can you share your thoughts on who might be saved out of a Frankie/Kitty bottom 2? Looks like it could be a possibility now.

    I was also going to request you write a ‘Why we think Kitty Brucknell will not win The X Factor’ (or similar) post but little need now 🙁

  • Kieran

    Does anyone else think that Tulisa to be the first to lose all her acts at 10/1 is very big? Kitty and Johnny and strange forces and the novelty voters could see one of them rally the final 4. Rhythmix are on borrowed time and the risk are trending badly and not performing well. They seem to be struggling on a personal level too. Marcus/Craig should see Gary in there for a long time and you would expect Kelly to have two out of the final four

    • Boki

      The only reason she’s so big is because the Risk are favorites to win (together with Janet). If Risk slips she will too but people expect top3 with each category except the over. Is Risk overrated? Maybe but hard to tell yet.

  • fiveleaves

    Cheers Dan,
    A very good night here.
    I made it close between about 5 or 6 of them.
    When I read The Star story there was only place my money was going.
    I was happy with some 7 ish last night, but managed some 12 tonight for B2.

    It’s often best to wait for the sunday when you think an outsider is in danger, because the casual money just piles on the favs and the market makers push the outsiders right out.

  • Shoulders

    If anyone ever needs proof the sympathy bounce works it’s Frankie

    • nugget

      Hi Shoulders

      It may be “the sympathy bounce” but Frankie survived what whas IMO one the most least flattering VT ever shown on the X Factor, bad judges comments and a really bad performance and still did not make bottom 2.

      Who’s to say next week he wont get a nice slot, an easy song to sing and big production, a better VT and comments like “You have really taken everything we said on board and worked hard this week Frankie, etc”

      Having avoided bottom two this week I cannot see any value in the 6/4 for him to go next week. I still cannot work out who is voting for him and I may be wrong but I will be looking elsewhere for next weeks elimination.

      Nugget

  • Shoulders

    Hi Nugget
    I agree, when I referred to the sympathy bounce working it was because it seems to have worked even with a really bad VT, may be the people voting are the girls who go for the bad man??

  • Simon "le chat"

    You have to ask yourself who is surplus to the tour?
    The boring acts left in are in my view “gurning” Craig, “steady” Sophie and and RYTHMIX. However you can see the 8 on tour being two of each category. This has to be
    KITTY AND JONNIE
    JANET AND MISHA
    FRANKIE AND MARCUS
    THE RISK and RYTHMIX

    No one would miss Craig or Sophie and I reckon they could be next to fall. Craig particularly is limited, give him the deathslot and let’s see if he can turn it around like Marcus did – I doubt it very much. Death slot for CRAIG or SOPHIE then and whichever one gets it could be in real trouble. I mean, would anyone in here PAY to go and listen to Sophie or Craig?
    Nor me. I would however pay to “see” Frankie Johhnie and Kitty.
    I’m going to back Sophie and Craig to go.

    • Boki

      Hi Simon,
      It sounds logical to me what you are saying but is your ‘tour logic’ also based on the experience of previous seasons?

    • Andrew

      Hi Simon and Boki, I personally think the tour is a red herring in terms of punting strategy. Although traditionally they have taken the top 8 on tour (9 last year), I don’t think they are in any way obliged to do so – I would assume they can pick and choose whoever they think will sell tickets regardless of the finishing order.

      Here is a quote from a 2008 contestant to the effect that only the top 4 were guaranteed to be on the tour that year
      http://www.unrealitytv.co.uk/x-factor/x-factor-live-tour-2008-your-favourite-may-not-be-there/

      Of course, all things being equal you would think the acts who do best in the phone votes would be the acts who’d sell the most tour tickets. But it would be needlessly restricting of the show to commit itself in advance to take the top whatever number of acts, and they don’t seem to do so – see the page on the official website, which simply refers to “contestants” being on the tour (not how many)
      http://xfactor.itv.com/2011/live-tour/

    • fiveleaves

      It’s young girls who buy tickets for the tour so Rhythmix a must I’d have thought.

      Agree with others though. It’s a slight red herring as they can basically put whoever they want on the tour.

  • Boki

    One last observation from sing-off: Louis explicitely said he is not going for a deadlock – that means Kitty got even less votes than Sami.

  • Reading her interview on Digital Spy, there’s no question in my mind that Sami was thrown under the bus this week, especially when looking at her comments on the song choice:

    “I was gutted about the song. I begged for the song to be changed. I had 20 songs written down and they wouldn’t pick any of them. I begged and actually cried. I’m not a bloody diva, but I wanted to be taken more seriously.

    ‘Turn Back Time’… every girl sings that on karaoke night. I’m just gutted that I’m out. I tried to change it and mess around with the song, but you can’t ever mess with a classic that much, so it was difficult. I didn’t want that song and from day one, I’ve had issues with my song choices.

    I don’t want to be doing songs for 75 year olds. I want to do current songs that I can change, like Bruno Mars at Boot Camp. I loved a challenge. Cher wasn’t a challenge, it’s a karaoke classic. They knew that, but they gave it to me anyway. I was a bit disappointed by that.”

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