Can analysis of Twitter predict X Factor voting?

Can social media predict X Factor voting? It’s a question that’s come up a lot in the Sofabet comments section recently, with debate about how much can be read into metrics such as numbers of Twitter followers (Frankie Cocozza way ahead, so evidently not much), Facebook likes (Janet Devlin way ahead), Youtube viewings and like/dislike ratios, iTunes ratings, and so on.

Regular readers of Sofabet during the 2010 series will have followed the travails of our commenter Nick in trying to identify social media metrics which might help him to predict the bottom two each week. This year we are especially looking forward to following commenter Toby’s new anlytk site, which tracks volume of tweet activity and positive/negative balance. This week it showed Nu Vibe and Rhythmix generating least activity, with Frankie and Kitty generating most negativity.

We’ll come back to this week in due course, but first some more general questions. Twitter sentiment analysis has recently been used with some success to predict box office sales and stock market movements. So what is the potential to use social media to predict X Factor voting – and what are the problems?

As we at Sofabet are not the most switched on when it comes to social media (we so far use our Twitter account only for automated notifications of new posts), we asked Toby from anlytk to explain his methods:

“What I have written is some code that connects to the twitter API and grabs everything tagged with certain keywords from the last week… Then it’s a case of going through each tweet, looking for words that reflect positive and negative emotion (for want of a better word) and then counting up each of them. It really is as simple as looking for “good” words: Like, love, happy, great etc, and bad words: hate, rubbish, shit etc. There are a few lists out there which rate them in terms of how positive or negative they are, but it’s all a bit subjective.”

Toby’s methods are similar to free tools such as Twitter Sentiment and Social Mention, which show volume and positivity/negativity of references, but, as he says, “I have access to the raw data so can be more selective in how I analyse it”. This helps to solve one problem with these free sites – filtering out non-X Factor references. For example, every tweet referring to “Janet Devlin” will be relevant, but most tweets containing the phrase “The Risk” will not.

Another problem is revealed by a quick search of Social Mention – the tracking of positivity and negativity using keywords is still very primitive. For example, “Frankie Cocozza is a twat and needs a good haircut” was counted as a positive tweet, presumably because the word “good” is on a positive words list (and whoever compiled the negative words list missed out “twat”); whereas “it’s a shame Marcus Collins is gay” was counted as a negative tweet, presumably because “shame” is on the negative words list. Toby also points out that such simple word lists can miss the meaning inversions that come with the word “not” (so, for instance, “not a good performance” would be counted as positive).

Pending improvements in software that can understand human language, there is not much we can do about this. We can at least assume that it shouldn’t affect comparisons too much, as the problem should affect all acts roughly equally; although, as Toby says, that “might depend on the demographic a bit – different audience segments using different language for instance”.

Mention of demographics brings us to the core problem: There is far from a perfect overlap between X Factor voters and users of social media. As you would expect, analyses of Twitter user demographics, such as this one, show they skew towards the young, female, urban and educated; Facebook demographics also trend young, as do Youtube demographics.

We can discover something about X Factor voter demographics from a poll conducted by YouGov before the 2010 final (which proved to be pretty accurate in terms of predicting the result, though it underestimated both One Direction and Cher – perhaps because their predominantly young voters were more likely to multiple-vote). While the show’s voters also skew towards the female, they do not skew so young, nor so urban, nor so educated (if we can use education as a proxy for social class) as social media users.

However, knowing the differences in overall demographics is not much help, because to translate from Twitter activity to votes we would need breakdowns of voter demographics per act. And this is something we can only guess at.

Last year, for example, Nick found that One Direction consistently did much better on Twitter than they did in the votes, while Mary Byrne did much worse. These are obvious cases – we can be pretty confident that the former’s supporters skewed young and female and the latter’s more mature. But which social demographics were voting for Matt Cardle, say, or Rebecca Ferguson? This is much less obvious. That YouGov poll tells us some things we might easily have guessed (Matt’s lead over Rebecca was bigger with female than male voters), and some we might not (in age breakdown Matt’s biggest lead was with the 16-24s; in regional breakdown, Matt did disproportionately well in the North, the Midlands and Wales, and disproportionately badly in Scotland). This shows that the necessary judgement calls about which demographics are voting for which acts need to be made with some caution.

It is fair to say that Nick’s efforts last year yielded more frustrated theorising than profitable insight (Nick’s absence from the comments box this year is due to work commitments). In his comments about the semi-final, for example, Nick noted that One Direction were dominating Twitter with Rebecca coming last, and Cher was leading Youtube with Matt only fourth. The vote totals, when we found them out, showed that neither were especially useful: Matt won with 35% followed by Rebecca on 20%, One Direction 17%, Mary 15% and Cher 11%.

This first week of stats from Toby was similarly frustrating, yet also promising in the fact that two acts stood out as having the lowest volume of activity (Nu Vibe and Rhythmix) and two stood out as having the highest levels of negativity (Frankie and Kitty), and the bottom two was comprised of one from each pairing.

On the face of it, we would agree with the interpretation Toby offered when presenting the data before the results show – that the key metric ought to be lack of interest, rather than negativity. It is, after all, a vote to save not a vote to evict, and Frankie was comfortably midfield in terms of positive tweets. Why did these not translate into votes, and why were the votes that kept Rhythmix safe not reflected in positive tweets?

The answer may be demographic: Maybe Frankie-liking tweeters did vote, but were outweighed by Frankie-disliking non-tweeters. And maybe Rhythmix’s fan base are not on Twitter. (This would seem odd, though, as Tulisa’s rather bizarre comments – “they’re not saying we’re going to steal your boyfriend, they’re saying we’re women, let’s unite and stand strong” – suggest Rhythmix are squarely aimed at young females).

Or perhaps the neurons which fire when a desire to vote takes hold are different from those which fire up a desire to tweet. Perhaps Frankie’s fan base took to social media sites to defend themselves as much as him (as in the amusing Facebook feed posted by Martin F), but on some deeper level realised he was too awful to merit a vote. Maybe a lot of girls liked Rhythmix enough to vote, but did not feel they are cool enough to want to broadcast this fact to all and sundry. Being neither voters nor tweeters ourselves, nor indeed teenage girls, we at Sofabet are ill-equipped to judge such theories.

Do we then simply agree with Henry VIII’s comment: “I’d be wary of social media”? Or do we look for angles which could improve its predictive ability? Nick suggested last year that it might prove more useful to track whether an act is getting more or less attention week-on-week than they typically do, rather than comparing them to other acts. Toby is also thinking about analysing whether there is a difference in tweet activity during the Saturday show, after the show, and during the Sunday show.

We eagerly anticipate Toby’s refinements to his model as this season progresses, though we close for now with some words of caution from the man himself: “I’ll caveat this whole thing by saying up front, this is all a learning experience and a bit of an experiment for me… My gut feeling from reading the papers and looking at the traffic is that you can get some of the way to the right answer, but it’s going to be hard to say with confidence that the predictions from the graph will be right all of the time (or 80% or 60%) or anything else. I think they just become another piece of evidence that you can use as a punter (or a bookie) to inform your odds and your betting strategy.”

What’s your feeling about whether social media indicators – and which ones – can help us anticipate X Factor votes? Do please share your thoughts in the comments box below.

39 comments to Can analysis of Twitter predict X Factor voting?

  • Malcolm

    Very interesting.
    ” the key metric ought to be lack of interest, rather than negativity” I think there could be a lot of truth in that.

  • Simon "le chat"

    I would not have thought on its own social media can predict a winner – the vast majority of people who vote on the telephone are over 25 and they generally will not access for entertainment purposes. Digital Spy may have millions of threads and posts, but their core contributors write thousands and thousands of posts each that will distort the figures. Youtube is a different matter entirely. I know CHER and VICKERS had more “hits” than anyone else and didnt win but JANET DEVLIN is simply miles ahead of anyone else on all forums that on the evidence it is very hard to see her being beaten.
    These stats taken from digital spy are astonishing for so early in the competition. However while I don’t believe most people who vote on the performers are contributors of any of the data, there is a very strong case for JANET at 11/4. I wont back her though- there is a long way to go yet and with the program looking to generate interest there must be some hi profile heads rolling. Can’t wait for this week’s episode to see what the producers are going to do to sex the whole thing up – an argument between the judges for sure, maybe take MISHA down a peg, possibly Craig too and beef MARCUS up (yey!- wallet talking). I’m anxiously waiting for the song list to come out and to see what MARCUS is given and FRANKIE too. There is so much negativity on FRANKIE in the media at the moment on the basis he cannot sing that I can see him in the bottom 2 again and if that happens, he is toast methinks.

    Here are the stats that show JANET ahead of the field

    Some ITunes and YouTube Stats

    Ranked according to significant data:
    – YouTube: ‘Likes’ tally * Views tally /100
    – ITunes: Ratings tally * avg Stars

    YouTube

    Ranking. Contestant – Views – Likes – Dislikes – Views*Likes
    1 . Janet Devlin – 288077 – 3085 – 247 – 8887175
    2 . Sophie Habibis – 186098 – 1661 – 242 – 3091088
    3 . Rhythmix – 156138 – 1395 – 181 – 2178125
    4 . Kitty Brucknell – 142965 – 1334 – 501 – 1907153
    5 . The Risk – 140234 – 1230 – 122 – 1724878
    6 . Misha B – 145935 – 1106 – 201 – 1614041
    7 . Craig Colton – 129373 – 1053 – 206 – 1362298
    8 . Sami Brookes – 108022 – 947 – 146 – 1022968
    9 . Frankie Cocozza – 114350 – 669 – 1252 – 765002
    10 . Marcus Collins – 94892 – 796 – 140 – 755340
    11 . Johnny Robinson – 89669 – 658 – 444 – 590022
    12 . Nu Vibe – 88012 – 520 – 416 – 457662

    ITunes

    Ranking. Contestant – Ratings – Stars – Ratings*Stars
    1 . Janet Devlin – 208 – 4.5 – 936
    2 . Sophie Habibis – 141 – 4.5 – 634.5
    3 . Rhythmix – 110 – 5 – 550
    4 . Misha B – 97 – 4.5 – 436.5
    5 . Craig Colton – 88 – 4.5 – 396
    6 . The Risk – 86 – 4.5 – 387
    7 . Frankie Cocozza – 141 – 2.5 – 352.5
    8 . Kitty Brucknell – 86 – 3.5 – 301
    9 . Marcus Collins – 56 – 4.5 – 252
    11 . Sami Brookes – 45 – 4 – 180
    10 . Johnny Robinson – 60 – 3 – 180
    12 . Nu Vibe – 54 – 3 – 162

    • Donald

      As Simon has said Janet miles ahead on forums social media this year but like Simon wouldn’t back her just yet.

      She is highly unlikely to be over taken this weekend either or next or ever. She is very far ahead. Sophie doing okay considering little coverage etc. (Still can’t figure Sophie out)

      With Janet still looking producers Plan A maybe the simple solution is there?

      The Risk are an odd favouite. Will Simon really want a group to win when he couldn’t manage it? and a group has never won.

      On to elimination this weekend Social Media counts for little. The mob will be on there on Saturday night with the vast majority weekly passtime to slag the show off and contestants as they perform. Will they vote? Highly unlikely but they will influence general perception and the wider media who use twitter to an extent.

      Has anyone considered Gary having two in the bottom? Frankie despite bounce has every chance of being there especially with another bad performance and even an improvement on last week will still be bad.

      He didn’t get the votes last week, where he going to get them from this week? Is he Wagner II? I think Frankie has thrown the towel in really. Judging by the web he is not liked at all by the general public. He might have shown his arse to the public but they gave it one good kicking last Saturday. No votes.

      Finally on social media one of the girls in Rhythmix can’t wait to get a mobile with internet so she can tweet. Enough said.

      If social media right only Janet herself or the producers can beat her but still not backing her until I figure out Sophie and she gets a banker song choice. Beyonce suppots her to win according to some online reports.

      On Betfair plenty 1k plus pop up available to lay on Janet so she is being backed. The 3K from Sunday to lay went also. So opinion very divided in terms of gambling which why we here at the end of the day.

      Not to over worry about twitter and social media mob who don’t and most likely don’t vote either. But it is part of the decision process for sure and has the ever growing potential to plant seeds and perceptions of contestants like traditional media does before the viewer starts to watch and vote.

  • Curtis

    I’m incredibly wary of whether you can determine anything particularly significant from Twitter analysis, for many, many reasons. The limitations of the software used to do it, the demographic of twitter users as compared to X Factor voters, and the question about whether being talked about actually converts to votes.

    As mentioned in the article, I think the reason for all of the positive talk about Frankie was simply because there was a recognition of how bad he was and his fans felt a need to defend him. However, his fans probably didn’t vote him. I guess that as well as recognising he was poor, they probably also thought he was safe. We can expect a big sympathy bounce for Frankie this week for sure.

    So yeah, I felt happy to place a bet on Frankie for the bottom 2 despite the large amount of talk about him on Twitter, because I just felt that that wasn’t going to convert into votes, whereas I was very confident that Rhythmix were safe despite the seeming lack of Twittering about them.

  • fiveleaves

    I’ve used twitter with excellent success on all of these shows over the last few years.

    I don’t use tools, as I don’t trust them.
    I do it all manually.

    When it comes to XF I look for the number of positive tweets for each act over a certain time period. Always after the show.

    As someone who might get lots of positive tweets when they sing in an early slot, by the time it comes to voting viewers may well have totally forgotten their performance.
    Negative comments are of no real importance as it’s a positive vote.

    ofc you have to take into account the demographic. Twitter tends to be ‘trendier’ than your average viewer, but it does have a large number of Middle England Mums, who are the ones who pick the winner imo.

    They were clearly backing Matt and Rebecca last year over 1D last year.

    1D just had fanatical teens retweeting how ‘gawjuss’ they were, etc and very little support amongst anyone over 20.

    The Risk have much broader appeal and had a healthy lead on my stats on saturday.

    • This is interesting – I’ve been thinking about breaking the stats down to before the show and during / straight after the show. Might show the difference between the general chatter about an act and the specific show chatter.

  • fiveleaves

    As for Youtube.
    It’s the most unrepresentative of all of the sites.

    The main voters on this shows get their music from Tescos, not youtube.

    Vickers was much further clear of the other acts in her year and was also getting many more views than Janet.

    • Rob

      see post below

      agree with the reasoning about youtube not always right, but vickers was overtaken by someone with support. the risk are not even showing in the top 4 for youtube?

  • Rob

    fiveleaves your data sounds interesting but can you elaborate on your reasoning. for instance what is the time period you are taking? also how does the risk compare in actual followers and gains to the other acts? they are finalists imo, but i think i need more info before i’m ready to take them for the win. also are you correllating with youtube because matt was always the youtube leader as well (besides the divisive cher that is), but the risk haven’t got the following of the others their which again makes me hesitate for the win?

  • Rob

    btw is anyone else detecting a slight change of attitude towards kitty? i’m wondering if she is now going to be a bottom 2 perennial like katie waissel? i’m thinking if she keeps it up she may be heading for a comfortable top half finish which may mean even more surprise eliminations than last year.

    • Donald

      You could be right Rob, there is a change in attitude cos she can actually sing but the formentioned twitter mob save their worst for kitty also “Did she leave a card in the phonebox” being one twats best offering on Sunday.

      But there is a bit of a rally of support for her and also notice her social media bits better managed since Sunday, that tweet I posted about on Sunday now deleted from her timeline.

      But despite all the posts on here still one aspect of the whole thing not mentioned.

      Lets start it, who is getting radio minutes? Radio is what keeps twitter/ social media going during the week and DJ’s love their twitter and as fiveleaves idenfified Middle England Mums. Radio the beast here. Thoughts anyone?

  • fiveleaves

    Definitely agree that Kitty is winning over viewers.
    She had as many positive tweets as Janet on my stats.
    Obviously the pimp slot, as always a huge advantage.

    I don’t want to give all my methodology away, but as I said it’s after the show but not immediately after.

    As for how the Risk are doing on youtube. They doing fine it seems to me. Up from 8th to 5th on my list. Much better than JLS at this stage, who would have won if Cowell had wanted them to and better than Alexandra.

  • Rob

    perhaps kitty on one successful journey we have not seen before – from hate to acceptance (i hesitate to use the word ‘love’).

    the risk clearly have some momentum. but it could be because they are new compared to the others. as i’ve said they are now plan b if not the new plan a, but i think we need to see if the momentum can be maintained or if it has a plateau? keep us informed fiveleaves.

  • Curtis

    I personally think that Janet has appeal to “Middle England Mums”. Enough appeal to take her into the final 2 I’d say. However, I think she’s going to be one of those contestants who leads a lot of the early votes but doesn’t pick up enough floating voters and is pipped near the finish. I’d guess the people to do that are going to be the middle-of-the-road safe choice, The Risk. Yes, that is a prediction for a group to win which has never happened before, but that’s one reason why you could see the producers getting behind it, to freshen the show up and show the groups aren’t a pointless category.

    • Rob

      could be right curtis. it’s good to speculate. let’s consider a janet/risk final when all the middle england mums are voting. agreed that the risk are more generic/mainstream but surely the mums will vote for the clean cut, innocent looking oirish gal than the rapping boyband who want to do rude things to their daughters… just speculating of course, could go either way imo. my wife hates janet and loves the risk so evidence in my household is the other way!

      we should do more of these final one on one’s – i think it’s good to debate strengths and weaknesses that acts have over each other

      • Donald

        Sure is, Janet is seemingly getting big coverge regionally her local area UTV and that same area was enough to keep Eoghan Quigg topping the votes all the way to the final as the figures afterwards revealed.

        Janet not getting much coverage southern Ireland and hasn’t trended much if at all.

        But as already said until Janet gets a banker song or performance under her belt, very slow to put the money down.

        But it is getting to the point where Marcus money may have to be covered although no panic yet but who is capable of beating, Janet, The Risk or Marcus? Only other possibility Sophie?

        So back to elimination market and watching brief on win market for the minute.

        Be interested to see what Daniel thinks of elimation and swore was going to wait until the show but Frankie is very tempting at the odds for bottom 2 before he starts shouting into the mike and waying his arms around like an octopus again.

        Or else put it on Janet or The Risk for the win. Lets see how Marcus fares at the weekend.

  • Simon "le chat"

    Now is the time for cool heads, there’s only 2 weeks gone and another-what?- six to go? Far to early to pick a winner on a show that is struggling by its own high standards and needs to up it’s game.

    Imagine you are the producer, you are only two weeks in and the viewing figures are falling off the cliff. Advertisers are getting jumpy and revenue which the shareholders have already notionally banked isn’t materialising. Meanwhile “Strictly” is flourishing and you know it is the show on trial as much as any of the performers.
    You have to take action- what is it going to be? Well you have to make the whole show more appealing to win back and keep the viewers, and the only way yo do that is to have people talking about it so they will tune in again. How do you do this?
    Answer
    (i) Make the show more entertaining. Cut the remote rubbish songs that no one knows and concentrate on good well know songs and performances. Strictly don’t have any of these vanity unknown songs.
    (ii) Make the show less about the judges and more about the performers. Give the acts their choice of song and make the performances longer.
    (iii) Cut the competition altogether – it is seen what it is namely a cynical vehicle to extract even more money from the long suffering public
    (iv) Controversy. You have to have a good and genuine disagreement between the judges – maybe someone should clip Louis Walsh because he is a complete div and the public would love to see it.
    (v) Judges, speak the truth if an act performs badly. Frankie’s performance of “The Scientist” was the worst live act there has ever been in modern TV so don’t try and gloss over it Gary and others. someone have the guts to say “Frankie, that was absolutely dreadful, you were totally out of tune”
    The judges are supposed to be “experts” in the music industry- they should start behaving like experts and not being false to keep unseen others happy.
    (v1) Have all the acts on an even playing field singing similar numbers on the same week. Daniel is right when he reckons MARCUS could have nailed “Jar of Hearts” whereas Craig could not have nailed “move like Jagger”. Having the acts on a level field each week will quickly sort out the wheat from the chaff.

    It will be interesting what song MARCUS is given and where he is pitched. Looking at social media today there is precious goodwill for Frankie again- people have realised he is totally rubbish and wont buy a rehabilitation- so with Frankie again on the precipice they are NOT going to risk MARCUS. I am expecting MARCUS to be singing a well known song that showcases his considerable talents and for him to be near the end. As soon as that is confirmed I am off to take more of the 100/30 Corals still have on him being top boy.

    • EM

      I agree with all your points on how they could up the entertainment factor of the show but as its an entertainment show not a singing contest I don’t think we’ll see the more musical twists.

      I’m looking for better performances and a “favourite” going and a “joke act” staying this weekend to guarantee the press/social media interest rockets and the viewers follow.

      Jonny over Sami? Frankie over Sophie? Kitty over Marcus? Could be

  • Nicky

    The latest news (in The Sun and other places is that the theme for this week has been changed again to rock. Is this to promote Frankie? It would seem to favour him, although given the X Factor’s take on rock and Gary Barlow’s middle of the road music taste, he’ll probably do another Coldplay song. Or has Gary found it so hard to find a song for him they’ve had to change the theme specially? Unfortunately, singing like an asthmatic whose lost their puffer isn’t really a theme.

    It’ll be really interesting to see if the sympathy bounce applies to someone the public seem to have decided can’t sing. (Teenage girls may have raging hormones, but they also have ears)!

  • Simon "le chat"

    It’s awful to say Frankie sings lke an asthatic who has lost his puffer. He actually sings like a werewolf with laringitis and he will do really well to survive this week’s bottom two because he has been found out and the knives are out.
    I reckon the producers know Frankie cannot recover from such an iconic contempory TV performance on a par with Darius’s “Hit me baby” and hecould easily be thrown to the wolves with MARCUS brought forward as the stable’s main horse. I know I am a MARCUS and make no secret of it but if he gets a good slot and song he could storm t the first three in the betting. It is inconceivalbe there will not be a boy in the final so who is it going to be? MARCUS is the most talented and while it doesn’t matter about an artisists sexuality the fact Craig also appears to be gay can only further the Marcus cause. Perhaps that was the idea putting Mr Testosterone Frankie through to counterbalance the other two but if so it has backfired because Frankie cannot get over last weeks performance because he doesn’t have the capacity to improve. If MARCUS is given a good song and misses the first three slots I am off to Corals to have some more 100/30 on him being top boy (muttering to self about astonishingly generous odds, free money giveaway, extraordinary opportunity to cane bookies etc etc)

  • Boki

    Daniel, do you still think Johnny is expendable?

    • Daniel

      Hi Boki, not as expendable as Sami if last weekend’s running order and his big production tell us anything. Johnny is being fed some nice opportunities for one-liners too. This schtick may keep him in for another few weeks.

      • Boki

        Thanks, was thinking the same but wanted to check. But I’m still not sure what will happen if Johnny encounters Rhytm or Frankie in the sing-off. I would say they will save the girls and dispatch Frankie (if his bounce doesn’t succeed).

  • Simon "le chat"

    We are now back to ROCK WEEK. Honestly, what a pathetic cary on. Apparantly the switch is to test some of the performers “outside their comfort zone”.
    Well that’s Craig and Janet and Johnny for a start. Perhaps it will be controversial – the show needs to be to regain lost viewers.
    Cannot wait for next weekend and MARCUS o be showcased at long last.

  • Nicky

    Re: Johnny being expendable.

    I think he’s an interesting case regarding the question of Twitter and other social media as indicators. He doesn’t appear to have much support at all. However, if the ‘Middle England Mums’ and Strictly viewers are taken into account, I think Johnny is someone they’ll support. Although he appears to be this year’s joke act, he is very likeable – more Ann Widdecombe than Wagner. Also, I think the older voters will warm to his unassuming, witty, working class vibe, as they did with Stacey Solomon.

    I agree that Sami will be on the producer’s expendable list. Others may include Sophie and (sorry) Marcus in my opinion. Personally, I think Craig is the best of the boys. Backed him at 16-1, so a bit biassed. Come on Biscuit Boy! (Shock story in Heat: Craig Colton confirms He’s Gay. And tomorrow he’ll announce he’s fat)!

  • Nicky

    A quick question about Rhythmix: surely they won’t want Tulisa to lose two acts on the trot?

    • Donald

      Nicky just on here now Rhythmix doing okayish online as some figures above show.

      Who knows what producers thinking though but as you say agree highly unlikely they want Tulisa to lose two acts on the trot.

      If they decide Frankie a lost cause that might be their effort to steady the viewing figures maybe. Damage limitation quickly especially when they know he going no where anyway. Big call but one Simon would do in seconds. Not his type of artist at all.

      So Rhythmix probably a lay this weekend?

  • Donald

    With the knives out for Frankie and his confidence shot to bits together with the public unlikely to be easily won over he may just crumble into bottom two again. At 5/2 available for bottom two and 7/1 to go it is very tempting but he may get a One Direction esq backing track with some backing singers or even a choir to try save him.

    Expect better sound and audio production this week as last week was bad at times.

    Daniel heading for three weeks right wk 1 Amelia wk 2 Nu Vibe so best wait really but it is about value so going to take the chance the public don’t budge and have a bit of a gamble on Frankie bottom two and going. Can cover with Daniels prediction and in running if need be.

  • Simon "le chat"

    I will only have a heart attack if MARCUS gets a good song and decent slot and is THEN in the bottom 2. If he goes first with a remote undheard of song and gets negative comments I’ll be expecting it.
    However Marcus will be with us for a few weeks yet- FRANKIE is in real danger of going this week- people are fed up of him and will be watching out for a poor performance and if he delivers this again, he’s in the bottom 2. I rihnk he will be in the bottom 2 anyway. Who with? Difficult to say at the moment until we know the running order but boring/standard acts include SAMI SOPHI and maybe time to pop a bit of JOHNNIS bubble, although be careful because JONNY can sing. Will make mind up when the schedule is published.

    • Boki

      But what’s going to happen in the following scenario: Sami 1st slot, Frankie last and both end up in bot2. Could they save Frankie again (when the obvious intention was to ditch Sami)?

      • Andrew

        Hi Boki – experience with Katie Waissel last year suggests the show would not be shy about saving Frankie again in such a situation.

        • Rob

          i think this is only the second year that a producer favourite has fallen into the bottom 2 on the first week of public voting (does Rachel Adedeji count?). last year katie was handed a decent running order slot – but not the pimp slot the week after – and managed to survive. changing the theme to rock suggests that the producers are going to pull out all of the stops in an attempt to rehabilitate frankie. imo though they need to dampen down the media frenzy to have any hope! he may escape this week due to sympathy bounce and serious pimping but expect him to return to the bottom 2 very soon (which was what happened to rachel adedeji and katie waissel).

          • Rob

            i think this is only the second year that a producer favourite has fallen into the bottom 2 on the first week of public voting (does Rachel Adedeji count?). last year katie was handed a decent running order slot – but not the pimp slot the week after – and managed to survive. changing the theme to rock suggests that the producers are going to pull out all of the stops in an attempt to rehabilitate frankie. imo though they need to dampen down the media frenzy to have any hope! he may escape this week due to sympathy bounce and serious pimping but expect him to return to the bottom 2 very soon (which was what happened to rachel adedeji and katie waissel).

            ps scrap that – i’ve just seen the daily star headline. that could well be a bottom 2 slot on the bounce

          • Simon "le chat"

            You might be right Rob
            FRANKIE is singing “Get your rocks off” by Primal Scream. Plenty of room to bury his voice in a big production and note there is no range in the notes of the song (like Valery etc but not like the Scientist). this song will suit him and there will be loads of production and dancers but the producers might eb trying a bit too hard with this act and the damage done could be irretreivable. Frankie is a fraud as a singer and people have found this out

  • Rob

    well i’m off on my hols, so no time to wait for the pre match write up to place my bets. i’m going to stick my neck out and say marcus for elimination. i’m expecting him to go early and rock won’t suit him. there’s been some movement on his price but i got 12’s with VC. another thing that’s influenced me is that he was the last to be made safe last week. i think there is always something in the last to be safe, as it has to be plausible with the public. the public just wouldn’t have believed it if it had been misha/janet/risk – so his vote must have been fairly weak. also he was so distraught, on the point of meltdown – if he is in the bottom 2 i doubt he’d be able to deliver his saving song effectively due to his temperament. also will hedge with johnny a candidate also. i don’t think the public are getting this act at all. will look to do some savers once the shows over if it doesn’t look like the above will pan out.
    other thoughts:
    i don’t think at the moment that it’s going to be frankie – sympathy bounce + pimp slot + easier song should keep him safe.
    sophie has a lot of strength on the social networks but if she’s on first and gives another unconvincing rabbit in the headlights performance, she could be in trouble.
    sami looks like the obvious saver bet post show as have little confidence that she do anything in the rock category other than a power ballad – will depend on her placing in the order i guess.

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