March 2011 - Sofabet.com

Eurovision Betting Analysis: Can Kati Wolf’s Dreams come true for Hungary?

Posted by Daniel

A springer in the market over the last few weeks has been the Hungarian entry, ‘What About My Dreams’ sung by Kati Wolf.

Since being revealed as the country’s internal selection, it has been at or near the top of internet opinion polls organised by Eurovision fans. This had helped its price tumble to around […]

Eurovision Betting Analysis: Will Denmark enjoy ‘A New Tomorrow’ at Eurovision 2011?

Posted by Daniel

Last winners of the contest in 2000, runners-up in 2001 and fourth in 2010, Denmark has a very respectable Eurovision record since the turn of the millennium.

They have a reputation for generally choosing radio-friendly if middle-of-the-road pop. This year is no exception, with the national selection won by a band called A Friend in […]

Eurovision Betting Analysis: Can Dino Merlin Win Eurovision 2011 for Bosnia?

Posted by Daniel

The highest-ranked entry in the Eurovision 2011 betting market I have yet to deal with in this set of articles is the Bosnian song, currently just over 15-1 on Betfair and seventh in the pecking order with High Street bookmakers.

‘Love In Rewind’ is sung by Dino Merlin, a veteran of the music scene in […]

Eurovision Top Tip Update: The Albania Code

Posted by Daniel

Is there such a thing as a natural level for countries in Eurovision? I think there is. That is, if every country sent indistinguishable songs, you could predict pretty accurately how the voting would go based purely on each country’s traditional voting allies.

This is a wider view of the argument I developed in my […]

Eurovision Betting Analysis: Should Punters be ‘Running Scared’ of Azerbaijan?

Posted by Daniel

Just before the deadline date, Azerbaijan released a glossy video premiering their Eurovision 2011 entry. Ell and Nikki sing ‘Running Scared’ whilst dressed in white and draped in each other. Watch it here.

The country has participated in three Eurovisions to date, coming no lower than eighth. Ell and Nikki are also, at the time […]

Eurovision 2011 Draw: First Analysis

Posted by Daniel

Today the organisers of Eurovision, the EBU, made the draw for the two semi-finals and to decide the berths in the final of the automatic qualifiers (the so-called Big 5). Here it is. Over the forthcoming weeks before the big event, I will be posting some in-depth thoughts on what I think is an important […]

Eurovision Betting Analysis: How ‘Popular’ will Sweden be at Eurovision 2011?

Posted by Daniel

In the most volatile early betting market I can ever remember, Sweden became the latest country to challenge for Eurovision favouritism in the run-up to their National Final, better known as Melodifestivalen.

The land of Abba and Diggy-loo diggy-lei has long been considered Eurovision royalty, but they’ve rather fallen from grace in recent years, culminating […]

Eurovision Betting Analysis: Can Blue Win Eurovision 2011 for the UK?

Posted by Daniel

Blue became the latest act to challenge for Eurovision 2011 favouritism ahead of the official unveiling of their song ‘I Can’ on the BBC’s Graham Norton Show. At the time of writing they can be backed at odds of 8.2 on Betfair to win it for the UK.

The song leaked briefly on youtube today […]