The X Factor master plan went to script this week – don’t let talk from those involved in the show about being ‘shocked’ by the result fool you. This is exactly what they wanted to happen.
Most of all they wanted to keep both of their two headline-grabbing acts, Katie and Wagner, in for yet another week. That is why they unfairly gave them the best two positions in the running order. The judges heaped praise on Katie, and created controversy for Wagner. The talk was of little else on the forums before the results show.
Laying Wagner at 6-4 in the elimination market means that I have now made a four-figure sum on the brilliant Brazilian staying in the competition over the course of the live shows. The vote Wagner campaign continues apace and his odds of winning X Factor have shortened to 20/1. (But if you’re tempted, read our article on why Wagner can’t win first).
As I said in yesterday’s post, I also took 5/1 about poor old Paije finally being ushered out of the competition.
We have been saying for a while that the producers have been keen to get rid of Paije, and finally they succeeded in getting him turned over. They tried it a week ago by giving him another poor draw, but Simon overdid his criticism and that – combined with the reaction to the voting leak – saw the boy through.
This time around they didn’t give him the pimp slot – even though he deserved it far more than Katie. But nor did they antagonise his core fans with yet another blatantly early slot. In the comments they damned him with faint praise, just as they had done with Aiden. Sure enough, his voters were evidently less motivated than last week.
I added to my winnings by backing Paije at 1-4 to lose the sing-off to Cher. That may seem like short odds, but I felt it was easy money in a two-horse race.
As I said yesterday, I had expected it to be Katie rather than Cher against Paije in the singoff, but a big shoutout to our commenter Allan who singled out Cher to be in trouble at 20/1. That wasn’t a winner, of course, but bets at those odds could have been profitably hedged on Betfair during the sing-off.
I also suggested in our Sunday article that stitching up Cher with a poor draw and song arrangement suggested producers were happy with the possibility of saving her from the bottom two this week. The reason? Cher should now enjoy a substantial sympathy bounce – the last two survivors from week 7 sing-offs, Olly and JLS, went on to finish second – and so she could well be worth a look in the “top 3 finish” market.
As you will know if you were watching the Digital Spy forums yesterday, the source of the Twitter vote leak of the week before was not able to give any information out this weekend. However, we are in contact with the person concerned and hope to have an exclusive interview this Friday.
In the meantime, we will also be examining the Wagner and Katie phenomena, and Andrew will look at the battle to win in his usual Wednesday column. Do check back on Sofabet throughout the week.
Excitement is mounting at the now crucial stage of the competition. As always, we are eager for your views in the comments box below. Do you think this is a fair reading of the weekend’s events?