There’s a certain sense of déjà vu about this week’s elimination market. Last Sunday’s casualty Aiden was a relative outsider to go, leaving those at the head of the betting – Katie, Wagner, Paije and Mary in that order – fighting for safety yet another week at roughly the same odds they were seven days ago.
We also must wonder again whether we have a single or double elimination. We have guessed wrongly in the past, but a double elimination seems more likely this week, if only because we are seriously running out of time.
What we said last week still stands, despite not getting every single prediction right. So what does that mean this time round?
I don’t think he’s this year’s X Factor winner, but I reckon they may try and keep the vote Wagner bandwagon going for one more week – he STILL hasn’t had the pimp slot. As a result, I will be laying Wagner for next elimination yet again. However, I will do so cautiously before Saturday’s show, because if he comes on in the first half of the running order, be warned, as this was the sign last year that Jedward were being sacrificed.
If Wagner is pimped, the three who will be scrapping it out in some form in the bottom three are most likely to be Katie, Mary and Paije. Katie is an obvious favourite to finish bottom of the pack, with no sympathy apparently left after four sing-off survivals, and a rumoured Beatles song choice of ‘Help!’ which seems unlikely to, er, help. The 10/11 on offer to be next eliminated is of some interest.
In my opinion, the one act she would most likely outscore is Paije, who proved us wrong last week, but had a few things working in his favour. Firstly, a reaction to the Twitter vote leak halfway through the polling period that put him in last place. This, combined with Simon’s dismissal of him as having “zero chance of winning”, seemed to engender a lot of anger among Paije fans. The truth hurts.
Mary has clearly moved from the Tesco checkout till to the meat counter if her butchering of songs over the last month is anything to go by. However, the Irish and older demographic has helped her avoid the bottom two so far, and rumoured song ‘Something’, covered by Shirley Bassey, is very much in her comfort zone.
Considering which acts judges would likely save in a sing-off involving combinations of the above, we should bear in mind that the survivor of the showdown during this week of the competition has often managed to bounce enough to reach the final (JLS in 2008, Olly Murs in 2009).
Simon Cowell has no interest in bouncing Paije, who I think would therefore be sacrificed if facing a sing-off against Mary or Katie (who has no future bounceability left). This reasoning means the 11/10 with Betfred in their double elimination market (so you win if he’s one of two departures) is good value. This is the third time we have tipped Paije, but as John Adeleye showed, when the writing’s on the wall, sometimes it pays to persevere.
The big four of Rebecca, Cher, One Direction and Matt Cardle are long shots in the elimination market, and would be an even bigger shock than Aiden last week. If any of them is vulnerable, most would cite the Marmite contestant Cher, though Rebecca’s dull performance of ‘Candle In the Wind’ in last week’s pimp slot may have demotivated the Liverpudlian’s fanbase. For the first time, I feel she has to raise her game.
Disagree with any of these views? Let us know who you think is in danger, using the comments box below.