X Factor Week 5 Betting Post-Mortem

In our Sunday Update article we pointed out that a Treyc/Katie sing-off was the most likely outcome, but were confused about how Cheryl would be called on to vote. Turns out we weren’t the only ones. Chaos reigned among producers, Dermot O’Leary, Cheryl and the other judges. The result being that our cautious Saturday tip for elimination, Treyc, was shown the door, leaving Katie to survive a third time.

What happened? It looked to us like a straightforward cock-up by Dermot, who was probably supposed to have gone to Louis and Dannii before Cheryl. That would have left Cheryl to save Treyc and take it to deadlock. But Dermot mistakenly went to a clearly-unprepared Cheryl first, and the show simply ran out of time to recover the situation.

Fans on internet forums vented their rage. Yes, a mediocre performer with no chance of winning the competition and who mangled her final song was allowed to stay in the competition. But only at the expense of a mediocre performer with no chance of winning the competition who mangled her final song. Big deal.

It did provide us with our first sing-off shock on the Betfair market. I added to my small bet on Treyc to be eliminated by backing her at 5/1 halfway through her rendition of ‘Unbreak My Heart’ as nerves seemed to get the better of her. It was hardly surprising to be offered such a price after Katie appeared to sit down in defeat at the end of her number. Having already backed Katie to be eliminated, I was in a position to win either way.

Of course, Katie is even more than before public enemy number 1, and a red-hot Evens favourite to go first in what should surely be a double elimination next week. This format means that we are betting on who will get the lowest number of public votes, as they will leave automatically, before a showdown between the next two lowest-placed performers.

As someone who has just been in the bottom two for the second consecutive week, not even managing a second sympathy bounce, rationally speaking, Katie seems destined for last place next week. Even if she isn’t, a bottom three finish that would put her in another sing-off is the least she can expect.

There is no doubt, however, that the focus will continue to be on her in this week’s tabloids, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out up to and including next week’s show. As some of the bigger hitters move towards the danger zone, a week with the hottest elimination favourite of the series so far may just see some value elsewhere.

This week, Andrew will return on Wednesday with his view of how the leading contenders are being manoeuvred, whilst I will be back on Thursday to consider the Wagner effect this coming week, before our Saturday preview.

Agree or disagree with any of this? If you have any comments about this weekend’s shenanigans, and its implications for next week’s elimination market, let us know in the comments box below.

1 comment to X Factor Week 5 Betting Post-Mortem

  • Andrew

    Annoying for punters who backed “yes” in the “deadlock this week?” market (and for Treyc, of course), but I guess when you’re betting on live tv, cock-ups are a risk you have to accept. (It is slightly tempting to wonder if they scripted it all for the controversy value, but I don’t think so – it did look like a straightforward flub from Dermot in going to Cheryl after Simon.)

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