Another Saturday night show and more confounded expectations. Treyc, the candidate we felt most likely to be eliminated first this week, has drifted from 5/2 to 9/2 after singing second from last with a whole segment of the show to herself. Whilst we advised caution in Saturday’s post given the difficulty of guessing the producers’ strategy, we certainly didn’t expect Treyc to get such a great draw.
Meanwhile, headline-grabbing Katie Waissel was thrown to the wolves. We argued that it would probably take something spectacular to save Katie from the bottom two, and we certainly didn’t get that: a terrible draw, a tepid performance, and judges’ comments to match. They even used her VT to remind people of a cause of her unpopularity – her previous history in the recording industry – rather than to play for sympathy with a montage of harsh tabloid headlines.
Katie is now the current favourite to be eliminated first this week. I added to my small bet on Treyc by backing her on Betfair at 2.68 for elimination during her performance (she is now around 2.36). But I’m certainly not discounting Treyc. In addition to her great draw, she looked fabulous and sang well, so she would be unlucky to be in the sing-off. But at least two of the arguments we mentioned yesterday still stand: she is coming down from a sympathy bounce, and she does not appear to have a big fanbase.
A Treyc/Katie sing-off appears the most likely combination in the event of a single elimination. Treyc lacks impact, but even so, I think it would be highly controversial to save Katie against someone more deserving in every respect. Would they really force Cheryl to choose between her two acts? The only way I see Katie surviving in such a situation is it being sent to deadlock in the name of “fairness”, but on the basis of last night, there’s no guarantee she would win this.
Mary was awful and would justifiably be in the sing-off. She needs her core support and some sympathy votes after a painful performance. The same was said of Aiden last week, however, and it was enough for him then. I do feel that Mary would survive against Katie or Treyc for three reasons: she hasn’t been in the sing-off before; she would perform a number that suited her; and the show wouldn’t want to risk losing Irish viewers at this stage of the competition.
Aiden managed to improve considerably this week, and is surely in no danger. I also now expect the increasingly likeable Paije to survive, after he showed Wagner that he can also do a mash-up and stole the mantle of the ‘fun’ act from Katie.
That leaves us with Wagner. As the show went on I half-expected that Wagner would be in the pimp slot, and his brilliantly staged performance would certainly have been a fitting show-closer. Instead the producers chose to put him in the relatively poor 7th slot in the running order – where, to make things worse, he was immediately followed by Matt Cardle, who once again hit it out of the park.
It is very hard indeed to guess what the producers are thinking here. Are they confident Wagner can survive, or are they – surprisingly – happy to see him the bottom two this week? If he is up against Treyc, it would be exceedingly controversial to take him through, though he could conceivably do so in a deadlock.
A Katie / Wagner sing-off would be a mindbender of epic proportions. What on earth would each perform and how would the judges vote? Has the warmer tone of Simon’s comments last night set himself up to take it to deadlock, allowing Wagner through to enjoy a sympathy bounce with a long-awaited pimp slot next week? Or is trying to analyse such a prospect too much for any sane individual?!
What do you think would happen in this situation, and any of the others mentioned? Let us know what you think in the comments box below.