X Factor Week 5 Elimination Market

I had hoped that by November, there would be little deadwood left, we would be down to single eliminations, and I could therefore get really stuck into betting on who would leave each week. Instead, after a few weeks of single departures, we still have plenty of dross and an alleged return to double eliminations, with all the problems that entails.

Trying to second guess the strategy of producers has become a tricky business, as this double elimination could potentially see the departure of both the headline grabbers of the series so far, Katie and Wagner.

So caution is advised before this Saturday’s show. I plan to be taking more of a position in the market once I have watched it, and I will again provide a Sunday Update. However, there are some good reasons for still taking a little bit of the 5/2 currently offered about Treyc being eliminated.

Firstly, she benefited from a sympathy bounce last week, and as we have already pointed out, this phenomenon more often than not only lasts a week.

Secondly, she is someone who producers have shown no interest in keeping in the competition. Uninspired song choices, some poor recent draws, and even an alleged lack of enthusiasm from her mentor Cheryl have kept her under the radar.

And thirdly, per Nick’s analysis in the comments to last Sunday’s post, there appears to be negligible buzz about Treyc judging by Twitter and iTunes reaction.

We have to be careful about analysing song choices before the show, as a different arrangement can turn it into something completely different (witness Aiden’s version of ‘Thriller’ last week).

However, this week’s apparent choice of Aerosmith’s ‘I Don’t Wanna Miss A Thing’ for Treyc only seems to reinforce the idea that producers are being lazy in what they give her to sing. It’s the third number she will cover that was also performed by Danyl Johnson last year. It strikes me as an incredibly insipid choice, just as ‘Relight My Fire’ was last week.

On the other hand, Wagner allegedly doing Elvis’s ‘Viva Las Vegas’ could well see another huge production and excellent draw, whilst Katie’s rumoured choice of ‘Don’t Speak’, by No Doubt, will really suit the timbre of her voice.

We considered Katie’s chances of enjoying a second sympathy bounce earlier this week, and concluded that she could well struggle to avoid the bottom two. Still, her performance and the reaction to it promises more impact than Treyc’s, and that might be enough to see her avoid last place – which would be all that counts if it is, indeed, a double elimination.

Of the others, Aiden, Paije and Mary have arguably been performing in a mediocre way of late, and all are possibles for the bottom three danger zone. One more off week for any of the three may stretch the loyalty of their supporters and put them in trouble, so I will be watching out for their draw, performance and judges’ comments closely. However, all three have a larger fanbase than Treyc.

Without so much core support, impact or the backing of producers, Treyc has a higher mountain to climb than anybody. For that reason, I’m hoping that any small bet made today on her being eliminated can then be hedged if one feels like it at a shorter price on Sunday.

This strategy is based on the idea that once Wagner has his Elvis moment, he will drift in the elimination betting, as will Katie if she puts in a strong, emotional performance. But this can only be guesswork until the show takes place, and my stakes will be small enough to reflect this.

In the comments to Monday’s post, your consensus was indeed that Treyc is the one to be on this week. Anyone have a different opinion today?

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