X Factor Week 4 Betting Post-Mortem

It certainly paid to wait until after the Saturday show before betting on the sixth elimination. Our pre-show tip Paije had not previously seemed favoured by producers, but received a good draw and song choice. Belle Amie, who had previously received more than fair treatment, were given the most uninspiring song possible and the graveyard slot of third in the running order.

As our Sunday Update article indicated, it doomed them to the bottom two. While we were far from sure who would be there with them, we at least suggested that the second favourite to go, Wagner, seemed likely to escape again, but highlighted the possibility that relative outsider for elimination Katie was in danger.

We couldn’t recommend her at 18/1 however, as we were fairly certain she would be saved in any sing-off against Belle Amie. During their showdown, I had over £600 at 2/9 on Belle Amie being eliminated, turning my small loss on Paije into a third weekly profit in a row.

This is the fourth predictable sing-off result in a row (and each surviving act has been the second one to perform): Katie has generated headlines for the show, and it was clear producers would want her in for at least one more week. I think Louis put the situation to deadlock safe in the knowledge that she would still go through.

Will a second sympathy bounce occur for Katie? The phenomenon is certainly paying dividends this series, with Treyc the latest to benefit despite a poor draw and boring song choice this week. We will consider whether it can work for Katie for the second time in this series before next Saturday’s show.

Belle Amie found that, like most acts that benefit from a sympathy bounce, it often only lasts a week, which is not good news for Treyc fans. But they may take comfort in the fact that Wagner must be nearing the danger zone and Katie’s reinvention seems to have failed. Aiden, Mary and Paije have to raise their game too.

As usual, Andrew will be back on Wednesday considering the bigger picture and looking at the top end of the scoreboard, and on Saturday we will preview that weekend’s shenanigans. And in the meantime, as always, we’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments box below (all credit to Allan, who in the comments to last week’s post astutely pointed to Belle Amie with Aiden as a lively outsider).

3 comments to X Factor Week 4 Betting Post-Mortem

  • Andrew

    A further thought on Nick’s iTunes analysis (from the comments to yesterday’s post) – it didn’t flag Katie as being in danger, which suggests that people enjoy her performances without wanting to vote for her. Ouch.

    Complete opposite with Treyc, who scored low on iTunes but survived, surely due to sympathy votes – so it’s very hard at this stage to see her not slipping back into the bottom two this weekend.

  • Allan

    Cheers Daniel. Yep, a nice win on the Bellamy.

    This week am thinking TreyC is a strong pick for the chop. Clearly one of the most unpopular contestants left, and am struggling to see who the judges would kick out rather than her, especially as Waissel may well get the sympathy bounce…3/1 is more than fair, and I’d have her closer to 6/4.

  • yeh its treyc 4 me aswell but surely this week must b a double elimanation they r running out ov time as the final is on dec11

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