Predicting Britain’s Got Talent: And the last shall be first

No sooner has Eurovision finished than Britain’s Got Talent limbers up for its closing week. If you’re contemplating a bet, especially on the semi-finals, here’s one thing you should be aware of: the remarkable correlation between performance order and the vote in the three previous series.

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Eurovision final betting: The morning after

Germany’s win is a fantastic result for the contest, in my opinion – well done Lena. I didn’t rate her chances beforehand, but was happy for her and to see the advice I gave to family, friends and Saturday’s edition of The Times – to back Turkey each-way – pay off.

In the final, I […]

Eurovision final betting: Part two

In 2010, my sense of who will win Eurovision has been in conflict with the betting markets for the first time in many years. I’ve never really seen the televoting appeal of the three early market leaders: Azerbaijan, Germany and Israel.

What’s more, only Azerbaijan can rely on friendly votes, and even this has been […]

Eurovision final betting: Part one

The first of two articles on the big day looks at which countries one should back and oppose for a Top 10 finish. This is a very lively market on Betfair and with other bookmakers. I’m going to take a dose of my own advice, written a few days ago:

Therefore, the weaker qualifiers in […]

Eurovision Top Tip No.1: Drawn to a close

[Part of Daniel Gould‘s ten-part series of tips on Eurovision betting].

The impact of the draw on voting in the contest is hotly debated among Eurovision anoraks. That we can never know for sure just how much of a difference it makes means this argument will run and run.

The draw ‘hawks’, who play up […]

Eurovision semi-final 2 betting: The morning after

Well, this semi-final promised carnage, and so it proved, with Sweden and Croatia, both fancied for the whole contest, failing to qualify. I was very happy with another five-figure profit due to the success of my two biggest bets, on Turkey and Georgia qualifying.

I watched the late replay on BBC3, and what struck me […]

Eurovision semi-final 2 betting: The big night

Eurovision bloggers and pundits are scared of the second semi-final. With relative strength in depth, it is being talked of as ‘difficult’ or a ‘bloodbath’. There are doubts about some favourites, glimmers of hope for some outsiders.

Two facts help me make sense of it. Firstly, with four songs standing little chance, there are only […]

Eurovision Top Tip No.2: From semi to final

[Part of Daniel Gould‘s ten-part series of tips on Eurovision betting].

With the introduction of semi-finals from 2004, armchair punters have had the chance to watch most of the contestants perform in the contest before betting in the final. All but the automatic finalists (UK, Spain, France, Germany, and last year’s winner) are now on […]