Judging by bookmakers’ lists and our comments section, punters finally got stuck into The Voice after the quarter final. Leah McFall is now a general price of 1/3 in the outright market. Well done to Andy for snapping her up at 3/1, which you could get before last Friday’s show.
Still, the format allows us to look at some more interestingly-priced match bets this coming weekend. There has been a consensus on these in the Sofabet forum. Here are my thoughts at this stage.
Continue reading The Voice UK 2013 – Semi Final Preview
As guessing producers’ intentions is such an integral part of predicting Simon Cowell shows, it’s always a worthwhile exercise to look back, with the percentages in hand, and try to reverse-engineer what they might have been thinking. And we reckon, looking at the semi-final results, that they must have concluded this: if Attraction were to win, Richard and Adam would have to be eggsterminated.
Admittedly, there is a good deal of guesswork involved given that we don’t know the raw vote totals for the semi-finals, only the percentages. (And all credit to ITV for this – it’s more than the BBC and EBU deign to tell us). And the quality of semi-final opposition would also impact the totals. But if we make a working assumption that a similar proportion of viewers vote each day, we can combine those percentages with the ratings to guesstimate how the votes were distributed across the semi-finals among the acts who would make up the final.
Here are the figures:
Continue reading BGT 2013: The Eggstermination of Richard and Adam
[UPDATE: Full voting figures for the final and semi-finals can be found at the top of the comments section to this article.]
Attraction duly won the day from the pimp slot, but betting on Britain’s Got Talent isn’t for the faint-hearted. The Hungarian act drifted out to Evens from 1/4 after what was perceived to be an underwhelming new routine. They were joined at that price by Jack Carroll, for whom the judges stated their support as tonight’s winner.
Meanwhile, the Eggs Factor came during third-placed Richard & Adam’s performance, when a violinist stole the show with her talent for pelting Simon Cowell. That will get the headlines tomorrow, but the main point of interest for the TV talent show betting community may well be: who did he want to win the final?
As Chatterbox noted, he didn’t look best pleased at the result, though perhaps it was the lingering smell of raw egg on his clothes. A repeat of either of Attraction’s previous performances would have seen them more easily home and dry. Was this a failed nobble or not? As ever your comments below are welcome; many thanks to all of you for sharing your insightful opinions throughout the series.
If the market is right, tonight the seventh series of Britain’s Got Talent will be won by an act that’s not from Britain. A suspicion that producers might prefer not to sail into these uncharted waters, allied to Simon Cowell’s general willingness to wrap himself in the flag, is partly what initially made us Attraction sceptics.
However, their treatment in the semi-finals – pimp slot, four-judge standing ovation, and gushing praise – has convinced us we were wrong about that. If producers weren’t entirely sanguine about the prospect of an Attraction win, there’s no way they would have risked allowing them to build up such a head of steam.
If they win, it’ll be fascinating to see if this poses any existential crisis for the franchise in the longer term: “Britain’s Got Talent” is an odd name for a variety show featuring worldwide acts, as, interestingly, The Sun have pointed out in their editorial this morning. (After some heated debate in the Sofabet comments, we should perhaps point out that on a purely personal note we’d be delighted for Attraction if they win – they’re hugely talented and we’re more Diogenes than Nigel Farage.)
Producers should, in theory, be able to engineer the result they want tonight. Unlike in previous years, when the final followed straight after the semi-finals and exhausted decision-makers may arguably have made *cough*Jai McDowell*cough* one or two slight miscalculations, this time they’ll have had a week to pore over the voting figures from the semis in order to decide on the running order and their strategy for tonight. What should we be looking out for?
Continue reading BGT 2013 Final preview: Where’s the value tonight?
Attraction sailed through tonight’s final semi with a performance that had the judges on their feet, tissues being reached for across the nation’s living rooms, and punters rushing to back them down to 4/9 favourites for the victory next Saturday night.
Which means we have to address again the question Boki asked earlier in the week, imagining this eventuality: are they unstoppable?
Continue reading BGT 2013: Semi-finals post mortem
A fourth good night in a row for favourite-backers, with Francine Lewis final-bound along with Asanda Jezile. But will it be a fifth? Ladbrokes have priced up Saturday’s final semi, with Attraction the 1/4 favourites. It’s then 5/1 Aliki, 10/1 Jordan O’Keefe, 16/1 Steve Hewlett, 66/1 Incognito and Maarty Boorkman, and 100/1 CEO Dancers, Duelling Pianos and The Glambassadors.
Debate has raged all week in the Sofabet comments about producers’ likely attitude towards the Hungarian shadow dance troupe. Are you expecting them to be nobbled in the semi, nobbled in the final or given every help to win? And – bearing in mind we now have five singing acts out of eight so far – who do you reckon will get the wild card? Here’s another clean slate for discussion.
On Tuesday the EBU provided the split between the jury and televote average rankings for this year’s contest, with winners Denmark topping both. However, unlike in previous years, these split results don’t actually show us what the scoreboard would have looked like if only juries or televoters had voted and points been awarded accordingly.
To see how widely the conventional points system might differ from the average ranking system, consider a hypothetical country which 20 juries in the final ranked 1st and 19 juries ranked 26th. If the split results showed us what the points situation would have been had only juries voted, as they did in previous years, we’d see this country scoring 240 jury points. Now, all we’d see is an average jury rank of 13.17.
Compare another hypothetical country which finished 13th with every jury. Jury points: 0. Average jury rank: 13. An extreme case, but Armenia’s semi-final performance provides a more practical example of how the average rankings might be misleading.
Continue reading Eurovision 2013: The Split Results
It was another semi where producers left us in little doubt about their intentions: The Luminites were given the mother of all pimpings, and the voting public dutifully played ball. Pre-Skool then beat out Joseph Hall to become the first dance act through to the finals, joining comedian Jack (named by Cowell at the start of the show as the act to beat so far) and the four singing acts.
Here’s a clean slate for dissecting the fourth semi-final. The acts: Chasing The Dream; Alex Kierl; Poppin Ron; Francine Lewis; Shockarellas; James More; Club Town Freaks; AJ & Chloe; Asanda Jezile. Have at it!